Beau Lives: 2019 - 2029

[Edgeofnight]

Part Ten: IOWA 2020

Vice President Elizabeth Warren -- 29.72% -- 17 Delegates
Sen. Jason Kander -- 29.50% -- 17 Delegates
Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand -- 15.52% -- 9 Delegates
Sen. Kamala Harris -- 11.34% -- 0 Delegates
Sen. Cory Booker -- 7.64% -- 0 Delegates
Sen. Maggie Hassan -- 6.28% -- 0 Delegates

Mr. Donald Trump -- 36.56% -- 12 Delegates
Sen. Ben Sasse -- 20.32% -- 6 Delegates
Sen. Ted Cruz -- 18.17% -- 5 Delegates
Fmr. Governor John Kasich -- 6.97% -- 2 Delegates
Fmr. Governor Nikki Haley -- 6.53% -- 2 Delegates
Sen. Marco Rubio -- 6.02% - 2 Delegates
Gov. Scott Walker -- 3.93% -- 1 Delegate
Gov. Charlie Baker -- 0.96% -- 0 Delegates

[center[/center]


Following the Caucuses, Governor Walker suspended his presidential campaign. Governor Walker’s withdrawal was overdue according to many. He had never polled within the top three, and he stood little chance of winning the nomination from the get go. One Washington Post analyst claimed that Governor Walker “missed his chance” in the 2016 race.

The big winner of the night was Donald Trump. Not only had he won, he had won by 16 points. He had reclaimed the frontrunner position that he had been trying to seize from the Cruz Campaign since the start of the race. Now, the nomination was his to lose. He had momentum on his side, and his supporters were more emboldend than ever before. While it might be easy to call Warren the other big winner, her win was much less impressive. She only narrowly beat back Kander, and beyond that her win simply didn’t carry the importance. Unlike Trump’s win, it didn’t propel her to the front of the pack, it simply kept her campaign afloat. The Kander campaign claimed the second place finish meant that momentum was on his side.

The biggest loser of the night was Senator Cruz. Not only did he lose, he didn’t even place second. He had underperformed Trump by 20%. His campaign was hemorrhaging support and money. Many Republican leaders and politicians, who were supporting Cruz to try and deny Trump the nomination, where now looking at the Kasich, Sasse, and even Haley Campaigns. The Rubio campaign was also now dead, but its corpse would be dragged along by the GOP for a little while longer.

[Edgeofnight]

I just finished "Promise Me, Dad." This TL is great, wish it was real life...

I'm actually reading through the book now, its why I've been writing this tl a lot lately. Anyway,

Part Eleven: Tense Times before New Hampshire


Biden: “Warren is Worrisome. Kander and Booker more likable.”



During an interview, Biden suffered another of his trademark gaffes. When answering questions about the current Democratic field, Biden spoke to each of the candidates strengths, while avoiding endorsing any particular candidate. When asked about his Vice President, Elizabeth Warren, Biden spoke about her strong credentials, and leadership as Vice President. However, as the conversation continued, Biden was asked why the Kander and Booker campaigns where gathering steam. In response,  Biden began to talk about the “electability” of Warren, and said that it was worrying how voters seemed not to like her. He also stated that voters seemed to like Kander and Booker more. The interview wrapped up shortly after, but the damage had been done to the Warren Campaign.

Candidates make final pitch to voters before Critical New Hampshire Primary.



In the final debate before the New Hampshire primary, each candidate found themselves making a pitch to voters. Not only on policy, but on their viability as candidates. In that regard, Ted Cruz and Elizabeth Warren found difficulty in convincing their respective parties of their electability. Ted Cruz was never the most popular individual, to put it kindly. So now, having the core message of his campaign undercut, and having lost the status as the chief “Never Trump” candidate, many of his supporters, especially those in Republican Leadership, began to doubt his candidacy. Senator Mike Lee, once one of Cruz’s chief supporters in the Senate, endorsed Ben Sasse following the Iowa Caucus. However, the Cruz campaign became convinced that a good debate performance could reverse the trend, and help him recapture support. That’s not how it happened however. Cruz suffered from a lackluster performance, and committed a fairly noticeable gaffe. When asked if he would support Donald Trump if he was the nominee, Cruz said plainly that “I could never support Donald Trump.” When challenged on his support of Donald Trump in 2016, Cruz claimed that he never endorsed Trump, only the Republican Party.  Needless to say, voters saw this as a weak excuse. The rest of his performance didn’t make up for this either. On the Democratic side, Warren was plagued by the same issue to plagued Hillary Clinton. Voters liked her record, and her policy positions, but as a candidate she was uncharismatic, and many felt she was unelectable. Add to these concerns the Biden gaffe that occurred just days before the New Hampshire Primary, and Warren’s campaign was stuck with a ghost it couldn’t shake. This problem was only made worse by the likability of Booker, Kander, Gillibrand, and Harris. In the end, it crushed what little (if any) momentum she had from her narrow win in Iowa, and solidified Booker’s lead in the nationwide polling.

Following the debate, Trump lashed out at his Republican Rivals on his favorite platform.



Especially John Kasich,



New Hampshire polling shows Hassan and Kasich in trouble. Harris gains on Booker in South Carolina, while Haley’s lead grows. Nationwide, Booker and Trump lead their packs, with challengers close behind.

New Hampshire Democratic Primary

• Sen. Maggie Hassan -- 22%
• Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand -- 21%
• Vice President Warren -- 14%
• Sen. Cory Booker -- 14%
• Sen. Jason Kander -- 12%
• Sen. Kamala Harris -- 9%
• Undecided/Others -- 8%

South Carolina Democratic Primary

• Sen. Cory Booker -- 30%
• Sen. Kamala Harris -- 28%
• Vice President Warren -- 10%
• Sen. Jason Kander -- 10%
• Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand -- 6%
• Sen. Maggie Hassan -- 3%
• Undecided/Others -- 12%

National Democratic Primaries

• Sen. Cory Booker -- 24%
• Vice President Warren -- 20%
• Sen. Jason Kander -- 18%
• Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand -- 14%
• Sen. Kamala Harris -- 12%
• Sen. Maggie Hassan -- 4%
• Undecided/Others -- 8%

New Hampshire Republican Primary

• Mr. Donald Trump -- 22%
• Fmr. Gov. John Kasich --  21%
• Gov. Charlie Baker -- 20%
• Sen. Marco Rubio -- 10%
• Sen. Ben Sasse -- 6%
• Sen. Ted Cruz -- 5%
• Fmr. Gov. Nikki Haley -- 5%
• Undecided/Others -- 11%

South Carolina Republican Primary

• Fmr. Gov. Nikki Haley -- 39%
• Mr. Donald Trump -- 14%
• Sen. Marco Rubio -- 12%
• Sen. Ben Sasse -- 6%
• Sen. Ted Cruz -- 6%
• Fmr. Gov. John Kasich --  4%
• Gov. Charlie Baker -- 3%
• Undecided/Others -- 16%

National Republican Primary/u]

• Mr. Donald Trump -- 22%
• Sen. Ted Cruz -- 17%
• Fmr. Gov. John Kasich -- 17%
• Sen. Ben Sasse -- 16%
• Fmr. Gov. Nikki Haley -- 10%
• Sen. Marco Rubio -- 4%
• Gov. Charlie Baker -- 3%
• Undecided/Others -- 11%

[Edgeofnight]

Ok so I made the 2016 infobox, then lost it due to my laptop dying. Sooo, we are gonna do the 2020 Post for New Hampshire First, the aftermath post, than the 2016 New Hampshire post.


