Beau Lives: 2019 - 2029

[Edgeofnight]

12:56AM

Wisconsin (73% Reporting) -- Called for Haley
Haley/Sununu -- 51.2%
Warren/Warner -- 46.0%
Stein/Kreml -- 1.2%
Dunn/Petersen -- 1.1%
Other -- .5%

[Edgeofnight]

Part 30: Shattered

1:32AM

Pennsylvania (80% Reporting) -- Called for Haley
Haley/Sununu -- 49.9%
Warren/Warner -- 48.0%
Stein/Kreml -- 1.3%
Dunn/Petersen -- .8%

AP: Warren Calls to concede, Republican Nikki Haley is the President-elect.
Madam President:
November 3rd, 2020

With the call in Pennsylvania, Vice President Elizabeth Warren conceded the Presidential Race to fmr. South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley, who has become the nation's first female President-elect. In her concession speech, Warren said that she was proud that “Across this nation, every little girl, regardless of skin color, will see that they too can be president.”

In her victory speech, Haley congratulated Warren on a hard fought campaign, and spoke to Warren’s own accomplishments throughout her career. She also promised to be a uniting figure among Americans, and pledged to be “a President for all.”

And that's the 2020 Presidential election. I'm not 100% satisfied with how this turned out, as a lot of you noticed their where many sloppy mistakes. It was a good learning experience of how to do this better in 2024 and 2028. Next few updates will cover some housekeeping stuff with regards to the Senate, Governors, etc. We will cover the first major piece of the Biden Administration,then we move into transitional stuff before the Biden Administration ends.

[Edgeofnight]

2020 Summary, pt. 1
Notable Races:

In Alabama, Mayor Tommy Battle held the open seat for Republicans against Democrat Jason Fisher, 69.7% to 28.0%

Result: R Hold

In Arizona, no winner has been declared yet, but incumbent Republican Jeff DeWit leads Democratic challenger Matt Heinz 49.8 to 49.7%

Result: Recount Pending

In Colorado, incumbent Republican Cory Gardner faced a difficult re-election battle, due to low approval ratings. He was defeated for Re-election by fmr. Governor John Hickenlooper, 48.8% to 50.7%

Result: D Gain

In Georgia, incumbent Republican David Perdue faced a tougher than expected re-election battle, challenged by Democratic State Rep Scott Holcomb. Perdue ultimately prevailed, 53.0% to 46.9%.

Result: R Hold

In Iowa, Incumbent Joni Ernst easily won re-election over State Senator Rob Hogg, 58.7% to 40.1%.

Result: R Hold

In Kansas, fmr. Lt. Governor Jeff Colyer won the open seat for the Republicans against Chad Taylor, 59.4% to 40.6%

Result: R Hold

In Kentucky, longtime Republican Incumbent and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell decided to (finally) retire. The Republican primary to replace him was cluttered, but won by Fmr. Governor Matt Bevin. Democrats nominated fmr. State Attorney General Jack Conway. In a rematch of the 2015 Gubernatorial election, Bevin defeated Conway with relative ease.

Result: R Hold

In Maine, incumbent Republican Susan Collins retired. Fmr. State Senator Eric Barkey won the Republican Nomination to replace her. Democrats nominated fmr. State Rep Jared Golden. Currently, neither has been declared the winner. Golden leads 50.0% to  49.9%, pending a recount.

Result: Recount Pending

In Massachusetts, incumbent Democrat Ed Markey retired. The Democrats nominated State Attorney General Maura Healey to replace him. Republicans nominated State Rep. Ron Beaty as their candidate. Healey defeated Beauty with ease, winning 65% of the vote and carrying every county. Beaty has sued claiming voter fraud.

Result: D Hold

In Michigan, incumbent Democrat Gary Peters was unopposed in his renomination. He faced Macomb County Public Works Commissioner Candice Miller in the general election. He defeated Miller with 51% of the vote, even as the Presidential race was more competitive.

Result: D Hold

In Minnesota, incumbent Tina Smith sought a full term in office. After narrowly winning the 2018 special election, Smith was considered a prime target for Republicans. Despite this, Smith defeated Republican challenger Richard Painter with 50% of the vote.

Result: D Hold

In Montana, incumbent Republican Steve Daines ran for re-election to a second term. He was challenged by outgoing Governor Steve Bullock. The race attracted national attention due to Bullock’s popularity, despite of the State’s republican lean at the Presidential level. No winner has been declared yet, but Bullock leads Daines 49.6% to 48.9%.

Result: Recount Pending

In New Hampshire, incumbent Jeanne Shaheen retired. Her Daughter, and City Councilor Stefany Shaheen was the democratic nominee to replace her. Fmr. U.S Senator Scott Brown was the Republican nominee to oppose Shaheen.Shaheen narrowly won, 49.7% to 48.5%. Brown did not pursue a recount.

Result: D Hold.

In North Carolina, incumbent Thom Tillis sought reelection to a second term. He was challenged by state Senator Jeff Jackson. After election night, Jackson leads with 311 votes, with both candidates having 49.5% of the vote. A recount is pending.

Result: Recount Pending

In South Carolina, incumbent Lindsey Graham retired rather than seek another term in office. The Republican nominee to replace him was former state party leader Matt Moore. Democrats nominated Fmr. State Senator Vincent Sheheen as their candidate. Moore won easily, with 57% of the vote.

Result: R Hold

In Virginia, incumbent Mark Warner unsuccessfully ran as the Democrats Vice Presidential candidate. The Democrats nominated Richmond Mayor Levar Stoney as their candidate to replace Warner. Republicans nominated Lt. Governor Jill Vogel as their candidate. Stoney dispatched Vogel easier than expected, winning 52% of the vote.

Result: D Hold

In West Virginia, incumbent Shelley Moore Capito sought a second term in office. Initially, she was considered to be safe in her seat, but democratic challenger Richard Ojeda preformed stronger than expected. Still, in the end Capito won by a substantial margin, taking 54% of the vote.

Result: R Hold

[Edgeofnight]

Flashback: The 2016 Elections

Presidential:

Democratic Pickups in the Senate:
Illinois
Missouri
New Hampshire
North Carolina
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin

[Edgeofnight]

Flashback: 2017 and 2018 Senate Elections



In Massachusetts, the 2017 special election was held in April of 2017 to replace now-vice President Elizabeth Warren. The Democratic primary was a three way contest between Congressman Joe Kennedy, Congressman Seth Moulton, and Congressman Steve Lynch. In the end, Kennedy prevailed easily, taking 55% of the primary vote. On the Republican side, appointed Senator Kirsten LePore did not run for the special election. In the Primary, Fmr. Governor Bill Weld was defeated by State Rep. Geoff Diehl, 49% to 51%. The general election was considered to be solidly democratic. In the end, Kennedy won with 63% of the vote.

Result: D Hold


2018 Key Race Summary:

In Arizona, incumbent Jeff Flake sought re-election to a second term. After narrowly beating Fmr. Sheriff Joe Arpaio and fmr. State Senator Kelli Ward in the Republican primary, Flake was considered extremely vulnerable. After lobbying from the national party, Rep. Kyrsten Sinema entered the race and became the obvious democratic front runner. The race was rated as a toss up, and became one of the most expensive races of the cycle. In the end, Sinema narrowly prevailed over the unpopular incumbent, with 49.1% of the vote.

Result: D Gain

In California, incumbent Dianne Feinstein sought another term in office. Her main challenger emerged as the more liberal Democrat Kevin De-Leon. Due to California’s top two primary system, the two faced each other in the general election. Strapped for cash and struggling with name recognition, Feinstein won over her challenger with 60% of the vote.

Result: D Hold

In Florida, incumbent Bill Nelson decided to retire, rather than seek another term. The Democrats nominated fmr. Rep. Patrick Murphy, their 2016 candidate, for the open seat. After Governor Rick Scott declined to run, Republicans nominated outgoing U.S. rep Tom Rooney. The race was considered a Tossup, although Murphy led most polls pre-election by 1-2%. On election day, Rooney scored an upset for the Republican party, winning with 49% of the vote.

Result: R Gain.

In Indiana, incumbent Joe Donnelly sought a second term in office. He was challenged by fmr. Governor Mike Pence, who was persuaded to enter to prevent a messy GOP primary. The election was considered lean R, although polling had the two evenly match leading up to election day. In the end, Pence defeated the incumbent with 50% of the vote.

Result: R Gain.

In Massachusetts, incumbent Senator Joe Kennedy sought reelection to a second term in office. He was again challenged by Congressman Seth Moulton in the Democratic Primary. Geoff Diehl was against the Republican nominee, beating 6 other minor candidates. Fmr. Governor Bill Weld ran as an independent. Kennedy beat Moulton 65% to 35%, and went on to win the general election with 62% of the vote to Weld’s 29% to Diehl's 9%.

Result: D Hold

In the Minnesota Special election, appointed incumbent Democrat sought re-election to fill the remainder of Al Franken’s term. She was unchallenged in the Democratic Primary. She faced Republican Karin Housley in the general election. The race was considered competitive, but Tina Smith ultimately prevailed with 50% of the vote. 

