Annatar
Jr. Member
Posts: 983
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« on: March 08, 2021, 05:22:09 AM » |
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« edited: March 08, 2021, 05:30:28 AM by Annatar »
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Voter registration trends suggested a closer race than the polls.
For me personally, the main reason I believed Trump would do better than the polls is that in most states, in particular the Midwest, Republicans had outperformed state polls 3 elections in a row, 2014, 2016 and 2018 and there was no sign pollsters had changed their methodology to remove this bias. Hence I believed Trump would do better in states with a lot of non-college whites than the polls were suggesting just as Republicans had done in 3 previous cycles in a row.
I also currently believe Republicans will outperform polling in states with a lot of non-college whites in 2022 just as they have for 4 cycles in a row.
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