Part Twelve: New Hampshire, 2020

Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand -- 21.04% -- 6 Delegates
Sen. Maggie Hassan -- 21.00% -- 6 Delegates
Sen. Jason Kander -- 17.35%  -- 5 Delegates
Sen. Cory Booker -- 16.33% --  4 Delegates
Vice President Elizabeth Warren -- 15.54% -- 3 Delegates
Sen. Kamala Harris -- 8.74% -- 0 Delegates

Mr. Donald Trump -- 24.87% -- 7 Delegates
Fmr. Gov. John Kasich -- 24.58% -- 7 Delegates
Gov. Charlie Baker -- 23.58% -- 6 Delegates
Sen. Marco Rubio -- 10.36% -- 3 Delegates
Fmr. Gov. Nikki Haley -- 8.39% -- 0 Delegates
Sen. Ted Cruz -- 5.31% -- 0 Delegates
Sen. Ben Sasse -- 1.78% -- 0 Delegates
Gov. Scott Walker (withdrawn) -- .08% -- 0 Delegates

Following the primaries, many pundits expected Senator Hassan to withdraw her candidacy. However, in a speech to supporters, she claimed a moral victory in the primary. In her view, despite Gillibrand outspending her by 20% or more in the state, Hassan still only narrowly lost. Her spin to supporters was to use this as an example of her besting big money interests, and painted Senator Gillibrand as the wall street candidate in her concession speech. She pledged to stay in the contest, and pull ahead to win the nomination, despite polling dead last. Warren, still running from the Biden Gaffe Machine, only barely managed to get delegates from the granite state. For Gillibrand, the results propelled her into the front page of most major news outlets. Her name recognition increased exponentially, despite her narrow win. Her momentum allowed her to gain in the polls, and her status as a top tier candidate was solidified.



On the Republican side, once again, Donald Trump claimed victory. After pouring all of his money into the Granite State, Governor Baker came out the biggest loser. With no clear path forward, Charlie Baker withdraw, claiming it was unfair to the people of his state and his supporters to continue running with no path to victory. He offered no endorsement after his withdrawal. John Kasich and Donald Trump both claimed victory in some way. In Kasich’s camp, it solidified that the Ohio Governor could stand up to Trump, and reinforced Kasich’s argument that he should be the party’s “Anti-Trump” candidate. Donald Trump claimed that the results made him the presumptive nominee. Indeed, having won both the New Hampshire and Iowa contests, Trump was now solidified as the frontrunner, and had solid momentum on his side. Most other candidates weren't buying his argument, and the opposition to Trump stood firm, preparing for South Carolina and Nevada.

Current Delegate Totals (Democrats):
2,382 Needed for the nomination
Vice President Elizabeth Warren -- 20 Pledged, 253 Unpledged, 273 Total
Sen. Cory Booker -- 4 Pledged, 193 Unpledged, 197 Total
Sen. Kamala Harris -- 0 Pledged, 185 Unpledged, 185 Total
Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand -- 15 Pledged, 79 Unpledged, 94 Total
Sen. Jason Kander -- 22 Pledged, 46 Unpledged, 68 Total
Sen. Maggie Hassan -- 6 Pledged, 8 Unpledged, 14 Total
Remaining -- 3,984 Pledged, 137 Unpledged, 4,212 Total


Current Delegate Totals (Republicans):
1,237 Needed for the Nomination
Mr. Donald Trump -- 19 Delegates
Fmr. Gov. John Kasich -- 9 Delegates
Sen. Ben Sasse -- 6 Delegates
Gov. Charlie Baker (withdrawn) -- 6 Delegates
Sen. Ted Cruz -- 5 Delegates
Sen. Marco Rubio -- 3 Delegates
Fmr. Gov. Nikki Haley -- 0 Delegates
Gov. Scott Walker (withdrawn) -- 0 Delegates
Remaining -- 2,424 Delegates

Popular Vote (Democrats)*:
Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand -- 59,899 (21.04%)
Sen. Maggie Hassan -- 59,785 (21.00%)
Sen. Jason Kander -- 49,394 (17.35)
Sen. Cory Booker -- 46,490 (16.33%)
Vice President Elizabeth Warren -- 44,240 (15.54%)
Sen. Kamala Harris -- 24,881 (8.74%)

Popular Vote (Republicans):
Mr. Donald Trump -- 159,721 (29.47%)
Fmr. Gov. John Kasich -- 98,573  (18.18%)
Gov. Charlie Baker (withdrawn) -- 82,921 (15.30%)
Sen. Ted Cruz -- 55,170 (10.17%)
Sen. Marco Rubio -- 47,811 (8.82%)
Sen. Ben Sasse -- 47,420 (8.74%)
Fmr. Gov. Nikki Haley -- 42,084 (7.76%)
Gov. Scott Walker (withdrawn) -- 8,263 (1.52%)
Total -- 541,963

Author's Note: The date is wrong on both infoboxes. Didn't feel like redoing them to fix it.

Author's Note*: Democrats don't publish the popular vote totals from Iowa, thus this is based solely on New Hampshire.

[Edgeofnight]

Part Thirteen: Fallout

Make America Great Again, Again



On the Tucker Carlson show, the titular host proclaimed that winning both Iowa and New Hampshire made Donald Trump the presumptive nominee. And many in the Republican Party began to agree with him. The most prominent “Never Trump” Republicans, Evan McMullin, Paul Ryan, Mitt Romney, and Jeb Bush began to publicly discuss the potential for a third party conservative candidate to enter the race, although only Evan McMullin left the door open for that candidate to be himself. And many establishment Republicans began to jump ship to the Trump Campaign. Tom Cotton, once a supporter of Ted Cruz, endorsed Trump after the New Hampshire primary, and called on his party to rally around the New York Businessman. Cotton was not the only one. Missouri Senator Josh Hawley, Pennsylvania Senator Pat Toomey, Texas Governor Greg Abbott, and numerous more “establishment” Republicans endorsed Trump, or at least toned down their anti-Trump rhetoric. Still, while most of the opposition to Trump was disheartened, many remained firm. Congressman Justin Amash, Senators Susan Collins and Lindsey Graham, and Former President George Bush all expressed doubt that Trump could win the nomination, despite his back to back victories.  The biggest hurdle to declaring Trump the presumptive nominee was the South Carolina contest. While he won the Palmetto State comfortably in 2016, Fmr. South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley remains deeply popular, and polls well above Mr. Trump. A commanding win for Haley could stop Trump’s momentum, and change the tide of the primary.


Old Guard Retirements kick off leadership races in DC



Back in December of 2018, Senator Mitch McConnell announced his intention to retire at the end of his term. The Senate Majority Leader remains deeply unpopular in his home state, and nationwide, and his public feud’s with the Tea Party and Donald Trump would have invited numerous primary challengers, and his withdrawal from the race increases the likelihood that an establishment Republican can hold the seat. It also represents the end to his term as Senate Majority Leader. The race to replace Senator McConnell as floor leader has taken place mostly behind closed doors, although former Senate Majority Whip John Cornyn, Current whip John Thune, Senator John Barrasso, and Senator Tom Cotton have all expressed their desire to replace McConnell. Senator John Hoeven is also discussed as a possible replacement.

On the Democratic Side, Senator Dick Durbin, the current minority whip, is also retiring at the end of his term. The three leading Democrats to replace Durbin are Senators Amy Klobuchar, Chris van Hollen, and Patty Murray, and DC insiders indicate that Klobuchar is the more likely candidate. The Democrats are also contending with the retirement of Nancy Pelosi, who will not be seeking re-election. Her second in command, Steny Hoyer, seemed like the obvious choice to replace her, but announced that he would instead stay as Democratic Whip. Representatives Cheri Bustos, Tim Ryan, Ben Ray Lujan, Joseph Crowley and Hakeem Jeffries have all joined a crowded race to lead the Democrats in the House.


BREAKING: SENATOR JOHN MCCAIN PASSES AWAY AT AGE 83.