Result: D Hold

In the Mississippi Special election, appointed incumbent Republican Cindy Hyde-Smith ran for re-election to the remainder of Thad Cochran’s term. She was challenged by fellow Republicans State Senator Chris McDaniel and former Governor Haley Barbour in the jungle primary. She was also challenged by Democrat Mike Espy and Jason Shelton as well. McDaniel and Hyde-Smith made it into the runoff, with Espy taking a narrow third place (33% to 22% to 21%). In the runoff, McDaniel ultimately prevailed, winning 53% of the vote.

Result: R Hold

In Missouri, incumbent Democrat Claire McCaskill decided to retire rather than seek another term in office. Democrats nominated County Executive Mike Sanders to replace her. Republicans nominated Josh Hawley. Despite fundraising concerns, Hawley was considered the heavy favorite, and won in November with 58% of the vote.

Result: R Gain.

In Montana, incumbent Democrat Jon Tester ran for re-election to a third term in office. He was unchallenged by any serious opposition in the Democratic Primary. In the general election, he faced Congressman Ryan Zinke in the general election. The race was considered a tossup, but ultimately, Tester was defeated narrowly by Zinke, with both candidates taking 50% of the vote.

Result: R Gain.

In Nevada, embattled incumbent Republican Dean Heller was convinced by national Republicans to retire. To replace him, Republicans nominated outgoing Governor Brian Sandoval. The Democrats nominated Businessman Stephen Cloobeck as their candidate, after most of their top tier candidates declined to run. Sandoval prevailed easily, taking 57% of the vote.

Result: R Hold

In New Jersey, embattled Incumbent Democrat Bob Menendez sought reelection to a third term. Despite speculation, he was neither forced out nor subject to a major primary challenge. On the Republican side, Republican Tom Kean Jr. emerged from a field of 5 other candidates. The General election was considered a toss up, with the two being relatively even in the polls. In the end, Kean won narrowly, taking 49% of the vote.

Result: R Gain

In North Dakota, incumbent Democrat Heidi Heitkamp sought a second term in office. Her Republican challenger was Congressman Kevin Cramer. The race was considered a tossup, but with a strong Republican wave nationwide, Heitkamp was narrowly defeated, 50% to 49%.

Result: R Gain

In Ohio, incumbent democrat Sherrod Brown sought a third term in office. He was unopposed in the Democratic primary. Republicans initially rallied around Josh Mandel, their 2012 candidate. However, when he withdrew due to family concerns, republicans became locked in a battle between Congressman Jim Renacci and investment banker Michael Gibbons. Renacci prevailed in the end. The race was considered a toss up, but Brown managed to win a third term with 52% of the vote.

Result: D Hold

In Pennsylvania, incumbent Bob Casey Jr. sought a third term in office. The Republican candidate to challenge him was Lou Barletta. The race was considered to have a slight Democratic tilt, as Casey’s approval ratings remained high throughout 2018. Casey prevailed in the end, carrying 51% of the vote.

Result: D Hold

In Tennessee, incumbent Bob Corker sought a third term in office. He face nominal opposition from Democrat James Mackler. Corker was considered safe throughout the race, and on election day, he won with 65% of the vote.

Result: R Hold

In Texas, incumbent Ted Cruz sought re-election to a second term. He faced nominal opposition in the Republican primary, and in the general election, he faced Congressman Beto O’Rouke. The race was considered Likely R leading up to election, and despite a strong performance from O'Rourke, Cruz prevailed, 54% to 44%.

Result: R Hold

 In Utah, incumbent Republican and Senate President Pro Tempore Orrin Hatched retired. To replace him, fmr. Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney was the Republican nominee. Democrats nominated Jenny Wilson, a Salt Lake City Councilor. Romney won overwhelmingly, with 80% of the vote

Result: R Hold

In West Virginia, incumbent Joe Manchin retired. The Democrats struggled to find a candidate to replace him. Booth Goodwin and Jeff Kessler became the leading contenders, however both declined to run. Ultimately, in a field of few candidates, Rick Thompson defeated Paula Jean Swearengin to win the nomination. Republicans faced a messy primary between Congressman Evan Jenkins, State Attorney General Patrick Morrisey, and Coal Tycoon Don Blankenship. With a divided establishment vote between Jenkins and Morrissey, Blankenship was able to eek out a narrow win in the primary, winning with 38% of the vote. The General election was considered a tossup, and Blankenship ultimately won with 52% of the vote.

Result: R Gain.

[Edgeofnight]

Current Political Party Strength

Presidential Election by Margin, 2020

Closest States:

• Michigan -- .3%
• Minnesota -- .4%
• Nevada -- 1.1%
• Pennsylvania -- 1.2%
• Arizona -- 1.6%

Partisan Control of Upper Chamber of State Legislatures

*Oregon is tied, and Nebraska has a unicameral legislature.

Partisan Control of Upper Chamber of State Legislatures:

*Oregon is tied.

Partisan Control of State Governorships:

*A Recount will determine the Winner of the Montana Governor Race.

State Government Trifectas:

Current House Margin:
245 - 190

One more "Flashback" part before we get to the Haley Transition. It will cover Healthcare in the Biden Administration.

[Edgeofnight]

Flashback: Healthcare in the Biden Administration

Taking the oath of office, Biden found himself stuck in the middle on healthcare. Not many were satisfied was satisfied with the current state of the ACA. His running mate, a progressive, personally favored a single payer plan (although she would never have contradicted the President) , as did many progressives nationwide. Conservatives wanted the ACA gutted and burned. Public opinion polls showed a lack of consensus. Pretty much any move by the Biden administration would be met with opposition from a significant portion of the population and of Congress. Still the Democrats in the Senate where able to defeat the Republican house’s three attempts to repeal Obamacare.

A conflict arose in late 2017, when Senator Sanders proposed a Single Payer “Medicare for All” bill. The bill sparked fierce Republican opposition in both chambers, and lacked total support among Democrats. Heidi Heitkamp of North Dakota became a Democratic opponent of the bill. Senator Ross (D-NC) also announced that she would oppose the bill in its current state due to “funding concerns”. With Two democrats against it, the bill was heading for the grave. Tester (D-MT), McCaskill (D-MO), and Manchin (D-WV) found themselves at the senate or the Debate. After much public speculation, Tester announced that he would support it (possibly due to persuasion from Sanders and Majority Leader Schumer. McCaskill was next. Her fellow Senator Kander (D-MO) played a key role in convincing her to support it. When Biden signaled to the general public that he would sign it if it landed on his desk,s he signed on to support it, shortly after Tester. Manchin, with his retirement already planned, found himself one of the most powerful members of the Senate. He shocked the political world when he announced he would support it, as it broke from his traditional moderate record. Democrats had 50 votes, with Warren’s tie breaking powers, Single Payer Healthcare passed the Senate. Of course, the Republican House voted it down, ensuring it would never make the President’s desk. But the optics where clear. Democrats had hoped this would show that they were serious about Healthcare, but instead, it backfired. Republicans used it to justify their “big government is bad” rhetoric. Paul Ryan Appeared on CNN, NBC, FOX, and any news station that would give him 15 minutes to talk about how this is an example of harmful Democratic Deficit spending.

With the Single Payer bill dead on arrival, the Senate went back to the drawing board. A bipartisan health care bill, proposed by Lamar Alexander (R-TN) and Patty Murray (D-WA), was formed. It sought to fix some of the key issues with the ACA. But still, this wasn’t enough, Conservatives in the house held enough votes to deny it a majority. When asked if he would whip votes in support of the bill, Ryan said “that’s not really my job, and it’s not my place to tell my colleagues how to vote.” And so, the Tea Party and Hardliner Conservatives were also able to kill the Bipartisan healthcare bill, especially when Majority Whip Steve Scalise openly came out against it. It failed, even with bipartisan support.

Once the Republicans took the Senate in 2018, it was impossible for the Democrats to get a healthcare plan through. McConnell and Ryan sent an ACA repeal to Biden’s desk three more times, and all three times it was vetoed. The House and Senate overrides failed, and healthcare would be stuck in limbo for another 4 years.

[Edgeofnight]

Part 31: Transition, 2020 (pt. 1)
Barkey Concedes to Golden, Democrats gain Maine Senate Seat.
November 5th, 2020 -- PORTLAND, ME

With the Results unlikely to change, Eric Barkey announced he was conceding the race to Democrat Jared Golden over Twitter. The Thursday Morning announcement formalizes Golden as Maine’s new Senator-elect. The Lewiston Democrat won by a margin of 1,500 votes, and will replace retiring incumbent Susan Collins, a moderate Republican. The result gives the Democrats their second senate gain.

Both sides prepare for legal battle in North Carolina.

November 8th, 2020 -- Raleigh, NC

With ballots still being counted (and recounted), the winner of the North Carolina Senate seat remains unclear. Currently, incumbent Thom Tillis leads by 89 votes against Democratic challenger Jeff Jackson. A lengthy recount process comes next, and with that will spurn numerous legal challenges, regardless of the results.

Heinz Concedes to DeWit, Republicans hold onto the Arizona Senate seat.

November 10th, 2020 -- Phoenix, Arizona.

Its official, incumbent Republican Jeff DeWit will defeat Democratic challenger Matt Heinz. Heinz admitted defeat as provisional, absentee, and military ballots appear to widen the gap between him and DeWit. This officially gives the Republicans 51 Senate seats as races in North Carolina and Montana remain uncalled.

Haley announces first cabinet picks: Senator Corker to be Secretary of State, Governor Baker to be Secretary of Health and Human Services.

November 11th, 2020 -- Washington DC.

