2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Minnesota

[Idaho Conservative]

With 7 seats, it's pretty obviously gonna be 4 dem seats in the Twin Cities and 3 gop seats in the rurals.

hard to get 4 dem seats without cracking the cities, which wont happen.  you can get 2 urban d+1 suburban d OR 2 suburban swing seats

[Idaho Conservative]

With 7 seats, it's pretty obviously gonna be 4 dem seats in the Twin Cities and 3 gop seats in the rurals.

hard to get 4 dem seats without cracking the cities, which wont happen.  you can get 2 urban d+1 suburban d OR 2 suburban swing seats

what are the numbers on those?

It's doable if you crack Hennepin but not Minneapolis:

[Idaho Conservative]

With 7 seats, it's pretty obviously gonna be 4 dem seats in the Twin Cities and 3 gop seats in the rurals.

hard to get 4 dem seats without cracking the cities, which wont happen.  you can get 2 urban d+1 suburban d OR 2 suburban swing seats

It's doable if you crack Hennepin but not Minneapolis:

what are the numbers on those?

Green: Clinton+43
Teal: Clinton+19
Brown: Clinton+6 (but Trump only at 43)
Yellow: Clinton+5 (but Trump only at 43)

they lean dem but could both fall, there is a lot of ticket splitting in that area and especially in a midterm there would be a risk.  They do lean dem but that is not a 4D-3R map.  But this is still useful, it shows how difficult a 4D3R map would be, given that this is already very gerrymandered

[Idaho Conservative]

Yeah, folks without Minnesota ties do like putting the Cities together, but that would never, ever happen (and I appreciate you acknowledging that it wouldn't!) unless Republicans got a trifecta and really felt like flexing their muscles. Keeping Minneapolis and St. Paul separate is sacrosanct.

Well again its really not the best map for the GOP. I made it with non partisan intent but at the same time IMO its like splitting Bucks in PA right? Anyway was just an interesting fact that keeping the cities together wouldn't be a bad idea even in a fair map if it wasn't for local/parochial factors as it fits pretty neatly.

in general, keeping the cities apart is better from a COI perspective.  Also, better for Republicans, actually.  Apart they need to take in some dem leaning inner suburbs.  Neither party would want to put them together, helps Dems in suburban districts and messes up Dem incumbents.  Omar can't win in a suburban district anyways.

[Idaho Conservative]

This is probably as "plain" of a map that MN would find acceptable, as long as Omar doesn't mind losing some inner ring suburbs.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/ed56d09d-cd12-49b1-9c08-58160bc1511d





Easiest pairing in the Twin Cities is 2 districts between Anoka + Hennepin,  1 between Ramsey + Washington, and Dakota going south or west for the rest of the fourth district.   

MN either gets a bipartisan map or court map.  This map is pretty close to what you'd get with either, except the Minneapolis+Anoka which is pretty ridiculous.  I doubt the court would be THAT partisan.  Also, this would endanger Omar.  Omar did pretty poorly in by the more suburban parts of her district (in the primary) and Anoka would vote solidly against her.  She's not super popular, as evidenced by her underperformance in the general, so putting Anoka in would make her even more vulnerable to a primary challange.

[Idaho Conservative]

Yeah, folks without Minnesota ties do like putting the Cities together, but that would never, ever happen (and I appreciate you acknowledging that it wouldn't!) unless Republicans got a trifecta and really felt like flexing their muscles. Keeping Minneapolis and St. Paul separate is sacrosanct.

Why do you want to crack the Hmong population?

That's not what cracking is.  Also, it is tradition in MN each city gets its own district, I don't see that changing.  Neither party would have a reason to do that.  It would upset Twin Cities residents, the Dem base in the state, and make suburban seats bluer, which would upset Republicans.

[Idaho Conservative]

One thing combining the cities would accomplish would be to make Ilhan Omar safer in her primary.  Not that the DFL even wants that, though.