Saturday, February 8th, 2020: Senator, and 2008 GOP Presidential Nominee John McCain has passed away in his struggle against Brain Cancer. He was 83, and is survived by his seven children and numerous grandchildren. Arizona Governor Doug Ducey has announced that he will appoint State Treasurer Jeff DeWit to replace Senator McCain. The nation, and many prominent political figures, mourned Senator McCain’s passing. President Biden issued a statement, calling Senator McCain a true American hero and public servant. Former President Obama stated “John was one of the best men I ever knew.” Presidential candidate Donald Trump called McCain “a true patriot,” while Fmr. Governor John Kasich called McCain “a leader among leaders.”

[Edgeofnight]

Ok so the next part is about 70% done, and will be up either Monday or Tuesday. I wanted to make a brief meta post and explain the comings and goings.

First, I was considering Eric Greitens to be a 2020 GOP presidential candidate, and decided against adding him last minute. Should a scandal like Greiten's come out about a figure already in the timeline, I will try to write the person in question out of the timeline, but if that is not possible, the scandal will be ignored/butterflied out. Second, I am going on a 5 day vacation, followed by my next semester at University. As such, I'm not gonna be able to do infoboxes for every race. I've already made all but one infobox for the next post, so that isn't a concern. They won't go away entirely, but they will be disappearing for a time. Third, the specials aren't going to be a major focus anymore. They aren't as interesting to write, and I am sure they aren't as interesting to read. They will still come out, but not as frequently as I originally planned. Fourth, and finally, I would like to hear some feedback or thoughts on the timeline.

[Edgeofnight]

Part Fourteen: Downfall

NEVADA DEMOCRATIC CAUCUS, 2020

✓ Sen. Cory Booker -- 29.72% -- 14 Delegates
Sen. Kamala Harris -- 24.53% -- 11 Delegates
Vice President Elizabeth Warren -- 22.56% -- 10 Delegates
Sen. Jason Kander -- 10.87% -- 0 Delegates
Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand -- 9.85% -- 0 Delegates
Sen. Maggie Hassan -- 2.26% -- 0 Delegates

SOUTH CAROLINA REPUBLICAN PRIMARY 2020

✓ Fmr. Gov. Nikki Haley -- 49.86% -- 50 Delegates
Mr. Donald Trump -- 29.26% -- 0 Delegates
Sen. Marco Rubio -- 7.76% -- 0 Delegates
Sen. Ted Cruz -- 4.47% -- 0 Delegates
Sen. Ben Sasse -- 4.42% -- 0 Delegates
Fmr. Gov. John Kasich -- 4.03% -- 0 Delegates
Gov. Scott Walker (withdrawn) -- .01% -- 0 Delegates
Gov. Charlie Baker (withdraw) -- .01% -- 0 Delegates

For the Republican party, the results put a stop to Trump’s string of wins, in a state that supported him overwhelmingly in 2016. Still, Haley was a popular former Governor from the Palmetto State, so her win shouldn’t be so surprising. Still, stalling the Trump train at the station has always been the goal of the GOP establishment, and now they had a mark on Trump’s record of victory.
On the Democratic Side, Bookers win in Nevada is unsurprising. With the support of Harry Reid, the state’s long time Democratic Senator, and Catherine Cortez Masto, the State’s Senior Democratic Senator, Booker seemed fated to win the Nevada contest. Still, his win was smaller than expected, and Harris regained some momentum with a strong second place showing over Vice President Elizabeth Warren. Kander’s campaign lost steam, failing to meet the threshold to capture any delegates. The poor showing in Nevada also slowed the momentum of the Gillibrand campaign, who placed worse than Kander.

SOUTH CAROLINA DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY, 2020

✓ Sen. Cory Booker -- 33.34% -- 24 Delegates
Sen. Kamala Harris -- 28.08% -- 19 Delegates
Sen. Jason Kander -- 15.06% -- 10 Delegates
Vice President Elizabeth Warren -- 11.56% -- 0 Delegates
Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand -- 10.20% -- 0 Delegates
Sen. Maggie Hassan -- 1.76% -- 0 Delegates

NEVADA REPUBLICAN CAUCUS, 2020

✓ Mr. Donald Trump -- 24.12% -- 8 Delegates
Sen. Marco Rubio -- 20.23% -- 6 Delegates
Sen. Ben Sasse -- 18.56% -- 6 Delegates
Fmr. Gov. Nikki Haley -- 14.48% -- 4 Delegates
Sen. Ted Cruz -- 12.93% -- 4 Delegates
Fmr. Gov. John Kasich -- 7.53% -- 2 Delegates
Gov. Scott Walker (withdrawn) -- 1.34% -- 0 Delegates
Gov. Charlie Baker (withdrawn) -- .81% -- 0 Delegates

Once again, Booker claimed victory on the Democratic Side. With strong margins among the African American communities (rivaled only by Senator Harris) carried him to victory. Harris continued her second place streak, and maintained momentum from the Nevada contest. Kander eked out a third place finish, and just barely qualified to receive delegates.
On the Republican side, Trump proved that he wasn’t out of the race yet, with a first place finish in Nevada. Rubio had a strong second place showing, which he hoped would regain momentum after disappointing showings in New Hampshire and South Carolina. Sasse and Haley proved themselves to be the main anti-Trump alternatives, with third and fourth place showings respectively.

BREAKING: Senator Ted Cruz suspends presidential bid.

After four consecutive poor showings, Ted Cruz finally suspended his presidential campaign. Once the GOP front runner, Cruz had repeatedly finished poorly in the first four contests, and failed to win a single one. In his withdrawal speech, Cruz claimed that he no longer had a path to victory, and thanked his supporters. Breaking with expectations, Cruz endorsed Nikki Haley in his withdrawal speech, in a move that was widely unexpected. He called the former South Carolina Governor “The conservative leader America needs”, and spent the majority of his speech attacking front runner Donald Trump.

[Edgeofnight]

Part Fifteen (Part 1): Super Tuesday, 2020

Alabama:

Senator Cory Booker -- 39.67% -- 29 Delegates
Senator Kamala Harris -- 33.32% -- 23 Delegates
Senator Jason Kander -- 13.85% -- 0 Delegates
Senator Kirsten Gillibrand -- 6.65% -- 0 Delegates
Vice President Elizabeth Warren -- 5.93% -- 0 Delegates
Senator Maggie Hassan -- .58% -- 0 Delegates

Arkansas:

Senator Jason Kander -- 30.67% -- 13 Delegates
Senator Cory Booker -- 27.55% -- 10 Delegates
Senator Kamala Harris -- 20.38% -- 8 Delegates
Vice President Elizabeth Warren -- 11.60% -- 0 Delegates
Senator Kirsten Gillibrand -- 7.92% -- 0 Delegates
Senator Maggie Hassan -- 1.88% -- 0 Delegates

Arizona:

Senator Kamala Harris -- 31.45% -- 27 Delegates
Senator Jason Kander -- 26.53% --  23 Delegates
Senator Kirsten Gillibrand -- 18.86% -- 16 Delegates
Senator Cory Booker -- 13.34% -- 0 Delegates
Vice President Elizabeth Warren -- 8.91% -- 0 Delegates
Senator Maggie Hassan -- .91% -- 0 Delegates

California:

Senator Kamala Harris -- 51.45% -- 244 Delegates
Vice President Elizabeth Warren -- 19.56% -- 93 Delegates
Senator Jason Kander -- 16.54% -- 79 Delegates
Senator Cory Booker -- 7.45% -- 0 Delegates
Senator Kirsten Gillibrand -- 4.20% -- 0 Delegates
Senator Maggie Hassan -- .80% -- 0 Delegates

Colorado:

Vice President Elizabeth Warren -- 32.98% -- 29 Delegates
Senator Kamala Harris -- 25.58% -- 22 Delegates
Senator Cory Booker -- 18.22% -- 16 Delegates
Senator Jason Kander -- 12.62% -- 0 Delegates
Senator Kirsten Gillibrand -- 9.35% -- 0 Delegates
Senator Maggie Hassan -- 1.25% -- 0 Delegates