In her second press conference as President-elect, Nikki Haley announced her first two cabinet picks: Tennessee Senator Bob Corker for Secretary of State, and Massachusetts Governor Charlie Baker for Secretary of Health and Human Services.

Corker has made a name for himself as a frequent critic of President Biden, especially on foreign policy. He’s been a leading opposition figure on the Iran Deal, continued food aid to North Korea, and has blamed the President for the resurgence of ISIS in early 2019.  However, the two have sometimes found themselves on the same side. When President Biden declaed a “redline” in Syria, and followed up with limited air strikes against the Regime, Corker stated that it “was probably the right move.” Still, his more hawkish stances have drawn criticism. Senator Sanders (I-VT) stated that he plans to vote no on Corker’s nomination. Even from Republicans, Corker isn’t guaranteed a warm welcome. Senator Rand Paul (R-KY) called him “ a Hawk, plain and simple” on national TV. The move to nominate Corker signals to the word that Haley intends to be assertive with the US stance in the world, and indicates the potential for a much bolder foreign policy.

Meanwhile, Governor Baker sends a different signal. A known moderate, and occasional defender of the Affordable Care Act, Governor Baker served 10 years as a healthcare executive. “There just isn’t much bad to say about the guy,” Senator Joe Kennedy (D-MA), who has worked closely with Baker on the opioid epidemic. If confirmed, Baker has said his top priority would be combating the opioid epidemic nationwide, and stated that he would “absolutely oppose” any efforts to “dismantle” the ACA unless he was shown a suitable alternative. Its unclear how the more conservative members of the Senate will react to this appointment.

Democrats square off for control of the House Caucus.

November 15th, 2020 -- Washington DC

With longtime leader Nancy Pelosi calling it quits, Democrats are scrambling to replace her. The four candidates who have emerged have been travelling the country, meeting with voters and fellow Representatives, trying to drum up support. Representative Tim Ryan (D-OH) has touted his ability to reach out to voters across the political spectrum, and stated that he can “refocus the party” after their “brutal losses.” Joaquin Castro (D-TX), Chair of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus, has stated that he’s a leader for a “new Generation” of Democrats. Cedric Richmond (D-LA), chair of the Congressional Black Caucus, has entered the fray in a similar position to Castro. The final candidate, Congressman Ro Khanna (D-CA), has stated that its time to take the party in a bold new direction. “None of the other candidates have done this.” Khanna’s jump as a two term Congressman, recently elected to his third term, has raised eyebrows. Polling Democrats nationwide has led to mixed results. 38% say they have no preference. 22% haven’t heard of any of the candidates in the race. 13% support Ryan, 12% support Richmond, 10% support Castro, and 5% say they support Khanna.

[Edgeofnight]

You never showed the election results for the West Coast, polls closed at 10:00 PM ET

All the West Coast states where "Safe" for Warren or Haley. I didn't feel the need to take up space with it. Its in a spreadsheet, so if there are any states that people want to know the margin in I can post that.
For the West Coast:

California: 59.6% vs 36.4%
Oregon: 51.0% vs 45.4%
Washington: 52.6% vs 44.8%
Hawaii: 64.1% vs 32.6%
Alaska:53.7% vs 44.1%

Kander 2024!!!!!!!!!!!!

He's gotta win re-election first....

What happened in Montana?

Close margins for both the Governor and Senate races prompted a recount, the result of which you'll find out below.

Part 32: Transition, 2020 (pt.2)

Baker meets conservative opposition in the Senate.

November 18th, 2020 -- Boston, MA

In a joint interview on CNN, Governor and Secretary-designate Charlie Baker spared with Republican Senator Tom Cotton over the role of Planned Parenthood and the Affordable Care Act. The two traded blows back and forth for over an hour, reaching little agreement on anything. In the end, Cotton pledged to oppose Baker, to which the Governor responded with “that is your right as a Senator.”

Cotton isn’t the only one. Senator Rand Paul (R-KY) and Senator Jeff DeWit (R-AZ) Released a joint statement “expressing concern” over Baker’s support of Planned Parenthood. Sources inside DC tell that “at least 10 Republicans plan to vote against Baker.”

But all is not over for Baker. Senator Joe Kennedy (D-MA) and Senator-elect Maura Healey (D-MA) both stated that the would vote for Baker, issuing their own joint statement where they explained that “Baker is the right person to head up the fight against the Opioid Epidemic.”  Other Democrats, such as Jason Kander (D-MO) have also signaled support for Baker. With support from most Republicans and most Democrats, Baker would have an easy time passing the Senate. Still, it is likely that many more Republicans will have hesitations about the Massachusetts Governor.

Republicans Select Cornyn to lead them in the Senate.

November 20th, 2020 -- Dallas, TX

Texas’ Senior Senator John Cornyn has won the leadership race to be the next Senate Majority Leader. Incumbent Whip, John Thune, will stay on as the Majority whip at Cornyn’s urging. Cornyn’s primary opponent in the leadership contest, Wyoming Senator John Barrasso, conceded defeat, promising to work with the new majority leader to unite the caucus. Cornyn will take office in January of 2021.

Haley expands cabinet picks

November 26th, 2020 -- Washington DC

Over the past few days, President Elect Haley has announced several additional cabinet positions.

First for her Chief of Staff, she will appoint Catherine Templeton, who ran her early primary campaign and served as one of her deputy campaign managers. Her Campaign manager and former chairman of Citizens United David Bossie will serve as a Counselor and Special Advisor to the President. For her Communications Director, she will appoint head of RNC Communications Ryan Mahoney.

For heads of federal departments, Haley has announced four new nominees. To head up the justice department, former Congressman Trey Gowdy will be appointed to serve as Attorney General. The former assistant US Attorney, former South Carolina Solicitor, and former head of the House Oversight Committee has promised to make Government corruption among his chief priorities leading the Justice Department.

To lead the Defense Department, outgoing Congresswoman Martha McSally, who made a play at McCain’s seat before being defeated in the Primary by incumbent Senator DeWit. The Arizona Congresswoman was a Colonel in the United States Air Force before joining Congress, and gained national notoriety when she became the first female fighter pilot in the US Military, and she became the first female Commander of a USAF fighter squadron. 

For the Housing Department, County Executive Rob Astorino of New York will head up that federal agency. For the Interior Department, former Oklahoma Governor Mary Fallin will take the reigns as Halley's pick.

Kander, Harris lead early 2024 Primary polling.

November 28th, 2020 -- San Francisco, CA

Although Haley hasn’t taken her oath of office yet, Democrats are already preparing to take her on in 2024. A new poll from Public Policy Polling shows  a divided field. 12 Democrats were included in the poll, at the top where two familiar faces. California Senator Kamala Harris, who was the runner up to Vice President Warren in the 2020 primary, leads the field with 12% of the vote. Right behind her is the third place 2020 Candidate, Missouri Senator Jason Kander, who carries 10% of the vote. Beyond those top two, no candidate has double digit support. Full Results below:

• Sen. Kamala Harris -- 12%
• Sen. Jason Kander -- 10%
• Sen. Joe Kennedy -- 7%
• Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand -- 6%
• Sen. Cory Booker -- 5%
• Gov. Andrew Cuomo -- 3%
• Rep Tulsi Gabbard -- 3%
• Gov. Allison L. Grimes  -- 3%
• Gov. Dan Biss -- 2%
• Mayor Bill De Blasio -- 2%
• Sen. Kyrsten Sinema -- 2%
• Gov. Gretchen Whitmer -- 2%
• Undecided/Others -- 42%

Other November 2020 Headlines:

November 8th: Nina Turner declares candidacy for DNC Chair.
November 10th: Bullock, McLean officially declared winners after second recount. Daines concedes, Gianforte refuses, plans “next step.”
November 11th: Gianforte Conceedes over Twitter, McLean proclaims herself Governor-elect.
November 15th: Virginia State Attorney General Mark Herring set to announce Gubernatorial run next week.
November 21st: Tom Perez vows to win re-election as Cecile Richards becomes third democrat to declare bid for party chair.
November 23rd: Barack Obama: “We’re all rooting for Nikki Haley”
November 26th: Congressman Duncan Hunter (R-CA) calls for investigation into Elizabeth Warren over potential FEC violations.

[Edgeofnight]

Part 33: Transition, 2020 (pt. 3)

Joaquin Castro wins leadership vote on third ballot.

December 2nd, 2020 -- San Antonio, TX

San Antonio Democrat Joaquin Castro has won the race to lead the Democratic Caucus in the wake of Nancy Pelosi’s retirement. In his first public address as Leader-elect, Castro promised to be a uniting figure in the party, which has faced some internal strife in the wake of the 2020 primaries.

Castro beat out three other Democrats. California Congressman Ro Khanna, Ohio Congressman Tim Ryan, and Louisiana Congressman Cedric Richmond.

Democratic House Leader, First Ballot:

Tim Ryan -- 71
Joaquin Castro -- 53
Cedric Richmond -- 48
Ro Khanna -- 18 (eliminated)

Democratic House Leader, Second Ballot:

Tim Ryan -- 80
Joaquin Castro -- 56
Cedric Richmond -- 54 (eliminated)

Democratic House Leader, Third Ballot

Joaquin Castro -- 101
Tim Ryan -- 89

Joaquin Castro will be formally sworn in as House Leader January 3rd, 2021.

