How Possible is this Map for the 2020 Election? (user search)
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  How Possible is this Map for the 2020 Election? (search mode)
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Author Topic: How Possible is this Map for the 2020 Election?  (Read 8581 times)
America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗
TexArkana
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,385
United States


« on: June 22, 2017, 02:27:04 PM »
« edited: June 22, 2017, 02:29:30 PM by TexArkana »



If you're going for a reasonable 7-8% Democratic victory, I would give the Democrat every county where Trump got less than 50% of the vote (save for a couple in Utah where Clinton lost by 20%+ but McMullin kept Trump below 50%) as well as every county that Trump won by less than 8%, PLUS some other counties that are swingy or went for Obama in 2012, but weren't within 7-8% this time around. if you want to be really realistic I think you could flip a few counties that Trump won by 15-20% as well, as I don't believe in uniform swings and I think some counties (such as Davis in Utah) could flip if Trump is still so unpopular in 2020, despite them not being that relatively close in 2016.


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America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗
TexArkana
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,385
United States


« Reply #1 on: June 22, 2017, 05:59:18 PM »

Your latest map seems reasonable to me, but why is the quality still so low? I can't make out most of the map.
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America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗
TexArkana
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,385
United States


« Reply #2 on: June 23, 2017, 12:24:04 PM »

Here is my completed draft of a possible 60-40 landslide map for the Democrats, in 2020. Which states would still go Republican, based on the counties provided here? Which states would be close? Which would not? And is there anything further which should be added or corrected?




To me this map looks like 2008 if Obama had won in an LBJ style landslide (notice how well he does in NY, PA, MN, MI, WI).
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America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗
TexArkana
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,385
United States


« Reply #3 on: June 23, 2017, 02:54:10 PM »

Here is my completed draft of a possible 60-40 landslide map for the Democrats, in 2020. Which states would still go Republican, based on the counties provided here? Which states would be close? Which would not? And is there anything further which should be added or corrected?




To me this map looks like 2008 if Obama had won in an LBJ style landslide (notice how well he does in NY, PA, MN, MI, WI).

I see. What about the questions I posed?


Well, again, the map is too blurry for me to make out parts of it, but it looks like Utah, Idaho,Wyoming, Oklahoma, South and North Dakota, West Virginia, Kentucky, all stay red. also I believe Alabama and Tennessee are extremely close. I'm not sure why you'd use Harkin's 2008 map for Iowa, or Sherrod Brown's 2012 map for Ohio, though, as those were clearly very different from a 2020 Generic D vs. Trump race.
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America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗
TexArkana
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,385
United States


« Reply #4 on: June 23, 2017, 04:47:21 PM »

Here is my completed draft of a possible 60-40 landslide map for the Democrats, in 2020. Which states would still go Republican, based on the counties provided here? Which states would be close? Which would not? And is there anything further which should be added or corrected?


To me this map looks like 2008 if Obama had won in an LBJ style landslide (notice how well he does in NY, PA, MN, MI, WI).

I see. What about the questions I posed?


Well, again, the map is too blurry for me to make out parts of it, but it looks like Utah, Idaho,Wyoming, Oklahoma, South and North Dakota, West Virginia, Kentucky, all stay red. also I believe Alabama and Tennessee are extremely close. I'm not sure why you'd use Harkin's 2008 map for Iowa, or Sherrod Brown's 2012 map for Ohio, though, as those were clearly very different from a 2020 Generic D vs. Trump race.

There is a clearer version of the map here:

And I used their maps because I thought that such a scenario would be relatively reasonable.

I think this is a plausible map for a 60-40 Democratic popular vote win, or about there... if you're using 2008 as a starting point.  
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America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗
TexArkana
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,385
United States


« Reply #5 on: June 24, 2017, 11:47:07 AM »

Here is my completed draft of a possible 60-40 landslide map for the Democrats, in 2020. Which states would still go Republican, based on the counties provided here? Which states would be close? Which would not? And is there anything further which should be added or corrected?



To me this map looks like 2008 if Obama had won in an LBJ style landslide (notice how well he does in NY, PA, MN, MI, WI).

I see. What about the questions I posed?


Well, again, the map is too blurry for me to make out parts of it, but it looks like Utah, Idaho,Wyoming, Oklahoma, South and North Dakota, West Virginia, Kentucky, all stay red. also I believe Alabama and Tennessee are extremely close. I'm not sure why you'd use Harkin's 2008 map for Iowa, or Sherrod Brown's 2012 map for Ohio, though, as those were clearly very different from a 2020 Generic D vs. Trump race.

There is a clearer version of the map here:

And I used their maps because I thought that such a scenario would be relatively reasonable.

I think this is a plausible map for a 60-40 Democratic popular vote win, or about there... if you're using 2008 as a starting point.  

I have a few more technical questions. Would Democrats win the white vote in this scenario? Would they come close? And I am guessing I would correct in saying that Republicans still carry the majority of counties.

Democrats would likely not win the white vote, but it would be closer than it's been since 1996. As for counties, it doesn't look like the Democratic nominee wins a majority, but again they'd come closer than they have since 1996.
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