Georgia:

Senator Cory Booker -- 37.56% -- 58 Delegates
Senator Kamala Harris -- 29.86% -- 46 Delegates
Senator Jason Kander -- 13.95% -- 0 Delegates
Senator Kirsten Gillibrand -- 10.34% -- 0 Delegates
Vice President Elizabeth Warren -- 7.29% -- 0 Delegates
Senator Maggie Hassan -- 1.00% -- 0 Delegates

Massachusetts:

Vice President Elizabeth Warren -- 53.35% -- 56 Delegates
Senator Kirsten Gillibrand -- 18.86% -- 20 Delegates
Senator Jason Kander -- 15.38% -- 16 Delegates
Senator Maggie Hassan -- 6.78% -- 0 Delegates
Senator Kamala Harris -- 3.32% -- 0 Delegates
Senator Cory Booker -- 2.31% -- 0 Delegates

Minnesota:

Vice President Elizabeth Warren -- 36.56% -- 38 Delegates
Senator Jason Kander -- 20.89% -- 22 Delegates
Senator Kirsten Gillibrand -- 16.62% -- 17 Delegates
Senator Kamala Harris -- 13.52% -- 0 Delegates
Senator Maggie Hassan -- 6.56% -- 0 Delegates
Senator Cory Booker -- 5.85% -- 0 Delegates

Oklahoma:

Senator Jason Kander -- 33.59% -- 20 Delegates
Vice President Elizabeth Warren -- 28.89% -- 18 Delegates
Senator Kamala Harris -- 13.23% -- 0 Delegates
Senator Kirsten Gillibrand -- 12.82% -- 0 Delegates
Senator Cory Booker -- 8.82% -- 0 Delegates
Senator Maggie Hassan -- 2.65% -- 0 Delegates

Tennessee:

Senator Jason Kander -- 34.67% -- 23 Delegates
Senator Cory Booker -- 16.96% -- 11 Delegates
Senator Kirsten Gillibrand -- 16.13% -- 11 Delegates
Senator Kamala Harris -- 15.85% -- 11 Delegates
Vice President Elizabeth Warren -- 15.53% -- 11 Delegates
Senator Maggie Hassan -- .86% -- 0 Delegates

Texas:

Senator Kamala Harris -- 26.04% -- 69 Delegates
Senator Jason Kander -- 21.53% -- 57 Delegates
Senator Cory Booker -- 19.86% -- 52 Delegates
Vice President Elizabeth Warren -- 16.62% -- 44 Delegates
Senator Kirsten Gillibrand -- 14.37% -- 0 Delegates
Senator Maggie Hassan -- 1.60% -- 0 Delegates

Vermont:

Vice President Elizabeth Warren -- 44.45% -- 26 Delegates
Senator Maggie Hassan -- 14.86% -- 0 Delegates
Senator Kirsten Gillibrand -- 14.55% -- 0 Delegates
Senator Jason Kander -- 12.23% -- 0 Delegates
Senator Kamala Harris -- 7.35% -- 0 Delegates
Senator Cory Booker -- 6.56% -- 0 Delegates

Virginia:

Vice President Elizabeth Warren -- 28.82% -- 35 Delegates
Senator Cory Booker -- 24.34% -- 29 Delegates
Senator Kamala Harris -- 20.35% -- 24 Delegates
Senator Jason Kander -- 16.62% -- 20 Delegates
Senator Kirsten Gillibrand -- 9.12% -- 0 Delegates
Senator Maggie Hassan -- .75% -- 0 Delegates

Current Delegate Totals (Democrats):
2,382 Needed for the nomination
Sen. Kamala Harris -- 504 Pledged. 199 Unpledged, 703 Total
Vice President Elizabeth Warren -- 379 Pledged, 240 Unpledged, 619 Total
Sen. Cory Booker -- 247 Pledged, 204 Unpledged, 451 Total
Sen. Jason Kander -- 304 Pledged, 63 Unpledged, 367 Total
Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand -- 79 Pledged, 84 Unpledged, 163 Total
Sen. Maggie Hassan -- 6 Pledged, 3 Unpledged, 9 Total
Remaining -- 2,532 Pledged, 108 Unpledged, 2,640 Total

Stay tuned for Republican Results and the Aftermath/

[Edgeofnight]

----

Alabama:

Mr. Donald Trump -- 28.83% -- 18 Delegates
Senator Ben Sasse -- 24.45% -- 14 Delegates
Fmr. Governor Nikki Haley -- 22.56% -- 16 Delegates
Senator Marco Rubio -- 16.65% -- 1 Delegate
Fmr. Governor John Kasich -- 7.51% -- 1 Delegate

Arkansas:

Mr. Donald Trump -- 30.63% --  15 Delegates
Senator Ben Sasse -- 23.35% -- 11 Delegates
Fmr. Governor Nikki Haley -- 20.53% -- 10 Delegates
Senator Marco Rubio -- 17.75% -- 1 Delegates
Fmr. Governor John Kasich -- 7.74% -- 0 Delegates

California:

Fmr. Governor John Kasich --28.86% -- 58 Delegates
Fmr. Governor Nikki Haley -- 24.45% -- 48 Delegates
Senator Marco Rubio -- 20.12% -- 39 Delegates
Mr. Donald Trump -- 17.75% -- 27 Delegates
Senator Ben Sasse -- 8.82% -- 0 Delegates

Colorado:
Unbound Caucus vote, Fmr. Governor Nikki Haley won, earning 23 Delegates, while Fmr. Governor John Kasich and Mr Donald Trump both earned 7.

Georgia:

Fmr. Governor Nikki Haley -- 28.85% -- 28 Delegates
Senator Marco Rubio -- 27.62% -- 21 Delegates
Mr. Donald Trump -- 23.34% -- 17 Delegates
Senator Ben Sasse -- 11.42% -- 5 Delegates
Fmr. Governor John Kasich -- 8.77% -- 2 Delegates

Massachusetts:

Fmr. Governor John Kasich -- 34.84% -- 15 Delegates
Mr. Donald Trump -- 25.35% -- 11 Delegates
Fmr. Governor Nikki Haley -- 20.01% -- 8 Delegates
Senator Marco Rubio -- 13.35% -- 6 Delegates
Senator Ben Sasse -- 6.45% -- 2 Delegates

Minnesota:

Fmr. Governor Nikki Haley -- 29.97% -- 12 Delegates
Mr. Donald Trump -- 26.65% --  12 Delegates
Senator Marco Rubio -- 15.34% -- 6 Delegates
Fmr. Governor John Kasich -- 14.69% -- 4 Delegates
Senator Ben Sasse -- 13.35% -- 4 Delegates

Ohio:

Fmr. Governor John Kasich -- 35.86% -- 66 Delegates
Mr. Donald Trump -- 32.26% -- 0 Delegates
Fmr. Governor NIkki Haley -- 20.65% -- 0 Delegates
Senator Marco Rubio -- 6.52% -- 0 Delegates
Senator Ben Sasse -- 4.71% -- 0 Delegates

Oklahoma:

Mr. Donald Trump -- 30.64% -- 18 Delegates
Senator Ben Sasse -- 26.23% -- 10 Delegates
Fmr. Governor Nikki Haley -- 19.35% -- 8 Delegates
Senator Marco Rubio -- 13.38% -- 2 Delegates
Fmr. Governor John Kasich -- 10.1% -- 2 Delegates

Tennessee:

Fmr. Governor Nikki Haley -- 31.06% -- 22 Delegates
Mr. Donald Trump -- 25.55% -- 19 Delegates
Senator Marco Rubio -- 20.15% -- 14 Delegates
Fmr. Governor John Kasich -- 12.45% -- 2 Delegates
Senator Ben Sasse -- 10.79% -- 1 Delegate

Texas:

