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To reiterate, Republicans depend on winning the white vote by inflated margins to offset the minority vote in Texas, Georgia etc. Republican's margin with white voters come from silents and baby boomers. As they die off and as millennial whites age into peak voting years, the GOP margins with white voters will recess towards the national average and that is not enough to sustain GOP majorities or even pluralities in TX and GA.
This assumes that virtually no Gen X-ers or Gen Y-ers will be getting any more conservative as they age. In other words, for most people, once you choose and ideology and a party affiliation, they never change. Not a good assumption to make.
Millenials and Xers have remained fairly steady in their partisan leanings. In fact Xers in particular have probably gotten more Dem leaning with age.
In 1996, voters aged 18-29, being born in 1966-1978 voted for Clinton by 19%, in 2016 those voters now aged 38-50 split 50/50 between Trump and Clinton. Gen X voters have gotten a lot more Republican over the last few decades.
Consider the fact that Trump won whites aged 30-44, by 17%, most of these being Gen X and won whites over the age of 65 by 19%. The Pew data if it was right should have whites over 65 being much more Republican voting then whites in their mid 30's to early 40's but that wasn't the case in 2016.
