Alabama Megathread: Bombshell allegations

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

I would be pretty shocked if Doug Jones pulled this off, but I think Moore was by far the most vulnerable Republican of the primary candidates. He only won his last SC race by like 3% which is an utter embarrassment in a state as red as Alabama.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

If Doug Jones can't manage to pull it out against an Extreme-Right pedophile, I give up.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

If the state GOP does decertify Moore and runs a write-in Strange campaign, does Strange win?

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

If the state GOP does decertify Moore and runs a write-in Strange campaign, does Strange win?

Look at who on the forum is calling for a Strange write-in a campaign and make an inference.

I would assume that the split in the right-wing vote would allow Jones to win, but this is still Alabama after all.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

If the state GOP does decertify Moore and runs a write-in Strange campaign, does Strange win?

Look at who on the forum is calling for a Strange write-in a campaign and make an inference.

I would assume that the split in the right-wing vote would allow Jones to win, but this is still Alabama after all.

If the race is 50-40 right now for Moore that could flip it easily if Jones keeps his support

No it can't. That last 10% will be impossible

He's saying that Jones can win with his 40% if Strange runs a write-in campaign. Which is obviously true.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

Awful thought:

Moore steps down.
Sessions resigns as AG to run a write-in campaign for his old seat and wins.
Trump appoints a new AG who's not recused from the Russia probe.

Same result as with strange probably, maybe worse for gop

also whats the dem base level in Alabama?

I would say Jones has a floor of 37-38%, given that he'll win blacks overwhelmingly and likely do better with whites than national Dems do in the state.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

It's very unlikely that Moore will be Alabama's next Senator now. Either he loses to Jones, or he wins and gets expelled from the Senate.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

Anyone want to take a crack on what the county map will look like?

I'll make one later today. I think Jones is going to win by 3-5% now assuming Moore doesn't step down.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

Anyone want to take a crack on what the county map will look like?

I'll make one later today. I think Jones is going to win by 3-5% now assuming Moore doesn't step down.

Are we for certain that the Alabama Republicans aren't deplorable enough to vote against him?

I'm assuming Strange is going to run as a write-in and take 10-15% of the vote, allowing Jones to win.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

One thing that's sad (aside from Moore's alleged acts of child molestation) is that Moore just might hit 60% anyway.

Moore was never going to hit 60%, and he's probably going to lose now.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

Greg Gianforte won in Montana this year the day after he body-slammed a journalist; I don't really have faith that these accusations will sink Moore at all. I hope I'm proven wrong.

There's a big difference between body-slamming a journalist and molesting underage girls, though.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

Sounds like Strange is seriously considering jumping in:

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http://www.al.com/news/index.ssf/2017/11/luther_strange_disturbed_by_ro.html

Luther Strange‏ @lutherstrange
Thank you @SenShelby It's an honor to serve with you.

https://twitter.com/lutherstrange/status/928763593948057602

Strange is pretty bad too, but compared to Moore he'd be a fine Senator.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

Strange has no realistic chance of actually winning as a write-in, but his entry would make Democrats ecstatic.

I think he'd get 10-15% of the vote and hand the race to Jones, which is fine with me.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

DDHQ poll
Moore up 46.4%-46%

https://decisiondeskhq.com/news/opinion-savvyddhq-alsen-poll-roy-moore-46-4-doug-jones-46/

Disappointing, but this at least indicates that these allegations seriously hurt Moore as he was consistently ahead by double digits before.  This race is a tossup now, unless these allegations go away before election day.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

It's pretty funny in retrospect that people on Atlas were arguing Jones could win before this news broke considering the race is now merely tied despite Moore being an exposed pedophile.

In the end, I think if the race stays tied, Jones will win. Remember this is a low turnout special election two weeks before Christmas, so staying home is surely an option for Republicans if Luther Strange doesn't run a write-in campaign.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

DDHQ 1-day poll (Nov 9), 515 LV

Moore 46.4
Jones 46.0
Other 3.8

With Strange:

Jones 43.6
Moore 41.3
Strange 12.3
Other 1.4

These numbers are very promising, hopefully Strange runs.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

Can you really trust the detailed accusations corroborated by 31 people if a guy who took money from a charity disputes them? Partisanship makes it harder to see who is credible.

