Wisconsin Megathread v2: Hagedorn vs. Neubauer

[mcmikk]

Now that he has an opponent, Walker is going full negative, as expected. I'm too lazy to find the exact article, but to paraphrase, Rebecca Kleefisch said Evers threatens our way of life in WI. The GOP is going to beat this teacher porn dead horse into the ground all the way until election day, whether the voters of WI are going to fall for this crap again remains to be seen.


In other news, flawless beautiful Russ Feingold endorsed Evers today.

https://twitter.com/russfeingold/status/1031216354479800326

[mcmikk]

Don't overreact to this poll, guys. It's August. Polling will become more important in, like, October. For now, I'm going to keep looking at fundamentals, which is that Walker is an R running a D wave year in a polarized swing state. All signs point to liberals in WI being energized, and Walker's fandom in WOW isn't going to be enough to save him. He also has no President Boogeyman to run against, and Walker's strategy has always been to take the low road.

Signs all point to Walker losing, but don't take anything for granted yet. He's not Safe bc muh 3 times in 4 years, but it's not Titanium D bc muh Blue Wave. Tossup is a good ranking for this race.

[mcmikk]

Good ad by Team Evers.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dtkmrnsdmak&feature=youtu.be

[mcmikk]

Anyone else seeing this nonsensical Kleefisch-Barnes feud?

Kleefisch accused Barnes of kneeling during the national anthem during an event at the State Fair, but said she didn't see it herself(bc she was looking at the flag and respecting it like a Real American) but that someone(unidentified) told her that Barnes did. Everyone consulted by the press said Barnes was standing, and Kleefisch doesn't have a single person to back up her claim. Barnes is calling her out hard on Twitter, and Kleefisch is sticking by her story.

The dog whistle has become a bull horn.

[mcmikk]

That seems to be the one argument that people claiming that Walker is favored have left: That the polls were wrong in 2016. Of course, it's not a good argument, and often those who make it end up doing worse than the polls suggest, not better. However, I think it's pretty clear to anyone following this race how much trouble Walker is in, and I think that even he knows that he's losing right now.

Yeah, I mean, he's just saying it to rile his people up. He obviously is seeing his internals and I bet he is down in them, or tied at best. I just think it says something about people in general that they would lie about that stuff just for some raw-raw pep tweet. It's symbolic of just how little certain types of pols care about the truth, which coincidentally Walker is a poster boy for.

On a side note, Walker being down really shouldn't be that surprising. He was never a particularly strong incumbent as far as I am concerned. His wins were pretty small and they happened in GOP wave years, and the recall happened under a Democratic president who was still more unpopular than popular at the time, with the same approvals that got Democrats blown out in 2010. Not to mention Walker was an incumbent and they usually have an advantage.

An actually-strong incumbent ought to have winning margins that look more like Tommy Thompson's, where he won 4 terms in a row, and every race but his first was won with mid-high double digit margins. Walker's winning margins have nothing on that. And at least Thompson could win his first election under the 6-year itch of a Republican president, where Democrats won the House popular vote by just shy of 10 points.

Meanwhile, Walker's first Democratic wave election and he's already on lagging behind in the polls, and as an incumbent no less. He's just a bland empty suit Republican who won a few elections and somehow got branded a master of elections and politics.

This. All of this.

[mcmikk]

Walker going with a different strategy than Trump when it comes to the polls:

https://twitter.com/McCormickJohn/status/1044650149048397825

Walker has reached the final stage: acceptance

[mcmikk]

Scott Walker said this will be his last term if he wins his third term.

Do you keep deleting your previous posts when you put a new one on this thread?

[mcmikk]

My prediction: The final margin is the 2010 result, but with the parties reversed. 

That sounds about right to me. Iirc Walker won by about 7-8 points in 2010, and I think Evers will probably win by around that much too.

[mcmikk]

My prediction: The final margin is the 2010 result, but with the parties reversed. 

That sounds about right to me. Iirc Walker won by about 7-8 points in 2010, and I think Evers will probably win by around that much too.

Walker won by about 5.5 in 2010, and it's possible that Evers could win by that much, but I think it'll be somewhat closer.

I honestly don't think it will be that close. Mainly due to polling showing Evers consistently ahead, sometimes by hefty margins, but also due to all the signs that point to the #BlueWave hitting WI hard. Baldwin is leading by double digits, Supreme Court Election earlier this year, special elections in the state legislature, etc. I don't think Evers will win by double digits like Baldwin will, but Walker's incumbency and popularity with the base will only help him so much when most of the electorate will be the liberal base that despises him.

[mcmikk]

Ok. So, apparently Trump will be rallying with Vukmir, but Walker may not be present because Trump's aides thinks he should avoid Walker due to his low reelection prospects.

https://www.wisconsingazette.com/news/political/trump-to-stump-for-vukmir-but-not-walker/article_3d80296e-d3d3-11e8-8950-3fa6398e0682.html

AND Obama is coming to Milwaukee on Oct. 26. Can't wait to see him!

Wait, he doesn't want to campaign with Walker because he thinks he's gonna lose... But he still campaigns with Vukmir?

I mean I know he's not very bright but COME ON.

[mcmikk]

Baldwin will probably win by over 20 points at this rate. I am thinking that will be more than enough to push Bryce, Engebretson, and Liegeois over the top. Wisconsin will probably have a 6-2 Democratic delegation after this years elections.

Wisconsin is elastic, but a 20 point win is borderline impossible.
In 2008, Obama had everything on his side, and he only won by 14.

This. I think Baldwin wins by 12-14 points atm.