Court orders end to North Carolina Recounts as Tillis Leads with 186 votes. Jackson concedes.

December 10th, 2020 -- Raleigh, NC.

Thom Tillis has won re-election by the narrowest margin in North Carolina History.  AFter the state’s highest Court declared an end to the recount effort, Thom Tillis (Rep.) leads with less than 200 votes. Jackson, who’s only options where to concede or appeal to the United States Supreme Court, announced that he will not appeal further, and will end the legal battle. He gave a formal concession speech, in which he thanked his supporters, and explained his reasoning for conceding. He didn’t, however, once mention Senator Tillis by name. Jackson insisted that this would not be the end of his political career.


Haley’s latest announcement run into trouble.

December 15th, 2020 -- Washington DC.

Haley kicked off the day yesterday with another slew of Announcements. One of them, however, has ran into some problems in the Senate. Former Congressman Evan Jenkins of West Virginia has been announced as Haley’s pick to lead the energy department. Democrats reacted swiftly to the news. “I’m not sure he’s the best person to create our energy policy,” said Senator Jason Kander (D-MO) in an interview with CNN. Similar sentiments have been echoed by Senators Kamala Harris (D-CA) and Tim Kaine (D-VA). But Jenkins nomination has been complicated by Senator Don Blankenship (R-WV). In an interview with Fox, Blankenship said he was undecided, but also added that he was leaning towards voting against Jenkins because “I just don’t like the guy.” Senator Tom Kean (R-NJ) has also announced his intention to vote against Jenkins, stating Jenkins stance on coal and climate change should disqualify him.


Other December Headlines:

December 6th: State Delegate Danica Roem declares bid for Virginia Lieutenant Governor.
December 7th: Outgoing Secretary Jack Markell declares bid for DNC chair, fourth Democrat to enter the race.
December 8th: Corey Stewart declares Gubernatorial bid in Virginia.
December 8th: Phil Murphy declares re-election bid, leads Republican challengers.
December 12th: Fmr. Lt. Governor Ralph Northam Declares Gubernatorial bid in Virginia, trails Herring.
December 13th: Jon Huntsman will not continue as UN Ambassador, Haley to appoint Joe Heck as replacement.
December 12th: Deputy Chair Ellison will not challenge Tom Perez
December 13th: Attorney Justin Fairfax declares Attorney General Bid in Virginia.
December 14th: Haley announces Rosario Marin as her appointment to Treasury Secretary, Meg Whitman to be Commerce Secretary, Pam Bondi to be Labor Secretary, and Evan Jenkins to be Energy Secretary.
December 15th: Anthony Kennedy floats retirement publically
December 16th: Jason Rae declares bid for DNC chair.
December: 18th: Tom Perillo declares Virginia Gubernatorial bid.
December 20th: Matt Heinz: “I’ll Probably run again.

”

[Edgeofnight]

New Update should be out within the next few days, until then, here is a little fluff piece with some polling:

Morning Consultant's The 10 Most Popular Governor's in America, January 2021.

1. Kay Ivey (R-AL): 67% Approve, 23% Disapprove
2. Larry Hogan (R-MD): 65% Approve, 25% Disapprove
3. Phil Scott (R-VT): 63% Approve, 20% Disapprove
4. Beau Biden (D-DE): 63% Approve, 22% Disapprove
5. Asa Hutchinson (R-AR): 61% Approve, 24% Disapprove
6. Charlie Baker (R-MA): 60% Approve, 24% Disapprove
7. Erin Stewart (R-CT): 60% Approve, 25% Disapprove
8. Dan Biss (D-IL): 58% Approve, 27% Disapprove
9. Gretchen Whitmer (D-MI): 56% Approve, 27% Disapprove
10. Greg Abbott (R-TX): 55% Approve, 31% Disapprove

[Edgeofnight]

Part 34: Madam President

Nikki Haley Takes the Oath of Office, lays out ambitious agenda.

January 20th, 2021 -- Washington DC

Having made history with her election, Haley seeks to make her presidency a transformative one. In her inaugural address, she laid out three key goals for her first 100 days in Office. First, she promised a comprehensive infrastructure package to put America back to work and fix America’s dilapidated infrastructure. Second, she set out to solve the opioid crisis by increasing police and DEA funding to crack down on drug suppliers. Third, she promised to restore America’s standing abroad by cracking down on Iran, Syria, and eliminating ISIS. She also spoke about the historic nature of the 2020 election, and promised to carry on that historic change to become a transformative President.

Haley Approval Rating:

Approve: 62%
Disapprove: 24%

Other January 2021 Headlines:

January 4th: Corker and Paul spar in committee hearing.
January 5th: Rhee announced as pick for Secretary of Education
January 9th: Kelly Thomasson declares bid for Lt. Governor in Virginia
January 10th: Biden Farewell Address: “No Regrets”  as President prepares to leave office with 50% approval ratings.  
January 17th: Jack Ciattarelli formally declares bid for New Jersey Governor
January 18th: Former Governor Terry Mcauliffe declares bid for Virginia Governor, shakes up race.
January 28th: Jill Vogel declares Gubernatorial bid, Stewart leads primary.
January 28th: Vogel declares Gubernatorial bid, endorses Frank Wagner for Lt. Governor.

The Haley Administration:

Vice President: Chris Sununu
Chief of Staff: Catherine Templeton
Counselor to the President: David Bossie
Secretary of State: Bob Corker (96-2)
Secretary of the Treasury: Rosario Marin (59-39)
Secretary of Defense: Martha McSally (91-8)
Attorney General: Trey Gowdy (84-14)
Secretary of the Interior: Mary Fallin (56 - 43)
Secretary of Commerce: Meg Whitman (68-31)
Secretary of Labor: Pam Bondi (55 - 44)
Secretary of Health and Human Services: Charlie Baker (87-12)
Secretary of Housing and Urban Development: Rob Astorino (76-23)
Secretary of Transportation: Kevin Faulconer (90-9)
Secretary of Energy: Evan Jenkins (51-50)
Secretary of Education: Michelle Rhee (55-44)
Secretary of Veterans’ Affairs: Scott Brown (78-21)
Secretary of Homeland Security: Mike McCaul (90-9)
EPA Administrator: Tim Fox (57-42)
UN Ambassador: Joe Heck (64-35)

[Edgeofnight]

Finals+Work+Life has been burying me. Expect an update within the next week, but don't know exactly when.

[Edgeofnight]

This isn't the update I was talking about, but here is a list of all the current U.S. Senators. They are listed with the Senior Senator first, followed by the junior senator.

52R-48D

Alabama:

• Richard Shelby
• Luther Strange

Alaska:

• Lisa Murkowski
• Dan Sullivan

Arizona:

• Kyrsten Sinema
• Jeff DeWitt

Arkansas:

• John Boozman
• Tom Cotton

California:

• Dianne Feinstein
• Kamala Harris

Colorado:

• Michael Bennet
• John Hickenlooper

Connecticut:

• Richard Blumenthal
• Chris Murphy

Delaware:

• Tom Carper
• Chris Coons

Florida:

• Marco Rubio
• Tom Rooney

Georgia:

• Johnny Isakson
• David Perdue

Hawaii:

• Brian Schatz
• Mazie Hirono

Idaho:

• Mike Crapo
• Jim Risch

Illinois:

• Tammy Duckworth
• Napoleon Harris

Indiana:

• Todd Young
• Mike Pence

Iowa:

• Chuck Grassley
• Joni Ernst

Kansas:

• Jerry Moran
• Jeff Coyler

Kentucky:

• Rand Paul
• Matt Bevin

Louisiana:

• Richard Cassidy
• John N Kennedy

Maine:

• Angus King
• Jared Golden

Maryland:

• Ben Cardin
• Chris Van Hollen

Massachusetts:

• Joe Kennedy
• Maura Healey

Michigan:

• Debbie Stabbenow
• Gary Peters

Minnesota:

• Amy Klobuchar
• Tina Smith

Mississippi

• Roger Wicker
• Chris McDaniel

Missouri:

• Jason Kander
• Josh Hawley

Montana:

• Ryan Zinke
• Steve Bullock

Nebraska:

• Deb Fischer
• Ben Sasse

Nevada:

• Catherine Cortez Masto
• Brian Sandoval

New Hampshire:

• Maggie Hassan
• Stefany Shaheen

New Jersey:

• Cory Booker
• Tom Kean Jr.

New Mexico:

• Tom Udall
• Martin Heinrich

New York:

• Chuck Schumer
• Kirsten Gillibrand

North Carolina:

• Thom Tillis
• Deborah Ross

North Dakota:

• John Hoeven
• Kevin Cramer

Ohio:

• Sherrod Brown
• Rob Portman

Oklahoma:

• James Lankford
• J.C. Watts

Oregon:

• Ron Wyden
• Jeff Merkley

Pennsylvania:

• Bob Casey Jr.
• Kate McGinty

Rhode Island:

• Jack Reed
• Sheldon Whitehouse

South Carolina

• Tim Scott
• Matt Moore

South Dakota:

• John Thune
• Mike Rounds

Tennessee

• Marsha Blackburn
• Steve Fincher

Texas

• John Cornyn
• Ted Cruz

Utah:

• Mike Lee
• Mitt Romney

Vermont:

• Patrick Leahy
• Bernie Sanders

Virginia:

• Tim Kaine
• Levar Stoney

Washington:

• Patty Murray
• Maria Cantwell

West Virginia:

• Shelly Moore Capito
• Don Blankenship

Wisconsin:

• Russ Feingold
• Rebecca Kleefisch

Wyoming

• Mike Enzi
• John Barrasso

[Edgeofnight]

Part 35: First 100 Days

Republicans tackle infrastructure.

