Would Clinton have lost Virginia to a "normal" Republican?

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No, I think most political analysts as well most people on this forum severely overestimate the impact of a candidate on voters choices, since 1988, with the exception of 2008 which was a unique year, no party has exceeded 51.1% of the vote, most voters, over 90% are locked in with 90% of dems and GOP's voters respectively always voting for their party no matter the candidate. Of far greater importance are the structural trends underway in the electorate, post grad whites moving towards the dems, high school grad whites moving towards the gop etc.

In that environment, I think no republican would have won Virginia, someone like Rubio maybe does better in NOVA, but can he overcome a 200k margin, I doubt it. Even combining Romney's numbers in NOVA plus Trump's numbers in the rest of the state does not make up the margin.