How would Kasich have performed in New England? (user search)
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  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Election What-ifs? (Moderator: Dereich)
  How would Kasich have performed in New England? (search mode)
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Author Topic: How would Kasich have performed in New England?  (Read 837 times)
America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗
TexArkana
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,385
United States


« on: November 17, 2017, 04:17:46 PM »

Would have won Maine and New Hampshire, and taken the following counties (as well as all the counties that Trump won):

Maine:
Waldo
Lincoln
York

New Hampshire:
Merrimack

Vermont:
Orleans
Franklin
Rutland

Connecticut:
Tolland
I think Plymouth, MA would be a toss-up if Kasich had been the nominee. he could've won it.
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America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗
TexArkana
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,385
United States


« Reply #1 on: November 17, 2017, 04:58:45 PM »

Would have won Maine and New Hampshire, and taken the following counties (as well as all the counties that Trump won):

Maine:
Waldo
Lincoln
York

New Hampshire:
Merrimack

Vermont:
Orleans
Franklin
Rutland

Connecticut:
Tolland
I think Plymouth, MA would be a toss-up if Kasich had been the nominee. he could've won it.

Kasich probably would've held on to the rich South Shore towns that went for Romney but rejected Trump by huge margins, and it's likely he'd do better in them as well, which definitely would've been enough to win the 10,000 votes needed to flip it.
I'm thinking that, on average, Kasich would have done about 10% better than Trump in the Northeast, which is enough to flip quite a few counties but only 2 states (Maine and New Hampshire).
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America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗
TexArkana
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,385
United States


« Reply #2 on: November 18, 2017, 12:41:56 PM »

Would have won Maine and New Hampshire, and taken the following counties (as well as all the counties that Trump won):

Maine:
Waldo
Lincoln
York

New Hampshire:
Merrimack

Vermont:
Orleans
Franklin
Rutland

Connecticut:
Tolland
I think Plymouth, MA would be a toss-up if Kasich had been the nominee. he could've won it.

Kasich probably would've held on to the rich South Shore towns that went for Romney but rejected Trump by huge margins, and it's likely he'd do better in them as well, which definitely would've been enough to win the 10,000 votes needed to flip it.
I'm thinking that, on average, Kasich would have done about 10% better than Trump in the Northeast, which is enough to flip quite a few counties but only 2 states (Maine and New Hampshire).

This might be a little generous, but an improvement like that would probably look like this:

You have Kasich doing a bit too well in Massachusetts and Rhode Island, but otherwise this is about what I'd expect from him. 
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