February 8th, 2021

The first item on Haley’s agenda is passing a massive infrastructure package. Haley’s package, totaling 500 Billion USD in total, would seek to match City and State funding for various infrastructure projects, hoping to give struggling communities a better chance at revitalizing themselves. This is just one component of the infrastructure package, but is the main piece. It also includes 25 Billion allocated to grants to local communities with the specific purpose of modernizing power grids. The bill has obtained bipartisan support, but has also attracted criticism from Deficit Hawks. Senators Rand Paul (R-KY), John Kennedy (R-LA), Marsha Blackburn (R-TN) and Steve Fincher (R-TN) have all come out against the bill. A significant number of liberals have also come out against the bill. Senator and former Presidential Candidate Kamala Harris (D-CA) said that the bill “practically guarantees cuts to medicare and medicaid.”  Senator Jason Kander (D-MO) voiced similar concerns, but spoke positive on several aspects of the bill, being sure to add “I won’t vote for it until we see some idea of where this money is coming from.”  DC insiders say the bill is likely to pass the house easily, but caution that the bipartisan group of senators may be able to stall the bill.

Democrats look forward.

February 23rd, 2023

After 5 ballots, Democrats have found their new Party chair. Secretary Jack Markell of Delaware defeated Jason Rae on the final ballot after incumbent Tom Perez withdrew on the third ballot. Markell has pledged to focus primarily on reuniting the party, and has promised to “rebuild” the party from the ground up. Markell’s victory has been met with a large, collective “meh” from most Democrats.He is the least controversial and least exciting candidate for the chairmanship, and his victory represents a desire to play it safe among national democrats.

Other Headlines:

February 7th: Jason Kander “not interested” in running for president, will seek second term in the senate.
March 8th: Haley dodges the immigration issue as reform bill misses cloture. 
March 9th: Rubio: “We have the votes to pass the Dream Act.”
March 10th: Cruz: Dream Act has “near zero” chance of passing.
March 11th: Speaker Ryan won’t put DREAM Act to a vote, citing Hastert Rule.
March 11th: Majority Leader Cornyn wont abolish filibuster to pass DREAM act.
March 23rd: Haley announces “renegotiation” of NAFTA, other free trade agreements. Commerce department and Haley Administration will consider withdrawing from TPP.
April 3rd: Virginia Primary polling: Mcauliffe 23%, Herring 16%. Thomasson leads Roem with 32% of the vote. Vogel trails Stewart 40% to 49%.
April 5th: Kamala Harris is not thinking about running for president, focused on senate duties.

[Edgeofnight]

Part 36: Spring - Summer 2021

Middle East Plan: Bomb Everything

May 29th, 2021

President Haley’s foreign policy can be boiled down to two words: Bomb’s Away. Led by Secretaries Corker and McSally, Haley has taken an aggressive foreign policy stance in the Middle East. To combat ISIS, Secretary Corker purposed amping up airstrikes as an alternative to boots on the ground. Still, the Haley administration has left the possibility to increasing ground forces from 3,000 to 6,000 if the Air Campaign should fail.

The increases in bombings has drawn the ire of Human Rights groups the world over. Senator Russ Feingold (D-WI) has cautioned that more bombings might worsen the situation.  Even some Republicans aren’t fully on board. Rand Paul (R-KY) has found himself a frequent critic of Corker and Haley, and said the decision to increase Air Strikes is a “hasty move that opens American’s up to danger”. Secretary Corker responded to these concerns in a press briefing, stating that he is working closely with the Department of Defense and other federal agencies to ensure that the strikes are conducted in the safest, most strategic manner possible to minimize civilian casualties.

Virginia Gubernatorial election favors Democrats after primaries.

June 15, 2021.

After the Tuesday primary, Democrats have emerged the stronger party in the upcoming Virginia Gubernatorial election. Fmr. State Attorney General Mark Herring has won the Democratic nomination with 42% of the vote, while the Democratic Primary for the State’s second position was won by State Delegate Danica Roem, who prevailed narrowly with 50.2% of the vote. Attorney Justin Fairfax was unopposed for the Democratic nomination for Attorney General.

On the Republican side, Corey Stewart, a Prince William County Supervisor defeated Lt. Governor Jill Vogel, 56% to 43%. The primary was messy, and characterized as an Establishment vs Anti-Establishment battle by national media. Stewart’s crushing win is the result of an increasingly conservative Statewide Republican party, as Stewart constantly accused his opponent as being “too soft” on Democrats and regularly challenged her conservative credentials. Stewarts win can also be attributed to strong support from former Trump allies such as his 2020 campaign manager Steve Bannon. For the Lieutenant Governor and Attorney General positions, Frank Wagner and John Adams where both uncontested for their respective primaries.

Polling for the general election shows Herring with a consistent lead statewide of anywhere between 49 and 56%, and an aggregate result of 51%. Stewart claims many of the polls have been rigged against him to discourage his supporters from donating, but evidence doesn’t support this claim. No other candidates have entered the general election.

Full results from the primaries below:

(Maps will be added when tiny pic stops being down.)

County Supervisor Corey Stewart -- 55.7%
Lt. Governor Jill Vogel -- 44.3%

(Maps will be added when tiny pic stops being down.)

Fmr. Attorney General Mark Herring -- 41.8%
Fmr. Governor Terry Mcauliffe -- 30.2%
Fmr. Congressman Tom Perriello -- 14.9%
Fmr. Lt. Governor Ralph Northam -- 13.1%


NYC Democratic Primary Results:
Borough President Ruben Diaz Jr. defeated Public Advocate Letitia James and City Comptroller Scott Stringer in the mayoral primary 47% to 32% to 21%.
Fmr. State Senator Dan Squadron won the nomination for Public Advocate unopposed.
City Councilman Ritchie Torres defeated fellow Councilman Andrew Cohen 55% to 44% for the nomination for City Comptroller.

NYC Republican Primary Results:
Lawyer Michael O'Reilly won the nomination over perennial candidate Rocky de La Fuente with 59% of the vote.
Juan Carlos Polanco won the Public Advocate nomination unopposed.
Michel J. Faulkner won the nomination for Comptroller unopposed.

Haley: “Opioid Addiction is the most serious public health crisis since AIDs.” Sununu to chair bipartisan Opioid Committee.

July 19th, 2021

In a press conference today, President Nikki Haley personally stated that her administration will step up the fight against the Opioid epidemic with the creation of a Bipartisan Committee to craft a formal policy to fight against the epidemic. Led by Vice President Sununu, the Committee will consist of 13 total members, 8 Republicans and 5 Democrats, that will interview Law Enforcement and Medical professionals, as well as Municipal and City-level politicians before drafting a formal policy recommendation to give to the president. The creation of the committee represents an effort of the Haley administration to reach out to Democrats on one of the nation’s most pressing issues.

13 Members in total:
Chairman: Vice President Chris Sununu (Rep.)
Secretary of Health and Human Services Charlie Baker (Rep.)
Attorney General Trey Gowdy (Rep.)
Chief of Staff Catherine Templeton (Rep.)
Florida Governor Adam Putnam (Rep.)
Pennsylvania Governor Scott Wagner (Rep.)
Ohio Governor Mike DeWine (Rep.)
Nevada Governor Adam Laxalt (Rep.)
Washington Governor Jay Inslee (Dem.)
New Jersey Governor Phil Murphy (Dem.)
Louisiana Governor John Bel Edwards (Dem.)
Kentucky Governor Allison Grimes (Dem.)
Missouri Governor Nicole Galloway (Dem.)


Haley Approval Ratings (August 2021)
Approve: 53%
Disapprove: 40%
Unsure: 7%

Phil Murphy Approval Ratings (August 2021)
Approve: 44%
Disapprove: 46%
Unsure: 10%

Ed Gillespie (Retiring) Approval Rating (August 2021)
Approve: 43%
Disapprove: 45%
Unsure: 12%

Bill De Blasio Approval Rating (August 2021)
Approve: 50%
Disapprove: 44%
Unsure: 6%

New Jersey Gubernatorial Polling:
Phil Murphy: 46%
Jack Ciattarelli: 42%
Other: 2%
Unsure: 10%

Virginia Gubernatorial Polling:
Mark Herring -- 52%
Cory Stewart -- 42%
Other -- 6%

NYC Mayoral Race Polling:
Diaz (Dem/Working Families Alliance) --  55%
O'Reilly (Republican/Conservative/Reform Alliance) -- 33%
Other -- 4%

Texas 10th Congressional District Special Election Polling (September):
Stacy Hock -- 50%
Mike Sigiel -- 44%

House Generic Ballot:
Republican -- 44%
Democratic -- 43%
Undecided/Other -- 13%

Other Headlines:

May 13th: Kentucky Attorney General Andy Beshear is running for the Senate.
May 20th: Justice Anthony Kennedy considering retirement, will make decision by the end of the year.
June 10th: Erin Stewart most popular Governor in the Country, survey finds.
June 12th: Chris Christie: Phil Murphy is the worst Governor in New Jersey History.
June 13th: New Jersey Government is in budget crisis, Senator Kean says.
June 15th: Haley “wants tax cuts on the floor” before July Recess.
June 20th: Republicans debate massive Tax cut as deficit hawks push back.
June 20th: In blow to Haley administration, tax cut bill won’t be voted on before recess.
June 22nd: Fmr. Rep Gwen Graham announces bid for Florida Governor, leads likely opponents.
June 25th: Rubio considers retirement in the face of a difficult re-election campaign.
June 28th: Jason Carter declares 2022 Senate bid.
July 12th: Tax Bill passes House with narrow majority support. Expected to pass Senate.
July 15th: Victory for Haley as Tax bill passes senate 51-49. Rand Paul joins democrats in voting against the bill.
July 22nd: Johnny Isakson is done, will retire in 2022. Nick Ayers “strongly considering” run to replace him.
August 2nd: Nick Ayers is in as Republicans clear the field in Georgia.
August 3rd: NRSC chairman Tom Cotton says “Rand can go f**k himself,” in leaked audio.
August 5th: Rand Paul: “I’ll win without his help,” as spat with Cotton and Republican leaders continues.
August 8th: Georiga Polling: Ayers leads by 6 against Carter, neither has majority support.
August 12th: Andrew Gillum enters Senate race to face Rubio.
August 20th: David Jolly announces independent bid for Florida Senate.

