2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Missouri

[Idaho Conservative]

Here's another option the GOP has, keeping Columbia outside of 3 Kansas City based districts.





So each GOP district voted 4 points to the right of the state for President, and Kander didn't win any districts besides the Democrat sink in St. Louis (for those wondering, neither did Obama).

Wow, that's amazing.  All red districts to the right of the state AND it looks clean.  The key was utilizing every rural seat except 1.

[Idaho Conservative]

7-1, every Trump district at least 60% Trump.  Wagner is shored up and no incumbent Republican is drawn out of their district, though some will have a lot of new constituents.  I doubt Cleaver even runs with this map,  MO-5 is now Trump+27, an astounding 40 point move to the right.  Even if 2022 is a blue wave he would be a severe underdog. 

[Idaho Conservative]

What about Rucho v. Common Cause? Federal courts don’t get involved in partisan gerrymandering cases. I only looked at partisanship. I didn’t care to look at anything else.

Look up the Voting Rights Act.

I didn't look at race when drawing the map. All I looked at was GOP strongholds.

Still not legal.  Tbh I think the VRA is invoked too often in redistricting, but in this case they'd have a legit point. 

[Idaho Conservative]

This election, Trump appears to have prevailed in Missouri's 2nd by a narrow ~3,675 (~0.8%), so Republicans will probably want to radically reconfigure that district.

Wagner won by a comfortable margin.  Trump+15 (2020) would be a good benchmark, 20 if you wanna be real safe.  Though I doubt many suburban moderates voted Trump this year, except for fast-growing areas, 2020 is likely the floor for Republican performance in the suburbs at the presidential level.

[Idaho Conservative]

Here is the next in the series of Pubmander "lites" in states where the GOP has control of the lines, that uses some tricks to shore up a bit MO-07, while keeping the map beautiful and the chops at a minimum and aesthetic. Snatching KC from the Dems is a no go, unless, to avoid a potential dummymander, the Pubs are willing to tri-chop the black neighborhoods of KC. While  that is probably legal since the hood is not currently VRA protected (as I understand its current incarnation), I strongly doubt that is a bridge that  even Pub crazies in the state such as, e.g., Senator Hawley, would want/dare to cross.

KC can be cut 3 ways pretty easily, and it wouldn't look too ugly.  All 3 would be at least Trump+20-25

[Idaho Conservative]

Here is the next in the series of Pubmander "lites" in states where the GOP has control of the lines, that uses some tricks to shore up a bit MO-07, while keeping the map beautiful and the chops at a minimum and aesthetic. Snatching KC from the Dems is a no go, unless, to avoid a potential dummymander, the Pubs are willing to tri-chop the black neighborhoods of KC. While  that is probably legal since the hood is not currently VRA protected (as I understand its current incarnation), I strongly doubt that is a bridge that  even Pub crazies in the state such as, e.g., Senator Hawley, would want/dare to cross.

KC can be cut 3 ways pretty easily, and it wouldn't look too ugly.  All 3 would be at least Trump+20-25

"Trump + 20-25" is in the "Steve King clone can lose in a Dem wave year" territory. I imagine that some incumbents might be unhappy.

Here's a less aggressive gerrymander with no dummymander risk.  Hartzler takes in some of the Dem leaning suburbs of KC but her district is Trump+34, titanium R.  Even Blunt won it by 18.  Cleaver's seat is now Trump+5, R+2 CVPI.  Tossup/Tilt R.  While making all the KC seats safe takes a pretty aggressive split, Cleaver's seat can easily be made competitive without endangering anyone else or making the map too messy.  I think this district would be extremely vulnerable in 2022.

[Idaho Conservative]

Well what you actually did was bifurcate KC, not merely detach "Democratic suburbs," which other than Independence, which itself is not heavily Democratic, really don't exist in any material way. Your map if adopted would be hated, not only by those in KC, but the rurals far away that are bound to them. It would cause a backlash, and most probably a state law to shut down such egregious gerrymandering. And for what? A CD that will probably stay Dem anyway. As a partisan Pub, you might think about channeling Mitch McConnell, who tries to think several steps ahead about end games.

As to KC, here is what a gerrymandering light map would look like that probably would not cause a backlash, and moves the KC CD down to about 12 points Clinton over Trump. Anyway, thanks for your interest!

I question how accurate what you are saying actually is, since KC is already combined with rural areas and Jackson county is already cut, I simply did it differently.  Was there major backlash to the current map? Also, you cut rep Hartzler out of her district.  Your reference to McConnell having a good strategy is laughable.  He singlehandedly handed the Dems the senate by blocking $2k stimulus checks.