“In this poll, either Jones is winning in the poll or people are being dishonest, because they don’t want to admit that they are actually voting for Moore.” How much of role is this playing in polls?
None at all. There was never any shy Trump effect, and there won't be any shy Moore effect. The people who vote for men like that have no shame.
Also, what Treasurer said. Off-year and midterm elections, especially special elections, just can't be predicted by way of conventional wisdom alone. This race is the cosmic fluke to end all cosmic flukes.
