Wisconsin Megathread v3: GOP in MASSIVE DISARRAY

[Annatar]

As of right now I don't believe it would be fair for dems to complain they lost because of Milwaukee, Hagedorn according to Decision Desk leads 5,801 and the fall off in the Milwaukee margin vs April 2018 is only 4,173. If the final margin is below 4,173 then Milwaukee can indeed be blamed for the loss.

[Annatar]

It looks like Neubauer got 44,000 more votes then Dallet, an increase of 8% whereas Hagedorn got 165,000 more then Screnock, an increase of 37%. I assume there were virtually no voters who switched, I can't really see Dallet voters going for Hagedorn and vice versa so it looks like of the extra 209,000 voters who came out, 80% were Republicans, which of course begs the question why Republican turnout was so low in April 2018 compared to this year.

[Annatar]

Would recommend this presentation, data begins in 2012, over past 2 years GOP has overtaken Democrats in Party ID, gone from a 5% advantage for Dems in Party ID to around 2% for GOP. Will be interesting to see how far this trend continues, would love if there was similar data for other states like PA that we could look at.

https://law.marquette.edu/poll/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/MLSP52PresentationFinal.pdf