If this is a re-alignment election; why?

[Burke Bro]

I would say we’re in a period of dealignment, like America during the 1970s. In many ways, the current era, which started with Reagan, has come full circle. We’re back to a crisis in the Middle East, inflation due to supply chain problems (which the fed is trying to manage by increasing interest rates), and a domestic political situation that seems more unstable than ever. The once-dominant Reagan coalition of economic conservatives/evangelicals/security hawks has fallen apart. The only question is how the crisis of the day will be resolved and by which party, and I’m relatively certain that it won’t be resolved by either Biden or Trump, who are too unpopular and polarizing to win an overwhelming electoral mandate. If Haley or DeSantis won the Republican primary in 2024, I think we’d be having a much different discussion, but I guess we’re going to have to wait until 2028 and watch as sh* really hits the fan over the next four years.

[Burke Bro]

I’m relatively certain that it won’t be resolved by either Biden or Trump. If Haley or DeSantis won the Republican primary in 2024, I think we’d be having a much different discussion.

And you think either of them could solve the problem? They would be way in over their heads, as extremely decisive figures without any semblance of a dedicated base filled with rabid supporters.

Perhaps you’re right. Both of them are still very much in the mold of what we traditionally think of as a Republican president. Both could’ve won in a landslide against Biden, only to immediately lose their mandates to circumstance and inability to distinguish themselves from the old guard. Thinking of Herbert Hoover.

[Burke Bro]

I can also see a different and much darker scenario where Trump wins in 2024 but doesn’t have the popular support and large majorities in Congress to have much of an effect on national policy. So acting on his worse impulses, he turns the presidency into a dictatorship. He then gets assassinated a la Julius Caesar (because that’s what happens to dictators who don’t have strong institutional support), becomes a martyr, the country descends into violence, and in his place rises a new authoritarian leader who represents the realignment.