I didn't see anything about how Moore says he knew two of them and also admits to dating teenagers in the last few pages of the thread. He still hasn't confessed to doing the things they said he did, but it's not like he would do that. Yet the sound bite if "I don't dispute that" can't help him.

Him dating 17-20 year olds is not a crime they both admit nothing happened.
If he was lying wouldn’t he have denied all of it?

Something not being technically illegal does not make it moral or ethical. If someone went up to my 17 year old sister and was 32 asking her on a date, I would grab a shot gun.

At least no one can say you're not a true Texan, then.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

The more I hear about these allegations, the more I believe they are true. Moore needs to step aside.

I applaud you for putting country before party, we need more Republicans like you.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

The more I hear about these allegations, the more I believe they are true. Moore needs to step aside.

I applaud you for putting country before party, we need more Republicans like you.

This. Also, I would encourage you to vote for Jones as a punishment to the Republican party. Tell them to give you a quality candidate.

I don't live in Alabama, but if I did I would've been a Jones supporter from the start. I'll take a moderate good 'ol boy Democrat over a raving theocratic madman any day.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

Fundies will justify anything. Bonus points for the “I have a black friend” routine.

I have to admit, that part of his comment made me laugh.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

I think that Alabama would elect a socially conservative, economically populist Democrat.  Tax those latte-sipping elites in Manhattan and Hollywood to death, redistribute the money back to my family so my kids can get better health care.

There needs to be a Democratic wing that appeals to Southern whites - you can reframe it all.  I would advise all Democratic candidates in the South to really run faith-based campaigns and talk about issues within an evangelical framework.  For example, Creation Care for environmental protection.

It's a very hard sell, but there were Democrats in the olden days in the South that were not completely bought by special interests.  They were more populist and pro-consumer, pro-worker.  They were able to win and hold onto seats but they were traditionalists.  A lot of them were also segregationists.

Sometimes a party needs to give up some things to get a little of what it wants.  An Alabama Democratic senator will have to vote against abortion all of the time and even be very vocal about being pro-life.  There are cultural positions to take- for example, supporting Christian symbols on public property.  I don't see why there should be any fuss about having Biblical passages or the Ten Commandments in a state house or a courthouse.  Just let it go.

Make the fuss when there's a tax bill that's deliberately written for the wealthy.  Very few people in rural Alabama are represented by that bill.  It's a bill that will help Beverly Hills and the Upper East Side, not Alabama.

Assuming Jones wins, I think it's very unlikely he'll be reelected as long as his opponent is a generic Republican and not someone like Moore. Jones is very pro-choice by the way.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

OK, take a look at today's front page of the Florence (AL) Times Daily: http://www.newseum.org/todaysfrontpages/?tfp_display=gallery&tfp_region=USA&tfp_sort_by=state&tfp_id=AL_TD

"Party divided over sex clams"

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

I think the race is Lean D right now, but we'll so where it is on election day.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

^ Yes, really. Even in D waves. For an example of that, see TN SEN '06.

AL.com editorial: Moore is grossly unfit for office

Look at the comments to see the true opinions of Alabama voters:

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Moore is going to win.

This. While Moore will win by a very embarrassing margin for a republican in Alabama, probably in the ballpark of 52-48, he will win, at least according to the data we have right now. I know that North Carolina Yankee is begging for a Jones to win as a means of repowering the establishment, that Dems are begging for a Jones win for obvious reasons, and that Santander is begging for a Jones win probably for trolling purposes. But at the end of the day, we simply don't have the polling data to show a Jones win at. Remember that McCaskill was leading in the polls consistently past-Akin. We have not seen that yet. We may see it eventually. But not yet.

It's also important to remember that this is a low turnout special election 2 weeks before Christmas, so there's a greater chance that the polls end up being off.