2018 Senate Rankings

[Cactus Jack]

Honest to God I think MT Treasurer has a drinking problem. Unless this was a joke.

It was, but - and I say this will full respect to him in other regards - Treasurer just isn't a funny person.

[Cactus Jack]

In no universe are MO, IN, and ND all Likely R, especially not North Dakota. You do realize that Heitkamp's top opponents are respectively a notorious prick and a rich Some Dude State Senator with the charisma of a cardboard box, right?

[Cactus Jack]

Ratings after ND change:

Safe D (11): VT, MD, DE, CT, RI, MA, NY, WA, HI, CA, MN-Regular
Likely D (6): MI, NM, NJ, ME, VA, MN-Special
Lean D (: MT, WI, PA, FL, NV (D+1), AZ (D+2), OH, ND
Toss-Up (1): WV
Lean R (3): IN (D+1), TN, MO (even)
Likely R (1): MS-Special*
Safe R (5): MS-Regular, NE, TX, WY, UT

* Possible Special Election

what happened in ND?

Cramer and Berg both passed on the race, meaning that the NDGOP is stuck with the less-than-inspiring Tom Campbell as their nominee.

[Cactus Jack]

So I should probably update this map. Due to the Democrats' declining position in the GCB and the fact that I had probably already overestimated many of the Ds here, I have some updates to make.

But first, some good news. Heinrich voted no on the CR, so New Mexico moves back from Very Likely D to Safe D.

As for everything else, I've been too bullish on my boy Sherrod Brown for too long. I don't see him losing because of the national environment (weakened as it is) and because of all the structural advantages he has, but Ohio should still only be Likely D, albeit a strong Likely D. Then there's Wisconsin. All the outside money going into the race is going to be trouble for Tammy Baldwin, making her the most vulnerable of the Obama/Trump Dems. Meanwhile, I have been too bearish on Bob Casey in Pennsylvania because of one poll showing him with negative approvals. So WI and PA are trading places. And that's it. Nothing too big, just some corrections and adjustments to a weaker national environment and the realities of these races.

Safely Democratic: This state will not, in any universe, vote Republican for the Senate under any circumstances.
CA, NY, NM, MA, RI, ME, VT, CT, WA, HI

Very Likely Democratic: It's almost impossible to imagine this state voting Republican for the Senate, but it could conceivably happen in the most perfect of perfect storms.
MD, MN, VA, MN-Special, DE, NJ

Likely Democratic: Odds are that this state will send a Democrat to the Senate, but circumstances make it plausible for the Republican to win instead.
OH, MI, WV, ND, PA

Leans Democratic: The Democrat is undoubtably favored, but the race is very much competitive. Don't be surprised if the Republican wins.
NV, WI, FL, AZ, MT

Tilts Democratic: The Democrat is favored over the Republican, but just barely. Expect this one to be close.
IN

Tossup: I have absolutely no idea which way this state will go.
MO

Tilts Republican: The Republican is favored over the Democrat, but just barely. Expect this one to be close.
Nothing here

Leans Republican: The Republican is undoubtably favored, but the race is very much competitive. Don't be surprised if the Democrat wins.
TN

Likely Republican: Odds are that this state will send a Republican to the Senate, but circumstances make it plausible for the Democrat to win instead.
TX

Very Likely Republican: It's almost impossible to imagine this state voting Democratic for the Senate, but it could conceivably happen in the most perfect of perfect storms.
MS

Safely Republican: This state will not, in any universe, vote Democratic for the Senate under any circumstances.
NE, WY, UT

And here's a visual aid!
(MN-Special will be represented by DC in the visual aid)

Democrats: 50 seats
Republicans: 49 seats
Pure tossup: 1 seat

(btw, if we get a special election in MS, I'll have the Maine districts represent the two special elections)

These 2018 Senate Ratings ratings are ridiculous, how on earth do you believe Nevada and Arizona are leaning Democratic? and how can Democrats be favored in 4 of the 5 double-digit Trump States LOL. As much as my 2018 Senate ratings (which I conveniently put in my Sig so everyone can see them), have been criticized for being “Hackish” and “Trollish”, at least their based largely on how the states voted in the last presidential election combined with the strength of the incumbents, while yours are just based on what you want to happen.

No, your predictions are based upon moon logic and the current astrology in Narnia.

[Cactus Jack]

It's like you don't put any effort into actually thinking

Much as I hate to FTFY Mod Mom, I think this is more accurate.

[Cactus Jack]

King Lear, even Rob Port said the other day that many Republicans from ND have privately admitted that the race is trending away from them. You could make a case for Tossup, but rating it Likely R is ridiculous. Also, Montana isn't Lean R, no serious person in the state believes that.

Haven't you heard? Lear is an all-seeing political genius who knows better about every state than everyone in those states.