KY, MS etc. Results Thread

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I think based off the data so far that Beshear will win by 2%, my prediction was Bevin +4 but I think Bevin’s unpopularity trumped polarisation.

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DeSoto county fully in on CNN, Reeves +23, Cindy Hyde Smith was +20.

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Comparison of 5 statewide races in 2015 to 2019, GOP won them by 10.4% on average in 2015, won them by 14.4% on average tonight, 4% improvement, big outlier was Governor race.

https://twitter.com/ryanmatsumoto1/status/1191898417577918464

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Overall I would say last night was probably on balance the best night the GOP has had since 2016, basically no net losses in state legislative seats and gains in statewide offices.

Going from south to north, in Mississippi the Republicans won every statewide office, including flipping the Attorney General’s position meaning that there are no elected dems statewide. They also picked up 4 seats in the senate meaning they now have a 36-16 majority, which is 2/3 now although that is largely a symbolic fact, it doesn’t mean much.

Moving north in Kentucky, Republicans outside of the Governors race won all the state races, flipping Secretary of State and attorney general and they improved their average margin in the statewide races by 4% vs 2015.

In Virginia the Clinton margin alone would have given the dems 23 seats in the senate and 56 in the house but somewhat surprisingly in many areas republicans ran ahead of trump in 2016 which is a very good sign going forward, dems were only able to pick up 2 senate seats with republicans running 1.5% ahead of trump in the senate although the dems did gain 6 seats in the house going to 55 basically matching Clinton’s 2016 performance.

In New Jersey the Republicans flipped a senate seat although that was always a given as it was in a Trumpy area, they gained at least 2 seats in the state assembly and might gain 2 more.

In sum outside of Bevins catastrophically bad performance which I’m sure the media will focus on the GOP did pretty well running slightly behind, even or ahead of 2016 numbers which was a fairly good election for the GOP.

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Hood's performance was not bad for Mississippi. Losing 5.8% in a deep red state in an off year in this polarized electorate is very decent.

I agree that Hood did pretty well and he should be congratulated for his performance, nonetheless the election in Mississippi was pretty bad for democrats, they lost the only statewide office they had and 4 more senate seats.

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The difference is minimal, think about it like this, 21/40 is the same as 52.5/100, 55/100 is basically 22/40. Overall the results were basically the same.

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It is plausible if Trump had not gotten involved Bevin might have lost by 4-5% and the dems might have won the SOS race.

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Well overall turnout was up from 2015 to 2019 in KY and the GOP statewide candidates did 4% better on average in 2019 compared to 2015 so if one believes turnout is what determines electoral outcomes, I don't think it is, I think persuasion matters than high turnout helped the GOP since turnout rose form 2015-2019 and the GOP did better on average. 

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The down-ballot Republicans tied themselves pretty closely to Trump, just look at Cameron and his performance in the big suburbs was identical to Trump.

https://twitter.com/SteveKornacki/status/1192061931928068096

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MS results all in, GOP came into this cycle with 31/52 seats in the senate, they had gained 2 seats before the election and were at 33/52, they flipped 3 seats in net terms and will have a 36/52 majority in the Senate.

In the house they had 74/122 seats and looks like they will end up with 75/122.

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Dems may have only won the governorship, but it's clear there was a left-ward shift for KY, and that was WITH huge mega turnout.

Trump won by 30%. None of the Republicans even topped 20%, and only one really topped 15% by that much. I mean, the Dem in the SoS race was only behind 4% in .... again... a Trump +30 state.

In 2012 Romney won by 22.7% and 3 years later in 2015 the average GOP margin in statewide races was 8.5%, running 14.2% behind Romney.

In 2016, Trump won by 29.8% and 3 years later in 2019 the average statewide margin excluding the governors race where you had a weak GOP candidate was 15.1%, running 14.7% behind Trump.

Republicans did as well relative to trump in 2019 as they did relative to Romney in 2015.