Fmr. Governor Nikki Haley -- 30.17% -- 62 Delegates
Mr. Donald Trump -- 27.75% -- 60 Delegates
Senator Marco Rubio -- 20.55% -- 25 Delegates
Fmr. Governor John Kasich -- 12.62% -- 6 Delegates
Senator Ben Sasse -- 8.91% -- 3 Delegates

Vermont:

Fmr. Governor John Kasich -- 33.43% -- 7 Delegates
Mr. Donald Trump -- 23.45% -- 5 Delegates
Fmr. Governor Nikki Haley -- 21.12% -- 4 Delegates
Senator Marco Rubio -- 18.97% -- 0 Delegates
Senator Ben Sasse -- 3.03% -- 0 Delegates

Virginia:

Fmr. Governor Nikki Haley -- 31.65% -- 16 Delegates
Mr. Donald Trump -- 23.86% -- 12 Delegates
Senator Marco Rubio -- 19.42% -- 10 Delegates
Fmr. Governor John Kasich -- 18.07% -- 9 Delegates
Senator Ben Sasse -- 7.00% -- 2 Delegates

Current Delegate Totals (Republicans)

1,237 Needed for the Nomination
Fmr. Gov. Nikki Haley -- 311 Delegates
Mr. Donald Trump -- 248 Delegates
Fmr. Gov. John Kasich -- 191 Delegates
Sen. Marco Rubio -- 133 Delegates
Sen. Ben Sasse (withdrawn) -- 67 Delegates
Sen. Ted Cruz (withdrawn) -- 8 Delegates
Gov. Charlie Baker (withdrawn) -- 6 Delegates
Remaining -- 1,537 Delegates

Senators Hassan, Gillibrand, and Sasse, withdraw from Presidential Race, Haley and Harris the new frontrunnners.

After poor showings on Tuesday Contests, the race for the White House dwindled to 7, with the withdrawal of four U.S Senators from the primary contests. On the Democratic side, Senators Maggie Hassan (NH) and Kirsten Gillibrand (NY) ended their white house bids. Senator Hassan, who massively trailed her opponents, was widely expected to withdraw after losing her home state, but instead pledged to stay in the race. But with her money and support drying up, her campaign staff was beginning to call it quits, and the candidate decided to withdraw. The collapse of Kirsten Gillibrand is more significant. After a promising first place finish in the New Hampshire primary, the Gillibrand campaign quickly fizzled out, failing to convert the momentum from her victory into actual support. Shortly after her withdrawal, Senator Gillibrand endorsed Vice President Elizabeth Warren, while Hassan endorsed Senator Kamala Harris.

On the Republican side, Senator Ben Sasse of Nebraska, who had a similarly poor showing in Super Tuesday, withdrew. Despite a promising second place finish in Iowa, Senator Sasse told supporters that he had no path to victory. Sasse presented an “anti-endorsement” of Donald Trump, and praised Senator Rubio, and the two former Governors.

[Edgeofnight]

So it seems like Hostthenpost went down or something. I'm not sure if it is permenant or not, so I'm gonna give it a few days, and if it doesn't come back up, I'll reupload them to Google Photos and post them there. Going forward, I will probably just use google photos. The links are a lot messier, if anyone knows a way to fix that let me know, but the images come out looking a lot better on google photos than Atlas' native hosting.

Edit: Google photos seem only to appear on my end. Gonna have to use the Atlas native hosting service. If anyone has a better one, let me know. I'm aware the quality has dropped, but until I find a better hosting platform, its all I got.


Part 16: The Path Forward

Nikki Haley, the new establishment leader.

The Fmr. South Carolina Governor had proven her metal on Super Tuesday, maintaining her lead over the bombastic Donald Trump and her other challengers. Now Haley was earning endorsements from establishment leaders across the Republican party. Texas Governor Greg Abbott, Senator Bob Corker, Iowa Senator Joni Ernst, Nebraska Senator Deb Fischer, Missouri Governor Eric Greitens, Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker, and the Bush family all endorsed Haley shortly before or shortly after the Super Tuesday contests. And with a significant bump in the polls, Haley now seemed to be in control of the Republican party. Still, Rubio and Kasich continued to siphon establishment support, but Haley had been established as the main alternative to Trump.


Leaked Memo: Rubio campaign “going all in on Florida.”

In a memo leaked to the New York Times from the Florida Senator’s campaign, the desperate nature of the Rubio campaign was on full display. Following a worse-than expected performance on Super Tuesday, the Rubio campaign has decided to divert the majority of its funding to his home state in an attempt to regain momentum. Still, polling indicates that he won’t waltz to victory, and he is certain to face a difficult battle for the future of his political career.

Biden 2020? Democrats prepare for contested convention as candidates fight for every vote.

Following the Super Tuesday contests, California Senator Kamala Harris surpassed Vice President Elizabeth Warren in terms of total delegates. However, despite being the leading Democrat in the race, Senator Harris would need to win 73% of the remaining delegates to win the nomination on the first ballot. In a race with four candidates, that is a possible by highly unlikely scenario. Many Democrats have begun to talk about nominating a “compromise candidate,” one who hasn’t ran in the Democratic Primary, but could still unify the party. The most commonly mentioned name is President Joe Biden, but the white house seems reluctant to open that door. In a press briefing, Biden’s press secretary stated that the President doesn’t seem himself as a potential candidate, but remains confident that the Democrats would nominate a strong candidate regardless.

Meanwhile, of the candidates actually running, each is trying to muscle the others out of the race. The Warren Campaign and Kander Campaigns have clashed numerous times in the midwest, while Harris and Booker are trying to muscle each other out in the South.When approached for a comment, each campaign voiced confidence that they could secure the nomination on the first ballot.  The numbers however, are not in any of the candidates favor.


Democratic Presidential Primary Polling -- Nationwide (Remaining voters)
Senator Kamala Harris -- 24%
Senator Cory Booker -- 22%
Vice President Elizabeth Warren -- 22%
Senator Jason Kander -- 22%
Undecided -- 9%

Republican Presidential Primary Polling -- Nationwide (Remaining Voters)
Fmr. Governor Nikki Haley -- 30%
Mr. Donald Trump -- 26%
Fmr. Governor John Kasich -- 20%
Senator Marco Rubio -- 16%
Undecided -- 8%

Republican Presidential Primary Polling -- Florida
Senator Marco Rubio -- 32%
Fmr. Governor Nikki Haley -- 28%
Mr. Donald Trump -- 25%
Fmr. Governor John Kasich -- 10%
Undecided -- 5%


Super Saturday Contests:

Democrats Abroad Caucus:

Senator Kamala Harris -- 29.32% -- 5 Delegates
Vice President Elizabeth Warren -- 28.65% -- 5 Delegates
Senator Jason Kander -- 23.25% -- 4 Delegates
Senator Cory Booker -- 18.58% -- 3 Delegates

Kansas Democratic Caucus:

Senator Jason Kander -- 37.54% -- 20 Delegates
Vice President Elizabeth Warren -- 33.34% -- 17 Delegates
Senator Cory Booker -- 14.85% --  0 Delegates
Senator Kamala Harris -- 14.27 --  0 Delegates

Kansas Republican Caucus:

Fmr. Governor Nikki Haley -- 33.65% -- 17 Delegates
Mr. Donald Trump -- 30.12% -- 12 Delegates
Senator Marco Rubio -- 19.45% -- 6 Delegates
Fmr. Governor John Kasich -- 16.78% -- 5 Delegates

Louisiana Democratic Primary:

Senator Kamala Harris -- 31.15% -- 18 Delegates
Senator Cory Booker -- 29.78% -- 17 Delegates
Senator Jason Kander -- 20.00% -- 12 Delegates
Vice President Elizabeth Warren -- 19.07% -- 11 Delegates

Louisiana Republican Primary:

