Did Trump set a new trend in the Rust Belt? (user search)
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  Did Trump set a new trend in the Rust Belt? (search mode)
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Author Topic: Did Trump set a new trend in the Rust Belt?  (Read 1801 times)
Light Yagami
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« on: June 24, 2017, 11:51:19 PM »

They were always swing states. Well, depends on the state.

Michigan/Pennsylvania = Lean D states (+2-3D). Generally vote Democrat, but a Republican can win here if they run a strong candidate for the region versus a weak one. Even Clinton barley lost these two states (though, she did not go after traditional Dem voters)

Wisconsin = +1-2D slightly D, but recent elections of Walker and Johnson have tilted this state a bit (IMO). I think Rubio could have won this off WoW turnout (remember, Trump did extremely bad in WoW yet still won the state. Classic R win here would be around Walkers)

Ohio = +3-4R more Republican then before, but I'd say in general has a +5R pattern.

Iowa seems to be more Republican leaning overall, though you do have to remember it is a state prone to wild swings. Look at 1984 to 1988 (+16 Swing to Ds), 2004 to 2008 (+11D swing), and this election (+16R swing). Even 1988 to 1992 resulted in a heavy swing back to the GOP and a return of much of the traditional GOP vote due to the farm crisis (Dukakis won several Republican counties that have not flipped back sense). if the Republicans cut farm subsides as has been proposed I could see this state swinging hard back D. Though, overall does have an R win. For the rest, I think a left-wing Sanders type (or Sanders himself) would win in states like MI/PA/WI but the drawback is struggles in states like Virginia (even though you have NoVA being full of government margins enough could easily swing back R look at Gillespies race), Nevada (though, this state does have an anti-establishment streak), maybe Colorado (tougher to say actually since you do have Denver/Boulder which are extremely liberal, but the suburbs could flip), and DEF Florida (which is overall a lean R state). So there are different paths for Democrats to take.

EDIT:Sorry if bad grammar, english is not my first language.
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