Voting rights bills and lawsuits megathread (Updated: April 27th 2020)

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

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This would appear to be purely partisan politics here, since younger voters are more likely to be Democratic voters. 

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

FantasySCOTUS, which has a pretty good track record on predicting SCOTUS cases, predicts that gerrymandering will be ruled unconstitutional by a 5 to 4 decision in Gil vs. Whitford

https://fantasyscotus.lexpredict.com/case/list/

I sure hope this is the case.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

Very intredasting map of all the places Dems could pass AVR via ballot initiative:



It's a shame the Dems are so terrible at strategy that they aren't pouring money into this

Arizona and Michigan are the two states that really stand out at me. It's really something else that after somany years of intense Republican efforts to game election rules to their advantage, that Democrats haven't fought back in ways they know could make an impact. AZ and MI are two places where AVR might be of help.

However, some caveats about some of the other states:

1. Nevada - AVR actually is going to be on the ballot in 2018. It was already approved. Sandoval had a chance to sign it into law before it went to the voters but of course he vetoed it.

2. Ohio - There was an effort to get it on the ballot this year but for some reason it fizzled out (afaik)

3. MT/ME (+WA) - These states already have same-day voter registration, and WA doesn't have SDR but it has mail voting which substantially boosts turnout as it is. AVR is not all that necessary in these states, but fwiw, WA might implement some form of AVR due to Democrats taking back the legislature.

4. North Dakota doesn't have voter registration at all

5. Massachusetts is getting a lot of pressure to implement it, so they might. However, recently the state's voter registration deadline was struck down by a state court and iirc, that ruling was upheld on appeal, so in 2018 it should have de-facto same-day registration. If so, AVR isn't particularly useful here. As an intensely pro-voter access proponent, I'd root for it, but it won't make much difference in the end.

6. ID/WY/UT/SD/MO/OK/AR/MS/NE Don't really even need it. Sure, the left could try to get it on an initiative, but what rewards would they get for their efforts? These states are not competitive, except possibly Missouri (mostly downballot). I will concede that NE-02 is competitive, but who knows what it looks like in 2022 and beyond.

7. Florida - This is a big one for me. All this opportunity in Florida and Democrats have done nothing, meanwhile Republicans raised the initiative vote requirement to 60% over a decade ago and have even eyed trying to raise it further due to their dislike of voters actually getting policy they want. Only now are Democrats trying to eliminate the felony disenfranchisement rules that block almost 1/4 of African American adults from voting! HOWEVER, because of the 60% vote requirement and the expensive nature of fielding a viable initiative, there is a decent amount of risk here. If Republicans mounted a large campaign against it and pro-AVR groups had no resources to fight back, it might not be hard for the FLGOP to poison the electorate with incorrect and misleading information about AVR.


At this point, I'd rather Democrats push redistricting reform in Missouri, Ohio and also to get redistricting commission initiatives in Florida, since Rick Scott is attempting to stack the state Supreme Court by illegally replacing 3 retiring justices minutes after his term ends. Since Scott has been aggressive in appointing partisan judges, I think we all know how the state court will rule on future challenges to GOP maps.

I can see realistic scenarios where AVR could have a tangible impact in some Utah Congressional seats, South Dakota races in general, and Big Time overall in Mississippi.

Mississippi could be much more competitive in Presidential elections with AVR.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

Mississippi could be much more competitive in Presidential elections with AVR.

Not really, no.

if someone who inspires black turnout is on the Democratic ticket, then it's possible.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

Mississippi could be much more competitive in Presidential elections with AVR.

Not really, no.

if someone who inspires black turnout is on the Democratic ticket, then it's possible.

Again, no. You are vastly overestimating the effects of these kinds of services, and maybe also forgetting that automatic registration would also register a ton of white voters who are overwhelmingly Republican in MS. Plus, depending on how comprehensive the AVR bill was, a lot of black voters without drivers licenses wouldn't get registered as well.

Election reform can only go so far. It can't magically erase a double-digit Republican advantage overnight. I'd say maybe at best it could add 0.5% - 1% to the Democratic vote share, if that. If Mississippi is destined to become competitive, it isn't going to happen because of AVR, and it likely won't happen for years yet.

Honestly, you're right. I'm daft sometimes.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

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Freedom move!