Fmr. Governor Nikki Haley -- 30.14% -- 22 Delegates
Mr. Donald Trump -- 26.85% -- 18 Delegates
Senator Marco Rubio -- 22.23% -- 11 Delegate
Fmr. Governor John Kasich -- 20.78% -- 13 Delegates

Nebraska Democratic Caucus:

Vice President Elizabeth Warren -- 33.31% -- 10 Delegates
Senator Jason Kander -- 30.25% -- 9 Delegates
Senator Cory Booker -- 18.65% -- 6 Delegates
Senator Kamala Harris -- 17.79% -- 5 Delegates

Kentucky Republican Primary:

Mr. Donald Trump -- 36.87% -- 17 Delegates
Fmr. Governor John Kasich -- 30.03% -- 14 Delegates
Fmr. Governor Nikki Haley -- 17.84% -- 8 Delegates
Senator Marco Rubio -- 15.26% -- 7 Delegates

Maine Democratic Caucus:

Vice President Elizabeth Warren -- 35.54% -- 12 Delegates
Senator Jason Kander -- 27.65% -- 10 Delegates
Senator Cory Booker -- 23.32% --  8 Delegates
Senator Kamala Harris -- 13.49% -- 0 Delegates

Maine Republican Caucus:

Mr. Donald Trump --  37.75% -- 9 Delegates
Fmr. Governor John Kasich -- 22.54% -- 5 Delegates
Fmr. Governor Nikki Haley -- 20.86% -- 5 Delegates
Senator Marco Rubio -- 18.85%  -- 4 Delegates

Wyoming Democratic Caucus:

Senator Jason Kander -- 31.12% -- 6 Delegates
Vice President Elizabeth Warren -- 29.96% -- 5 Delegates
Senator Kamala Harris -- 20.55% -- 4 Delegates
Senator Cory Booker -- 18.37% -- 3 Delegates

Wyoming Republican Convention:
Convention vote, with Mr. Donald Trump winning 18 Delegates, Fmr. Governor Nikki Haley winning 7 Delegates, and Senator Marco Rubio winning 4 Delegates

Current Delegate Totals (Democrats):
2,382 Needed for the nomination (Current percentage of needed delegates)
Sen. Kamala Harris -- 536 Pledged, 235 Unpledged, 771 Total (32.37%)
Vice President Elizabeth Warren -- 442 Pledged, 244 Unpledged, 686 Total (28.80%)
Sen. Cory Booker -- 284 Pledged, 222 Unpledged, 506 Total (21.24%)
Sen. Jason Kander -- 362 Pledged, 88 Unpledged, 450 Total (18.90%)
Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (withdrawn) -- 79 Pledged, 16 Unpledged, 95 Total
Sen. Maggie Hassan (withdrawn) -- 6 Pledged, 1 Unpledged, 7 Total
Remaining -- 2,342 Pledged, 91 Unpledged, 2,433 Total

Current Delegate Totals (Republicans)
1,237 Needed for the Nomination
Fmr. Gov. Nikki Haley -- 370 Delegates (29.91%)
Mr. Donald Trump -- 322 Delegates (26.83%)
Fmr. Gov. John Kasich -- 228 Delegates (18.43%)
Sen. Marco Rubio -- 165 Delegates (13.34%)
Sen. Ben Sasse (withdrawn) -- 67 Delegates
Sen. Ted Cruz (withdrawn) -- 8 Delegates
Gov. Charlie Baker (withdrawn) -- 6 Delegates
Remaining -- 1,335 Delegates

[Edgeofnight]

I also had problems with pictures in my first TL, but just using links from google with the Atlas img code works very well. If I want to resize etc, I just save the pictures, open them in Gimp (photoshop for poor people), resize them to a width of 650 and see what's their height in that size, and enter the width and height to the code: Image Link

Republicans: 14 seats called.
Democrats: 8 seats called.

[Edgeofnight]

Special: 2018 Gubernatorial Elections (Part 2/4)

Hawaii:
In Hawaii, one of the nation’s most Democratic states, incumbent Governor David Ige sought a second term in office. Due to low approvals, he faced heavy opposition in the primary from U.S. Rep Colleen Hanabusa, who ultimately defeated Ige in the primary. She faced Andria Tupola, a state representative, in the General Election. Hanabusa easily won, 65% to 33%.

Result: D Hold (R+2)

Idaho:
In Idaho, Incumbent Governor Butch Otter declined to seek another term. The republican primary to replace him was fought mostly between Congressman Raul Labrador and Lt. Gov. Brad Little, the former of which emerged victorious. The democrats nominated their 2014 nominee, A.J. Balukoff, who was easily defeated on election day, 58% to 37%

Result: R Hold (R+2)

Illinois:
In Illinois, incumbent Governor Bruce Rauner sought a second term in office. He faced opposition from Conservatives within his own party, who rallied around State Representative Jeanne Ives. Rauner narrowly defeated Ives in the primary, 51% to 48%. On the Democratic side, State Senator Daniel Biss upset Businessmen J.B. Pritzker and Chris Kennedy, winning the primary 33%-32%-25%. After a bitter and narrow general election campaign, the race was considered a tossup on election day. In the end, Senator Biss narrowly won the race, 49% to 49%.

Result: D Gain (R+1)

Iowa:
In Iowa, incumbent Governor Terry Branstad was eligible to seek another term, but declined to do so. The Republican nomination was won by his second in command, Kim Reynolds. The Democratic side had a more cluttered primary, from which businessman Fred Hubbell emerged victorious. The race was considered Likely R on election day, and Reynolds won handedly, 54% to 44%.

Result: R Hold (R+1)

Kansas:
In Kansas, incumbent Governor Sam Brownback was term limited, and could not seek another term in office. On election day, Brownback was rated the least popular governor in the Country. The Democrats nominated state Senator Laura Kelly. Independent Greg Orman also ran. Republicans picked State Secretary of State Kris Kobach as their nominee. The race was considered only lean R on election day, despite Kansas’ natural republican lean. Democrats and Republicans invested heavily in the race, and in the end, it was the eighth most expensive election of the cycle. Kobach ultimately won over Kelly and Orman, 46% - 31% - 23%.

Result: R Hold (R+1)

Maine:
In Maine, incumbent Governor Paul LePage could not seek a third term in office. Legal troubles around the use of ranked choice voting led to legislators to suspend its use until 2021. Despite the  a “People’s veto” referendum, the law held, meaning Ranked Choice voting was only used in the primaries, not the general election. Mary Mayhew emerged victorious in the Republican primary, and faced Democrat Betsy Sweet and independent Terry Hayes in the general election. Ultimately, despite LePage’s poor approval rating, Mayhew won the general election, 44% to Sweet’s 28% and Hayes’ 20%.

Result:R Hold (R+1)

Maryland:
In Maryland, incumbent Governor Larry Hogan sought re-election to a second term in office. Consistently rated one of the most popular governors in the country, Hogan was considered favored to win the election. Despite this, he faced heavy opposition from former NAACP president Ben Jealous in the general election. Still, the race was considered Likely R on election day, and Hogan emerged victorious, 54% to 45%.

Result:R Hold (R+1)

Massachusetts:
In Massachusetts, incumbent Governor Charlie Baker sought a second term in office. He beat back a primary challenger from Scott Livey, and faced Democrat Bob Massie in the General Election. Baker was considered the nation’s most popular governor on election day, and the race was rated Safe R. He won easily, with 60% of the vote to Massie’s 39%.

Result: R Hold (R+1)

Michigan:
In Michigan, incumbent Governor Rick Snyder was term limited, and could not seek another term in office. State Attorney General Bill Schuette won the republican primary to replace Snyder. On the democratic side, former State Senate Minority Leader Gretchen Whitmer won the primary easily after Abdul El Sayed was disqualified due to residency laws. The general election was considered a toss up, and ultimately, Whitmer prevailed,and won the election 50% to Schuette’s 49%.

