State Political Evolution

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I agree that due to demographic changes, the shift of young voters in the sunbelt towards the Dems and the shift of young voters in the midwest towards the GOP does portend that the states will re-align accordingly. I should note out though that the sunbelt should probably be divided into 2 regions, the south-west and the south-east.

In the south-west, the age gap is very small and there is evidence that the GOP is doing better among young voter's, in Nevada for example, Trump only lost the 18-29 vote by 17 points, 52-35, while losing the state by 2 points, meaning 18-29 voters were only 15 points more democratic then the state as a whole, a smaller gap the national gap which was 17 points. Furthermore, voters over the age of 65 were actually democratic, voting for Clinton by 5 points. Hence, the age gap was only 12 points, compared to the national average of 26 points.

In Colorado, 18-29 voters voted Dem by only 14 points, whereas the state went Dem by 5, meaning 18-29 voters were only 9 points more democratic then the state, one of the smallest gaps in the nation. And again, voters over the age of 65 went for Clinton by a point, hence the age gap was small, only 4 points, virtually non-existent.

The south-east though is a different story altogether and the age gaps are massive, likely meaning that states like Georgia will shift Democratic in the future.

In Georgia, 18-29 voters went Dem by 30 points, 11 points more then the national average and they were 35 points more Dem then the state as a whole. 65+ voters went for Trump by 36 points meaning the age gap was 66 points which must be one of the biggest in the nation. Likewise, the age gap in North Carolina was 45 points with 18-29 voters being 26 points more democratic then the state.

As a rough guide, I think any state where the 65+ to 18-29 age gap exceeded the national average of 26 points and where the 18-29 vote was more then 17 points more democratic then how the state voted, 17 points being the national gap, can be said to be one which is more likely then not to trend in favor of the Democratic party.