[Edgeofnight]

This is a bit of a Fluff piece. I couldn't find a spot to put it on the timeline that I liked, so its going here as it's own separate thing. Putting this up now because I lost the county map for VA gov 2021.

24 for 2024

The 2024 election may be three years out, but its already become on of the biggest topics of speculation among pundits across the nation. As Democrats gear up for the 2022 midterms, behind the scene, the 2024 players are already gaming their chances, forming their teams, and working to build up their name recognition. Below, we have compiled and rated a list of 24 potential democratic candidates.

Before we begin, here are a few honorable mentions of people who didn’t make the cut: Ohio Congressman Tim Ryan, Massachusetts Senator Maura Healey, Nevada Senator Catherine Cortez Masto, Arizona Senator Kirsten Sinema, and Louisiana Governor John Bel Edwards. With that out of the way, let’s go on to our list!

24. Levar Stoney

The junior Senator from Virginia and former Mayor of Richmond has maintained a relatively low profile since joining the senate earlier this year. However, his initial election made national waves as he became the second African American to win statewide office in Virginia, and joined the ranks as one of the four currently serving African Americans in the senate. In his political career, he has been an ally of the Democratic establishment. He was personally recruited for the Senate race by Chuck Schumer, and proved to be one of the stronger democratic fundraisers last year.  Still, in such a wide open field, the young senator has done little to stand out, and currently doesn’t seem to be preparing to run.

23. Joaquin Castro

The recently minted House Minority Leader had big shoes to fill going into his new job, and thus far has been filling them well. Often overshadowed by his twin brother, Joaquin Castro’s new position has given him new found national attention, which naturally brings with it speculation about his political future. In recent months, Castro has been something of a unifier among Democrats, something his predecessor and many other democrats have been lacking in recent years. However, his brother seems much more keen on running, and its very unlikely that they would run against each other, meaning one of their ambitions will have to yield to the other.

22. Stefany Shaheen

Another freshman Senator, Shaheen comes off the heels of a hard fought victory against the political tides of the state. The only Democrat to win Statewide in New Hampshire last year, Shaheen has handled the national spotlight with grace. Since entering the Senate, she has frequently aligned herself with the Sanders-Feingold wing of the party, a contrast from her mother, who was also her predecessor in the Senate. But the memory of Maggie Hassan’s mess of a presidential campaign may still deter her from running herself, and right now Shaheen seems content to stay where she is, although there is still plenty of time for that to change.

21. Bill de Blasio

Speaking of messy campaigns, we come to the outgoing Mayor of New York City Bill De Blasio. While de Blasio has won each of his Citywide elections with ease, his presidential campaign never really took off the ground. Some of that, maybe even most of that, has to do with the candidate himself, but a large chunk has to do with the way his campaign itself. Still, de Blasio has been firm in his stance that he isn’t considering another presidential bid, he may change his tune once he is formally out of office.

20. Seth Moulton

The former Massachusetts Congressman has made plenty of enemies in his political career. One of the more vocally anti-establishment Democrats since leaving office in 2019, Moulton has made it part of his brand to be an outsider candidate. Although this brash attitude endears him with his supporters, it has hurt him among his fellow democrats. Since withdrawing from the 2020 presidential election, Moulton has traveled the country recruiting veterans to run for local political offices, in what some see as a move to build up a network of supporters. Still, Moulton’s position on this list is not related to his shot at winning the nomination, but it more based on the fact that he is likely going to run.

19. Steve Bullock

The Governor-turned-Senator of Montana, Steve Bullock has a potential that most Democrats on this list lack, in that he has won elected office in a red state multiple times. Bullock hasn’t been afraid to take liberal stances on various issues. He is a strong defender of the ACA, he is a proponent of Net Neutrality, and he has led the charge on defending the EPA from Republican cuts. Still, there are a few issues that hold him back. First, he lacks the national profile that others on this list have. Second, he isn’t always in line with the Democratic base, especially on guns (although his stances have changed since he has joined the Senate). Third, Montana makes for a poor fundraising base to start a presidential campaign on. But his personal brand represents something new and interesting for the Democrats, especially when compared with Elizabeth Warren.

TIE: 18 and 17. Sherrod Brown and Russ Feingold

These two are tied because their strengths and weaknesses are basically the same. Both sitting US senators have had lengthy political careers, marked with wins (and loses) in competitive elections. This serves as both a strength and weakness. 2020 showed that on both sides, voters have a desire for fresh faces. Jason Kander and Kamala Harris’ respective campaigns showed that this desire is especially prevalent on the Democratic side. Brown and Feingold are both anything but new faces. Neither, especially Brown, seem likely to run, as Brown faces either re-election or retirement in 2024 and Feingold is expected to face a competitive re-election battle. But on the other side of the coin, Brown and especially Feingold have become leaders of the Democratic party post-Biden. Either one of them could be fearsome candidates, should they choose to run.

16. John Hickenlooper

Hickenlooper can be said to be in a similar situation to Steve Bullock. A popular Governor-turned-Senator, Hickenlooper had several missteps in the 2020 campaign that, when combined with the competitive field, ultimately doomed him. While his position is mostly the same as Bullock, the one thing that places him above Bullock is his ambition. Hickenlooper has shown interest in the office, and has been making the usually candidate moves including the expected trips to Iowa and New Hampshire. He could potentially be a strong candidate if he learns from his mistakes in 2020, but he lacks the wow factor that other candidates higher on this list have.

15. Joe Kennedy

It was obvious that he would be on this list. The proverbial “Crown Prince” of the Democratic party, Kennedy comes from an obvious and well known political pedigree. His grand uncles and grandfather are well known liberal icons, and Kennedy has been known in the national scene since his victory to replace Elizabeth Warren in the senate. He has a strong personal charisma that can’t be understated, and is well connected within the party. Pair this with a (mostly) progressive voting record and you have strong candidate. His detractors have often referred to him as fake, an empty suit, and  “the Democratic Marco Rubio”. He has missed more votes than a majority of Senators, especially a majority of fellow Democrats. Still, the prospect of another Kennedy in the White House has many excited.

14. Dan Biss

The miracle worker from Illinois, he won in back to back upsets to become Governor.  First, defeating two self funding millionaires in the primary, and then another self funding Billionaire incumbent in the general, Biss was able to buck national trends to become one of the few Democratic gains in 2018’s gubernatorial elections. Since taking office, he has governed as a progressive democrat, and has maintained high approval ratings throughout his time in office. But Biss lacks a real national profile. He is not popular enough to make national headlines, nor is he marred in controversy. Few people outside of his home state know who he is, which would hold him back in any presidential bid.

13. Tulsi Gabbard

The Hawaii Congresswoman is both well known and seems inclined to run, giving her a step up over many of the others on the list. However, she often makes herself a target. She met with Assad, she entered the 2020 election at the Convention, she was slow to endorse Elizabeth Warren after the convention, and she met with Assad. That last one is mentioned twice because of how much criticism she received over it. Her positions on foreign policy lead her to regular clashes with fellow Democrats. Still, she has branded herself as an outsider, a progressive, and an underdog, and she brings with her a dedicated following that would certainly support her making another shot at the White House.


12. Julian Castro

The other Castro brother, Julian served as HUD Secretary under Presidents Obama and Biden, and is extremely well connected to the Democratic Establishment. He appealed to younger voters and Hispanics during his short lived 2020 bid. And despite doing poorly in the polls, his fundraising was nothing to scoff at. He certainly has the potential to be a strong contender, although his inexperience definitely held him back, and the fact that Iowa and New Hampshire, critical to a successful presidential bid, are largely white and older, he would have difficulties getting his campaign bid off the ground.

11. Jared Polis

Polis is a candidate with strong potential. Having won narrowly in 2018, Polis staved off the Red Wave in a swing state, something few other democrats where able to accomplish. Since winning office, Polis has enjoyed high approval ratings and has governed more liberally than his predecessor. He's an unknown nationwide, which hurts his potential candidacy, but if enough effort can be put into averting that, then Polis could certainly prove to be a strong candidate.

