Merkin's Maxim: When in doubt, predict that the present trend will continue.
The present trend is for the GOP to become increasingly white, Christian (Evangelical or Catholic), non-Hispanic, and less educated (and eventually, poorer), while the Dems become ever more diverse and cosmopolitan.
This, I think any trend over the next 15-25 years will involve some of the following:
KY, OH, PA, WV becoming even more Republican than they already are.
NC eventually lean D or even safe D, like VA.
AZ, GA, and TX gradually becoming more Dem as their urban areas grow and become more diverse.
MI, OR, WA staying about the same, but with an ever more stark division within each state.
CA becoming even more Dem.
Dem strength will be even more concentrated in cities and wealthier and more diverse suburbs, while the GOP will do best in poorer suburbs and rural areas.
Maybe this:
Dem-327 (per current EV distribution)
GOP-211
FL, TX, GA, and AZ will be swing, not blue states.