Result: D gain

Republicans: 18 Seats Called
Democrats: 11 seats called.

[Edgeofnight]

Special: 2018 Gubernatorial Elections (Part 3/4)

Minnesota:
In Minnesota, incumbent Governor Mark Dayton declined to seek a third term in office. The democratic primary to succeed him was cluttered, but ultimately U.S. Rep Tim Walz prevailed. The National Republican Party drafted former Governor Tim Pawlenty after the other Republicans struggled with fundraising. Clearing the field, Pawlenty easily won the Republican primary, and the race was considered a toss up on election day. In the end, Pawlenty narrowly prevailed, 48% to 47%.

Result: R Gain (R+1)

Nebraska:
In Nebraska, incumbent Governor Pete Ricketts sought another term. Despite several candidates considering a primary challenger to Ricketts, he faced none. In the general election, the Democrats did not run a candidate, instead supporting Independent State Senator Bob Krist. The election was rated as Likely R, and Rickets won handedly on election day, defeating Krist 57% to 41%

Result: R Hold (R+1)

Nevada:
In Nevada, popular Governor Brian Sandoval was term limited, and could not seek another term in office. Adam Laxalt won the republican primary to replace Sandoval. On the Democratic side, Steve Sisolak emerged as the leader of the pack on the democratic side, and won his parties nomination. The race was considered Likely R, and Laxalt won by a less than expected margin, 52% to 46%.

Result: R Hold (R+1)

New Hampshire:
In New Hampshire, incumbent Governor Chris Sununu sought a second term in office. He faced no opposition in his primary. In the general election, Sununu faced Colin Van Ostern in a rematch of the 2016 race. Sununu defeated Ostern again, 54% to 44%. The race was rated Lean R.

Result: R Hold (R+1)

New Mexico:
In New Mexico, incumbent Governor Susana Martinez was term limited, and could not seek another term. U.S. Representative Steve Pearce won the Republican nomination,  and faced off against fellow Representative Michelle Lujan Grisham. Due to Martinez’s low popularity, and the state’s natural democratic lean, the race was considered Lean D. Grisham pulled off a narrow win, with 52% of the vote to Pearce’s 48%.

Result: D Gain

New York:
Incumbent Governor Andrew Cuomo sought a third term in office. Despite talks of a potential primary challenger, Cuomo won re-nomination without serious opposition. He faced Minority leader Brian Kolb in the general election. The race was rated Likely D, and Cuomo prevailed on election night with 56% of the vote to Kolb’s 42%.

Result: D Hold

Ohio:
Incumbent Governor and former Presidential Candidate John Kasich was term limited, and could not seek another term in office. State Attorney General and former Senator Mike DeWine faced no opposition in the Republican primary, after his opponents all withdrew for other races, Mary Taylor, withdrew to run for the U.S. House, Jon Husted became DeWine’s running mate, and Renacci ran for the U.S. Senate. Democrats faced a much more crowded primary, from which Former Congresswoman Betty Sutton emerged victorious. The race remained close throughout the entire contest, and was rated toss up until election day. On election day, DeWine Narrowly prevailed in the closest race of the election cycle, with both candidates winning roughly 49% of the vote. After a recount, DeWine was declared the winner by a margin of 2,000 votes. It was the most expensive election of the cycle.

Result: R Hold

Oklahoma:
In Oklahoma, incumbent Governor Mary Fallin could not seek a third term due to term limits. Oklahoma City Mayor Mick Cornett narrowly defeated Lamb in the Republican primary. He faced Former State Attorney General Drew Edmondson. Despite Fallin’s unpopularity, and Edmondson’s name recognition, the state’s natural republican lean made the race Likely R. Cornett defeated Edmondson 55% to 43%

Result: R Hold

Oregon:
In Oregon, incumbent Governor Kate Brown sought reelection to a full term in office, after winning the governorship in the 2016 Special election. She faced no primary opposition, and went on to face State Rep. Knute Buehler. Despite the state showing some friendliness to Republicans down ballot, Brown was considered favored to win re-election, due to her opponents lack of name recognition. The race was rated likely D, and on election day Brown won a full term, 56% to 43%.

Result: D Hold

[Edgeofnight]

Wow, not a good midterm for dems.

Thus far, Dems have made a net gain of +1 seat, granted its not over yet.

[Edgeofnight]

Special: 2018 Gubernatorial Elections (Part 4/4)

Pennsylvania:
In Pennsylvania, incumbent Governor Tom Wolf sought a second term in office. With a rocky first term, Republicans targeted the race heavily, and the party rallied behind State Senator Scott Wagner after he defeated Paul Mango and State House Speaker Mike Turzai in the primary. Wolf was renominated unopposed. The race was considered a tossup on election day, but in the end, Wagner defeated Wolf, 49% - 48%. This was the third most expensive race of the cycle.

Result: R Gain (R+1)

Rhode Island:
Incumbent Governor Gina Raimondo sought a second term in office. She faced a primary challenger from State Attorney General Peter Kilmartin. Despite a rocky first term, she beat back Kilmartin, 60%-40%. The Republicans rallied around their 2014 nominee, Allan Fung. Due to her low approval ratings, Raimondo was considered a ripe target for Republicans. By election day, the race was rated as a Tossup. She was eventually defeated, carrying 49% of the vote to Fung’s 50%. The moderate party did not nominate any candidates.

Result: R Gain (R+2)

South Carolina:
In South Carolina, incumbent Governor Nikki Haley was term limited, and could not seek another term in office. Fmr. U.S. Senator Jim DeMint won a crowded primary to replace her. The Democrats nominated State Representative James Smith. Despite personal support from President Biden, DeMint easily defeated Smith, 56% to 41%. The race was considered Safe R.

Result:R Hold (R+2)

South Dakota:
In South Dakota, Incumbent Governor Dennis Daugaard was term limited, and could not seek another term in office. The two main republicans who ran to replace him where Congresswoman Kristi Noem and State Attorney General Marty Jackley. Noem ultimately prevailed, narrowly defeating Jackley. In the general election, she faced Democrat Billie Sutton and Independent Mike Huether. Noem prevailed easily, winning 67% of the vote to Suttons 20% and Huether’s 11%.

Result: R Hold (R+2)

Tennessee:
In Tennessee, popular incumbent Bill Haslam was term limited, and could not seek another term in office. The Republican primary was fought between State House Speaker Beth Harwell, and Congresswoman Diane Black, from which the latter emerged victorious. Democrats nominated Mayor of Nashville Karl Dean. Black was considered favored going into the election, and won easily, 59% to 39%. The race was considered Safe to Likely R

Result: R Hold (R+2)

Texas:
In Texas, Governor Greg Abbott sought re-election to a second term in office. He faced no opposition in the Republican Primary. In the general election, he faced Dallas County Sheriff Lupe Valdez. Abbott, considered extremely popular, was considered Safe in his re-election bid. On election day, he won 66% to 30%.

Result: R Hold (R+2)

Vermont:
In Vermont, incumbent Governor Phil Scott sought re-election to another term. He faced no opposition in the primary. In the General election, he faced Sue Minter, his 2016 opponent. Scott, with high approval ratings, was considered Favored to win re-election, and on election day he won 53% to 46%.

Result: R Hold (R+2)

Wisconsin:
In Wisconsin, incumbent Governor Scott Walker, sought reelection to a third full term in office. Like most of his republican colleagues, he faced no serious opposition in the primary. The crowded Democratic primary attracted 18 candidates, from which, State Superintendent Tony Evers emerged victorious. Walker beat back Evers, 52% to 48%. The race was considered a tossup on election day.

Result: R Hold (R+2)

Wyoming:
In Wyoming, Governor Matt Mead was term limited. The Republican primary to replace him was crowded, but State Superintendent Jillian Ann McGarvin Balow emerged from the pack. She faced former State Senate Minority Leader Mary Thorne in the general election, and won easily, 60% to 39%.