10. Amy Klobuchar
 
Amy Klobuchar has to be one of the Democrats looking at the 2020 results and wondering “what if I ran?” She passed on a 2020 presidential bid, and instead became a frequent surrogate for Vice President Warren. Had she entered, Klobuchar would have been a serious contender, maybe even have won. Still, what if’s don’t help now, and Klobuchar seems to be at least weighing her odds at a 2024 bid. The only thing holding her back from being higher is the fact that she has also already declared her intention to seek re-election. The legality of her seeking both offices at once is questionable, and the fact that she is up for re-election at all puts her in an awkward position.

9. Gretchen Whitmer

The first term Michigan Governor is an odd choice to appear this high on the list. But she drew national attention with the Keynote at the 2020 DNC. She has also maintained high approval ratings in her home state. She has a level of appeal among each of the different wings of the Democratic Party, and the Midwest is a region that the Democrats have been struggling in. In short, se seems to have everything going for her. But often times, candidates who appear to have everything going for them usually fall apart quick. That’s a curse she would need to break.

8. Gavin Newsom

A bit of an obvious choice, the California Governor benefits from a strong fundraising base and popularity in the delegate heavy state of California. He has proven to be a strong fundraiser as well. Governor of California may be a bit of an obvious candidate, but that isn’t inherently a weakness. With California now part of the Super Tuesday contests, Newsom would have early access to a large pool of delegates early in the nomination contests. Still, his past affairs may come back to bite him, as well as the ambitions of another California politician….

7. Chris Murphy

The Connecticut Senator has made himself known as a staunch advocate for Gun Control, on more than one occasion. Like Amy Klobuchar, he is probably among the many Democrats wondering what would have happened if he ran in 2020. Outside of Gun issues, he is a progressive leaning Democrat, especially in recent years. He has also been one of the more social media savvy Democrats. The combination of a liberal record, his youth and appeal to younger voters, and the fact that he is a more of a fresh face are all strong positives.   But like Klobuchar, he will have to weigh a run against a bid for re-election. Connecticut law allows him to seek two offices at once, but that might not be the best thing for his career.

6. Roy Cooper

The North Carolina Governor has often found himself battling his state legislature for control of the state, but that hasn’t hurt his approvals at home. With a 56% approval rating, the swing state Governor would certainly be a strong candidate in any election. He represents a more moderate, pragmatic type of Democrat, and if Russ Feingold could be said to be the leader of the “progressive wing,” Roy Cooper is certainly the leader of the moderate wing. Unlike others on this list, Cooper won’t have to juggle re-election with a presidential bid because he’s term limited anyway. In some ways, he has become one of the most prominent faces in the fight against Gerrymandering nationwide, and has occasionally found himself in the national spotlight. But as the Democratic base becomes more liberal, Cooper may find himself left behind by the party at large, weighing him down on this list.

5. Beau Biden

Entering the top 5, we have Delaware Governor Beau Biden. There is little to say about Biden that hasn’t been said about his father. He is a candidate so obvious to continue the Biden era policies. Like Cooper, he will be term limited in 2024, so there won’t be much for him to lose if he wants to make the plunge and run . Also like Cooper, his approval ratings have been high throughout his tenure. Currently, he is rated as the most popular Democratic Governor nationwide, and the third most popular overall. 62% of Delaware voters approve of him. He would certainly enter any primary contest with his father’s endorsement, and could very easily become a favorite candidate if he jumped in. In his own right, he has a governing record as a staunch liberal with a pragmatic streak, one who has earned praise among Progressives, Liberals, and Moderates alike. It’s easy to see why he cracks the top 5 of this list.

4.  Cory Booker

Once referred to as the second Obama, Cory Booker really needs no introduction. He is a charismatic, young(ish), African American, with a record as a liberal voice in the Senate. His ties to Wall Street hurt him in 2020, but he has taken steps to rebrand himself as a progressive champion. He has made civil rights and criminal justice reform pet issues of his, and while the ties to Wall Street are an issue for many, it can’t be denied that he had some of the strongest fundraising in 2020. Booker’s candidacy failed because he never fully committed to running. He kept his foot in the door in regards to his Senate seat a big longer than he should have if he wanted to seriously run. But this won’t hold him back in 2024. The other, obvious hurdle that he would have to overcome is the email scandal of 2020. Booker has faced accusations of dirty politics before, but this was to a whole different level. While he insists that his withdrawal had no deal attached to it, it hasn’t stopped people from speculating that he knew more than he let on. Its hard to imagine that this will still be an issue come 2024, but its still worth keeping in mind.

3. Kirsten Gillibrand

If Cory Booker is Obama 2.0, then Gillibrand is Hillary Clinton 2.0. In 2020, Gillibrand won an upset victory in the New Hampshire primary over the former Governor and Senator Maggie Hassan, then promptly fizzled out. Her potential as a candidate is still there, although its unclear if she will run given that her Senate Seat will by up in 24. First elected as a blue dog, Gillibrand has made herself a progressive hero in recent years, especially on Women’s issues. When fellow Senator Al Franken was accused of sexual assault, she was the first to call for his resignation, much to the frustration of her colleagues, even if they eventually came around to the idea. If she could replicate her New Hampshire victory again, she could very easily win the nomination.

2. Jason Kander

The boy wonder from Missouri, Kander made national headlines with a senate ad back in 2016, then found himself in the spotlight again when he defeated incumbent Roy Blunt, then again when he almost won the Iowa Caucus against the better funded, better known Vice President. From there, Kander finished a strong third place in the nominating contests, and played kingmaker at the convention. He has a brand of personal popularity in his home state, and although his approval ratings took a hit during his presidential bid, he maintains a 53% approval rating in an otherwise Republican state. Kander is no Joe Manchin either. He has been a staunch liberal during his time in the Senate. The young, charismatic veteran could be just what the Democratic party needs. But first, he has to win re-election against a strong competitor. And even then, he might not be in the strongest position to run right after his re-election contest. Even then, he isn’t a sure primary winner.

1. Kamala Harris

The obvious pick for the top of the list is last year’s runner up. Kamala Harris is set to coast to re-election in 2022, and from there has a powerful springboard to seek the Nomination. She already ran once, and is still a well known name nationwide. Like Booker and Gillibrand, she has drawn comparisons to Obama and Clinton. Polling indicates that she would enter the primaries as the leading candidate, especially if Kander was to stay out of the race. But she can’t be put at the top of this list without stating the obvious. The 2024 contest is truly going to be her race to lose. Its gonna be up to her to fend off the competition, and she didn’t perform that well in the first two contests last time she ran. Either way, she will certainly be a force to reckon with in 2024.

[Edgeofnight]

Part 37: Fall 2021

Republicans hold Congressional Seat in Texas with relative ease.

September 12th, 2021

In a relatively easy win, Republicans have held Secretary McCaul’s seat in Congress by a 7 point margin. The result is nothing more than an “as expected” for both sides. The district voted for Republican Nikki Haley by 12 points, meaning there was a 5 point swing towards the Democrats.

Texas 10th Congressional District Special Election, 2021

Stacy Hock (R) -- 53.2%
Mike Sigiel (D) -- 46.0%

Senator Dianne Feinstein announces resignations over health concerns.

October 25th, 2021

California’s Senior Senator Dianne Feinstein has announced her early retirement, saying she will step down the first of November citing her ongoing struggle with Heart Disease.

The announcement was largely expected, as Senator Feinstein’s ongoing health struggles have become more and more publicly known and the number of votes she has missed has increased dramatically over the past few months. In a written statement, Feinstein expressed her deep gratitude for the years of support California has given her, and she promised to find other ways to serve as she struggles with disease.

 Her announced departure has thrown the California political scene into a frenzy. Speculation has already swirled about replacements. Governor Gavin Newsom will play a critical role of appointing Senator Feinstein’s replacement, but that won’t stop others from running for the seat.

“An open seat is truly something special,” said Democratic Party Chairman Eric Bauman. The race to replace Feinstein is expected to be crowded, but Bauman identified who he considers to be the three strongest candidates: Attorney General Xavier Becerra, Lieutenant Governor Eleni Kounalakis, and former State Senator Kevin De Leon. No one has yet declared themselves a candidate, but Leon stated he is “seriously considering running.”

2021 Election Results Diaz and Herring win with ease, while Murphy squeaks by on a narrow win.

November 2nd, 2021

Virginia Gubernatorial:

Herring= 54.7%/1,638,144
Stewart= 45.3%/1,356,636

NJ Gubernatorial:

Phil Murphy = 49.7%/1,041,068
Jack Ciattarelli = 48.9%/1,024,311

NYC Mayoral:

Diaz = 70.1%/911,711
O'Reilly = 27.6%/358,962

Other Headlines:

September 7th: Democrats have fundraising advantage ahead of 2022 midterms.
September 15th: Steve Kerrigan declares bid for Massachusetts Governor, as long term rep Steve Lynch announces retirement.
September 23rd: Stacey Abrams declares second bid for Georgia Governor.
October 9th: Health Scare for West Virginia Governor Jim Justice forces him to resign. Special election for Governor will be held in 2022
October 12th: Larry Hogan most popular Governor in the Country, Jim DeMint least popular.
October 15th: Bernie Sanders still the most popular Senator nationwide, Lisa Murkowski least popular amongst constituents.
October 22nd: Missouri Secretary of State Ashcroft will challenge Senator Jason Kander in 2022
November 1st: Hilda Solis takes office as CA Senator. Feinstein draws bipartisan applause in farewell address.
November 3rd: Democrats take control of VA House of Delegates in historic win. Danica Roem becomes first Transgender statewide elected official.
November 9th: Kentucky Governor Allison Grimes to resign for Opioid Committee, cites direction of the Committee.
November 9th: Kevin De Leon declares bid for Feinstein’s seat.
November 10th: Sununu “understands” Grimes’ resignation, says Committee is almost ready to release policy recommendation.
November 12th: Nan Whaley will challenge Portman in Ohio Senate race.
November 18th: Solis will seek a full term in the Senate, undeterred by challengers.
November 22nd: Eric Garcetti is in on the CA senate race.
November 23rd: Republican Travis Allen withdraws from Governor’s race to run for Feinstein’s seat.

