Wisconsin Megathread

[mcmikk]

So Wisconsin posters: If you had to put money on it right now, does Walker win re-election?

Tossup, but I'm gonna predict that Evers pulls it out. He's the best that Wisconsin Dems have. Republicans/conservatives have lackluster numbers here and Democrats/liberals have good numbers.

[mcmikk]

Since i live in the district next to SD 10, I have been hearing radio ads for the republican primary. pretty typical stuff other than Zimmerman has been running attack ads against Jarchow for not being 100% loyal to walker. i do see that Jarchow has locked up most of the endorsements from current and former elected officials including the third HD Rep in SD 10.

What's so interesting about SD 10, exactly?

[mcmikk]

Well well well....turns out Scott Walker's Foxconn boondoggle will now cost $4.5 billion (up from $3 billion). Bye bye Walker

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Let's hope. This deal is so unbelievably trash and I hope it brings Walker down so we can get a liberal in there that isn't gonna give away 4 billion dollars to a foreign corporation. We won't even break even on this investment for several decades at best.

[mcmikk]

Well well well....turns out Scott Walker's Foxconn boondoggle will now cost $4.5 billion (up from $3 billion). Bye bye Walker

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Walker is such an idiot

From the party of fiscal responsibility, my dudes.

[mcmikk]

WI Dems should really run on investing in rural infastructure and schools. Walker has won by using rural resentment pitting urban vs. rural while not actually doing anything for rural communities.

This, with particular focus on the large strip of Obama-Trump counties in Western Wisconsin.

[mcmikk]

WI Dems should really run on investing in rural infastructure and schools. Walker has won by using rural resentment pitting urban vs. rural while not actually doing anything for rural communities.

This, with particular focus on the large strip of Obama-Trump counties in Western Wisconsin.

Evers/Vinehout ticket needs to be in the works, like, yesterday.

[mcmikk]

A new poll just released by PPP has Evers leading the field at 29%, with the second best(Vinehout) at 11%. 28% are undecided.

[mcmikk]

Evers/Vinehout teaming up would probably be the strongest option for Dems, right?

Yeah, I'd say so. Problem is, Wisconsin doesn't have running mates. The primaries for Governor and Lieutenant Governor are separate, and the winners run on the same general election ticket.

[mcmikk]

Evers/Vinehout teaming up would probably be the strongest option for Dems, right?

Yeah, I'd say so. Problem is, Wisconsin doesn't have running mates. The primaries for Governor and Lieutenant Governor are separate, and the winners run on the same general election ticket.

Any chance she drops down?

And who's running for Lt. Governor, anyway?

3 people, the most notable imo being Mandela Barnes, a former State Rep. I don't really know much about any of them.

[mcmikk]

Go Evers!

[mcmikk]

Evers' fundraising numbers are in. He currently boasts "2400+" donors, an average donation of $85.23, donors from 71 of Wisconsin's 72 counties, with 94% of his donations coming from Wisconsin. He's currently raised $312,000 without loaning his campaign any money.

[mcmikk]

If the Governor's election goes anything like SD-10 went today, Walker is done.

[mcmikk]

I wonder how many Walker/Baldwin voters there's going to be in the WOW counties. I'm also curious if there's going to end up being more there or in the rurals.

That will be interesting to see, if there are any. Walker hasn't exactly distanced himself from Trump. He wanks Trump off constantly ever since he won the nomination. That said, I'm thinking there will be more in WOW than in rural areas, unless the Gov nominee ends up being Paul Soglin or someone like that. But it won't, it will be Evers. Walker was successfully able to prey on rural-urban resentment in previous campaigns, but since Evers isn't from Madison or Milwaukee, and is generally pretty inoffensive and seems like a guy that can communicate with rural voters particularly in Western Wisconsin. As for Baldwin, she has her own strengths and she's pretty good in Western Wisconsin so I'm thinking she and Evers will get similar margins there.

TLDR chances are if Baldwin does significantly better than Evers, it will be because of ticket splitters in WOW. That's my hunch.

[mcmikk]

I'm having a tough time picturing what sort of Milwaukee suburban voter voted for Bush twice, voted for McCain and Romney, and voted for Walker three times amongst all that, but then considered Trump a bridge too far and is now voting against all Republicans because of that.

Ones in WOW, where Ron Johnson outperformed Trump by roughly 30,000 votes in 2016, and in a midterm where upballot trends will start to translate downballot. See: Arkansas Senate Election, 2010.

[mcmikk]

If I had to guess, I'd say Burns places 1st, though I'm not sure about who else advances.

[mcmikk]

Burns has run an interesting campaign. He's been a very open liberal progressive Democrat, and makes no bones about it. He openly derides the notion that the judicial is an apolitical, nonpartisan entity, and that that thinking is what caused all these right-wing judges to get in there in the first place. I admire his boldness, and his offbeat, unorthodox campaign is very appealing to me, potentially because it reminds me of someone I am a bit fond of

Needless to say, I'll be rooting for him. I'm excited to see progressives finally start taking back the state Supreme Court. It would be great to see the two liberals advance and the horrendous WI GOP gets locked out of the General, but at the same time it would be nice to see the conservative get smacked in a head-to-head.

[mcmikk]

When will results come in?

Polls close at 9 PM EST.

[mcmikk]

Live results by county available here.

[mcmikk]

Journal Sentinel calls it for Dallet and Screnock.

[mcmikk]

So is Screnock gonna get pinned under 50 or not?

Most likely, but even if he got to 50% there would be a runoff anyway.

[mcmikk]

So is Screnock gonna get pinned under 50 or not?

Most likely, but even if he got to 50% there would be a runoff anyway.

IK, but I just wanna see dems win the majority of the pv in the state again.

True. I think they will.

[mcmikk]

I'm making a county map of which party got the majority. Dems have already flipped Kenosha county from 2016, and it look like they're outperforming Clinton by a lot in western WI.

Pretty much every Wisconsin Dem will. Clinton was uniquely awful for rural areas, including the swingy Driftless Region, Western WI. Hell, Feingold won 6 Trump counties in 2016.

[mcmikk]

Piss poor Milwaukee County turnout that Dallet will need to address in the runoff. If she can get more voters to turnout there she has it in the bag in April

She'll probably have it in the bag regardless.

[mcmikk]

Here is what the combo map looks like now. I'm going to bed, hopefully we're at 100% by the time I wake up.

Looks good, this is about what Democrats need to win statewide. As important as turnout in Madison and Milwaukee are, Driftless pretty much decides elections here.

[mcmikk]

Who is the favorite to win the run off?

Should be Dallet. She did really well in the Driftless region.

What's really impressive to me, frankly, is Dane County. Yes, the liberals combined did really well out west, but Dane turned in an 83-17 liberal win with 25% turnout. That's outstanding.

Yeah, especially in an election where turnout is expected in the single digits--all good signs.

Yep. Dane County has plenty of #Resistance types who are fired up and you can bet that turnout will be pretty juiced up there in the General as well.