Media takes I've seen this morning have tended to be along the lines of "the AfD have hit their ceiling". Given they only made minor improvements on 2017, that isn't a totally outrageous claim - even if it seems a little premature. But I do think what those sorts of takes are showing is a change in the narrative towards far-right parties that has started to take place after the relative disappointment of the EU elections. They're obviously still strong; may, or may not, be growing - but the media "establishment" has become a little more sanguine over the threat that they pose. Which is itself is a development that could have its own consequences
What concerns me, is that AFD support is still improving despite Migrant Numbers having gone down to pre-crisis levels. Migration should be returning to the prominence it had as an issue until 2014 - but it isnt. We are having big economic problems. Why arent they being talked about?
Not only does it show that people - rightly or wrongly - perceive that integration is not working, also it begs the question: what will happen when a 2015 situation returns? We cannot wish away the fact that with climate change, conflict in the middle east, etc., this will happen again. There will then be a very sinister effect on German politics.
The migrant issue in 2015 was the rocket fuel the AFD needed to take off, now it is in orbit it doesn't need that issue any longer. The AFD can campaign on issues of heimat (homeland) and identity indefinitely, and can also position itself as the anti-elite party regardless of migrant numbers. Issues of culture and identity are perennial and the AFD can campaign on those issues for as long as Germany exists.
