Post-Realignment Electoral Map?

[Burke Bro]

Here's some food for thought. Assuming political realignment happens in the near future, what would the electoral map look like (15-25 years from now)? I imagine partisan loyalties would lie more with income than race and religion. I suspect demographic groups would vote like this:

Solid Democratic (Lower Income) Poorer Whites, African Americans, (Hispanics?) & Millennials

Solid GOP (Upper Income) Wealthier Whites, Asians, Boomers & Gen X

I assume there would be a lot of swings states. Thus, the electoral map would be prone to more wild swings (Eisenhower/Johnson/Nixon style).

Discuss with maps.

[Burke Bro]

I think history suggests that the next alignment will look something like this:

GOP: "White" Hispanics, upscale minorities (winning about 51-59% of the Asian vote), wealthier voters, Gen Xers and whoever is left of the boomer generation.

Democrats: Hispanics who don't identify as white, millennials, Gen Zers, African Americans, and a slight majority of poor whites.

Two questions marks I constantly contemplate about this alignment: to what extent the Dixie south shifts, and whether the first GOP president wins New York or Texas in their victory. These two questions will determine the geographic underpinning to where the GOP will set up shop moving forward.

This seems about right. Come realignment, I'm curious as to how increased Democratic support among poor whites will shape the electoral map (the South and Midwest in particular). Also, how might GOP support among wealthier whites reshape the Northeast? A split Hispanic vote has me puzzled, too (Could we see the Southwest drift back towards the GOP with this new "White Hispanic" bloc?).

There are so many questions left unanswered. Shifting voting blocs are sure to make more states competitive. It all has me wondering if the electoral map will be much swinger than it is today.

[Burke Bro]

As Republicans, then, are making inroads into Hispanics and Asians, even as the Democrats begin to cut into the Upper South's WWC voters and working class minorities.

This is similar to what I imagined. Perhaps Dems could make gains in the Rust Belt (MI & IN specifically) by appealing to WWC voters, while increased Republican appeal among Hispanics make the Southwest competitive?

[Burke Bro]

After witnessing all this discussion, I decided to make my own map.

I was going to write an explanation, but decided that'd take forever.