Haley Approval Rating:
Approve -- 50%
Disapprove -- 44%
Unsure:6%

Congressional Generic Ballot:
Republicans -- 44%
Democrats -- 42%
Unsure:14%

2020 Polling: Haley vs Generic Democrat
Haley -- 45%
Generic Democrat -- 40%
Unsure/Other: 15%

[Edgeofnight]

Infobox for the above, I am aware the home state is wrong for Ducey, but eh. I'd have to remake it from scratch to fix it.

[Edgeofnight]

Boooooo how does Murphy win reelection??

Cause he's the best governor ever and no one can convince New Jersey otherwise.

On a serious note, NJ is a solid blue state, in a fairly neutral environment, and Ciatterelli doesn't receive a lot of money from the national party, which puts him at a massive monetary disadvantage considering Murphy is loaded.

[Edgeofnight]

Who is Diaz again?

Ruben Diaz Jr.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rub%C3%A9n_D%C3%ADaz_Jr.

[Edgeofnight]

RETCON

I have decided to retcon the results of the 2018 New York Gubernatorial election, which in turn triggers a few other retcons.

Basically, Miner enters the race as an independent as she plans to do irl. In a more republican enviorment, Stefanik enters the governor's race and wins the nomination at the convention, mostly because of her fundraising. This, combined with Nixon and the Green party, and the national environment being pro republican, leads to a chain reaction of Cuomo losing the 2018 NY gubernatorial election. This in turn means that he does not run for President in 2020, nor is he considered or considering becoming a candidate for 2024. His 2020 supporters mostly divide themselves among de Blasio, Booker, and Gillibrand.

At the time she takes office, Stefanik is the second youngest governor in the nation, and the youngest governor in New York. She is eventually considered as a presidential candidate, but declines to run. She later is on Haley's vp short list, but is eliminated early on.

[Edgeofnight]

Expect an update in the next two or three days

[Edgeofnight]

Part 38: Winter 2021-2022

Justice Anthony Kennedy has passed away peacefully

Supreme Justice Anthony Kennedy has passed away peacefully in his home, a spokeswoman for the Court has confirmed.

The former 9th Circuit Appeals judge, Kennedy was first appointed to the court in 1988, replacing Justice Lewis F. Powell. In recent years, Justice Kennedy was the deciding vote on numerous cases, including such landmark cases as Obergefell v. Hodges and Citizens United v FEC. His tenure on the court is one of the longest in American History. Kennedy has often been referred to as the courts “swing vote” a title he intensely disliked.  

President Haley, in a statement released shortly after the news broke, expressing “deep sorrow for his family, his loved ones, and the nation. The country has lost one of its finest legal minds.”  He is survived by his wife and three children.

Haley nominates Patrick Wyrick to replace Kennedy

Oklahoma Supreme Court Justice Patrick Wyrick has been selected by President Haley to replace Justice Anthony Kennedy. The forty year old conservative justice has earned praise from Senate Republicans, who have all praised Wyrick’s nomination. However, Wyrick has earned criticism from Senate Democrats. Several republicans, including Ted Cruz, Donald Trump, and Tom Cotton, have called the attacks politically motivated, Cruz particularly attacked Senators Jason Kander and Kamala Harris, saying that their attacks were motivated by ambition, and that they where ignoring Wyrick’s credentials as a judge.

Other Headlines:

December 8th: Senator Matt Bevin endorses Paul’s primary challenger as Conway rules out challenge to Beshear in Democratic Primary.  
December 15th: Senator Hirono (D-HI) to resign over health concerns. Governor Hanabusa to appoint Shan Tsutsui as interim replacement. Tsutsui to run in the primary.
December 18th: Templeton to resign as Chief of Staff ahead of expected run for South Carolina Governor. Bossie to serve as interim Chief of Staff as search for replacement begins.
December 19th: American Bar Association split on Wyrick's nomination to the Supreme Court, rated "Qualified" with a minority rating "Not Qualified."
January 5th: Ambassador Heck rebukes efforts to draft him for the Senate race, continuing Republicans struggle to find a candidate in Nevada.
January 20th: Templeton to declare run for South Carolina Governor, Challenging DeMint in the Republican Primary.
January 21st: Haley delivers "State of the Union," touting sucessful first year and laying out an agenda for 'civil reform" and an ambitious foreign policy agenda. Kentucky Attorney General Andy Beshear delivers the State of the Union Response.
January 22nd: Rubio to reintroduce Immigration bill, Republican leaders hoping to avoid fight on issue before the midterm
January 23rd: Fmr. Virginia Governor Ed Gillespie to become new White House Chief of Staff.
February 7th: Bill De Blasio in on NY-GOV, frontrunner to Challenge Stefanik.
February 9th: Congressman Setti Warren to run for Massachusetts Governor
February 23rd: Massive Earthquake in Mexico impacts 100,000.

Haley Approval Rating:
Approve -- 49%
Disapprove -- 41%
Unsure --  10%

Congressional Generic Ballot
Republicans -- 46%
Democrats -- 43%
Unsure -- 11%

2024 Polling: Haley vs Generic Democrat
Haley -- 48%
Generic Democrat -- 39%
Unsure/Other: 13%

Approval of Patrick Wyrick's nomination to the Supreme Court:
Approve -- 46%
Disapprove -- 40%
Unsure/No Opinion -- 14%

[Edgeofnight]

Biden's Supreme Court Picks

Taking office, Biden already had one Supreme Court seat to fill. With a Democratic Senate, it seemed unlikely that whoever he nominated would be rejected by the Senate. But for this first seat, his nominee was essentially chosen. To the ire of Progressives, Biden pledged to renominate Merrick Garland to the Supreme Court. He did just that, and within a month of taking office, Judge Merrick Garland was confirmed to the U.S. Supreme Court, becoming its 113th Associate Justice by a margin of 60 - 37 votes. But Garland was not Biden’s only pick.

In April of 2017, just two months after Garland was confirmed to the bench, Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg announced her intentions to retire. Speculation swirled about Biden’s potential appointments, and the President released a short list of 7 names CFPB Director Richard Cordray, California Supreme Court Justices Goodwin Liu and Leondra Kruger, Ninth Circuit Judge Michelle Friedland, DC Circuit Court Judge Sri Srinivasan, District Court Judges Andrea Wood and Ketanji Brown Jackson, although interviews were conducted with several other potential candidates. After a few weeks, Biden had narrowed the list to three names: Kruger, Friedland, and Cordray. Senate Republicans seemed displeased with any nomination to the Supreme Court, and Senate Minority Leader promised to fight any “activist” judges appointed. When Biden announced Kruger as his appointment, McConnell and Senate Republicans promised to filibuster her nomination until a new judge was nominated. Schumer attempted negotiations with McConnell, but McConnell would not budge. Thus, Schumer’s hand was forced. The Senate Democrats invoked the Nuclear Option to get Kruger on the bench. She was confirmed in the end by a margin of 54-42.

Biden would get a third appointment, despite his short term in office. In June of 2018, Judge Stephen Breyer announced his retirement. The nomination process around Breyer’s replacement attracted less attention than Ginsburg’s, and the short list looked similar. The final four candidates this time where Paul J. Watford, Srinivasan,  Ketanji Brown Jackson, and Mariano-Florentino Cuéllar. Biden’s ultimate pick was Cuéllar, another California Supreme Court Justice. Again, Republicans opposed this judicial nominee, but there was not much that could be done about it. Cuellar was confirmed in August of 2018, just a few months before Republicans would storm back to control of the Senate.

The Roberts Court (2019)
Chief Justice
John Roberts (b. 1955, conservative, appointed by G. W Bush in 2005)

Associate Justices
Anthony Kennedy (b. 1936, swing, appointed by Reagan in 1988)
Clarence Thomas (b. 1948, conservative, appointed by G. H. W. Bush in 1991)
Samuel Alito (b. 1950, conservative, appointed by G. W. Bush in 2006)
Sonia Sotomayor (b. 1954, liberal, appointed by Obama in 2009)
Elena Kagan (b. 1960, liberal, appointed by Obama in 2010)
Merrick Garland (b. 1952, liberal, appointed by Biden in 2017)
Leondra Kruger (b. 1976, liberal, appointed by Biden in 2017)
Mariano-Florentino Cuéllar (b. 1972, liberal, appointed by Biden in 2018)

By Ideology:

SOTOMAYOR  CUELLAR  KRUGER  KAGAN  GARLAND KENNEDY ROBERTS  ALITO  THOMAS