Result: R Hold (R+2)



Result Summary:
R Gains: AK, CT, MN, RI, and PA
D Gains: IL, MI, NM

Following the 2018 Midterms, Democrats hold fourteen Governorships, to the Republican’s 36. This is the weakest the party has been since Reconstruction.

[Edgeofnight]

Part 17: March, 2020
Mid March Contests:
Michigan:

Senator Jason Kander -- 36.54% -- 55 Delegates
Vice President Elizabeth Warren -- 32.25% -- 46 Delegates
Senator Cory Booker -- 20.11% -- 29 Delegates
Senator Kamala Harris -- 11.10% -- 0 Delegates

Mississippi:

Senator Cory Booker -- 35.51% -- 14 Delegates
Senator Kamala Harris -- 33.32% -- 14 Delegates
Senator Jason Kander -- 19.67% -- 8 Delegates
Vice President Elizabeth Warren -- 11.50% -- 0 Delegates

Northern Marianas:

Vice President Elizabeth Warren -- 33.33% -- 3 Delegates
Senator Jason Kander -- 29.16% -- 2 Delegates
Senator Cory Booker -- 25.12% -- 1 Delegate
Senator Kamala Harris -- 12.39% -- 0 Delegates

Super Tuesday II:
Florida:

Senator Kamala Harris -- 30.15% -- 65 Delegates
Senator Jason Kander -- 27.75% -- 60 Delegates
Vice President Elizabeth Warren -- 21.19% -- 46 Delegates
Senator Cory Booker -- 20.91% -- 45 Delegates

Illinois:

Vice President Elizabeth Warren -- 31.12% -- 49 Delegates
Senator Jason Kander -- 29.62% -- 46 delegates
Senator Cory Booker -- 20.92% -- 33 Delegates
Senator Kamala Harris -- 18.34% -- 28 Delegates

Missouri:

Senator Jason Kander -- 65.31% -- 69 Delegates
Senator Kamala Harris -- 13.32% -- 0 Delegates
Senator Cory Booker -- 11.21% -- 0 Delegates
Vice President Elizabeth Warren -- 10.16% -- 0 Delegates

North Carolina:

Senator Cory Booker -- 30.43% -- 34 Delegates
Senator Kamala Harris -- 26.86% -- 30 Delegates
Vice President Elizabeth Warren -- 22.23% - 24 Delegates
Senator Jason Kander -- 20.48% -- 22 Delegates

Ohio:

Vice President Elizabeth Warren -- 32.24% -- 44 Delegates
Senator Jason Kander -- 27.57% -- 38 Delegates
Senator Kamala Harris -- 22.25% -- 31 Delegates
Senator Cory Booker -- 17.94% -- 24 Delegates

Alaska:

Vice President Elizabeth Warren -- 32.25% -- 5 Delegates
Senator Cory Booker -- 28.42% -- 4 Delegates
Senator Jason Kander -- 20.18% -- 3 Delegates
Senator Kamala Harris -- 19.15% -- 2 Delegates

Hawaii:

Vice President Elizabeth Warren -- 39.01% -- 9 Delegates
Senator Kamala Harris -- 26.62% -- 6 Delegates
Senator Jason Kander -- 18.51% -- 4 Delegates
Senator Cory Booker -- 15.86% -- 3 Delegates

Late March Contests:
Idaho:

Senator Jason Kander -- 34.41% -- 7 Delegates
Vice President Elizabeth Warren -- 30.11% -- 6 Delegates
Senator Cory Booker -- 18.65% -- 4 Delegates
Senator Kamala Harris -- 16.83% -- 3 Delegates

Utah:

Senator Jason Kander -- 32.25% -- 9 Delegates
Vice President Elizabeth Warren -- 27.34% -- 8 Delegates
Senator Cory Booker -- 21.14% -- 6 Delegates
Senator Kamala Harris -- 19.72% -- 5 Delegates

Washington:

Vice President Elizabeth Warren -- 31.15% -- 27 Delegates
Senator Jason Kander -- 26.53% -- 23 Delegates
Senator Kamala Harris -- 23.35% -- 20 Delegates
Senator Cory Booker -- 18.97% -- 17 Delegates

Current Delegate Totals (Democrats):
2,382 Needed for the nomination
Sen. Kamala Harris -- 740 Pledged, 230 Unpledged, 970 Total (40.72%)
Vice President Elizabeth Warren -- 709 Pledged, 254 Unpledged, 963 Total (40.42%)
Sen. Jason Kander -- 707 Pledged, 97 Unpledged, 804 Total (33.75%)
Sen. Cory Booker -- 498 Pledged, 225 Unpledged, 723 Total (30.35%)
Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (withdrawn) -- 79 Pledged, 10 Unpledged, 95 Total
Sen. Maggie Hassan (withdrawn) -- 6 Pledged, 1 Unpledged, 7 Total
Remaining -- 1,312 Pledged, 81 Unpledged, 1,393 Total

Senator Cory Booker: “I’m withdrawing from the race for President”

In a surprise announcement, New Jersey Senator Cory Booker announced that he would be suspending his campaign for president, and would be seeking re-election to the United States Senate. His decision to withdraw comes two days before the filing deadline to run. In his withdrawal speech, Booker promised to remain an active voice in the party, and stated that, after lengthy consideration, he believes that the best way to influence the platform of the party would be to withdraw. In his speech, he endorsed Vice President Elizabeth Warren, stating that after talking with each of the candidates, he believes the Vice President to best embody what the party stands for. He did, however, speak praise to each of the other candidates, and stated that he was confident whoever the party nominated would be a fine candidate. Booker’s withdrawal dwindles the field of candidates to three.

[Edgeofnight]

Can you give us a description of the Biden Administration?

I will, but not until later in the timeline. As a brief teaser, The Democrats hold the senate when Biden takes office, but Republicans retain their house majority, handicapping the Biden administration.

[Edgeofnight]

Part 17:March 2020 (2/2)
Mid March Contests
Hawaii:

Fmr. Governor John Kasich -- 33.27% -- 6 Delegates
Senator Marco Rubio -- 29.62% -- 6 Delegates
Mr. Donald Trump -- 19.88% -- 4 Delegates
Fmr. Governor Nikki Haley -- 17.23% -- 3 Delegates

Alaska:

Mr. Donald Trump -- 36.62% -- 10 Delegates
Senator Marco Rubio -- 27.75% -- 8 Delegates
Fmr. Governor Nikki Haley -- 22.21% -- 6 Delegates
Fmr. Governor John Kasich -- 13.42% -- 4 Delegates

Idaho:

Fmr. Governor Nikki Haley -- 31.15% -- 12 Delegates
Mr. Donald Trump -- 28.86% -- 12 Delegates
Senator Marco Rubio -- 20.08% -- 8 Delegates
Fmr. Governor John Kasich -- 19.95% -- 0 Delegates

Michigan:

Fmr. Governor John Kasich -- 37.23% -- 25 Delegates
Mr. Donald Trump -- 30.62% -- 21 Delegates
Fmr. Governor Nikki Haley -- 18.86% -- 13 Delegates
Senator Marco Rubio -- 13.29% -- 0 Delegates

Mississippi:

Fmr. Governor Nikki Haley -- 30.27% -- 15 Delegates 
Mr. Donald Trump -- 28.17% -- 11 Delegates
Senator Marco Rubio -- 25.32% -- 10 Delegates
Fmr. Governor John Kasich -- 16.24% -- 5 Delegates

Washington DC:

Fmr. Governor Nikki Haley -- 31.62% -- 7 Delegates
Senator Marco Rubio -- 29.96% -- 6 Delegates
Fmr. Governor John Kasich -- 27.75% -- 6 Delegates
Mr. Donald Trump -- 10.67% -- 0 Delegates

Super Tuesday II:
Florida:

Fmr. Governor Nikki Haley -- 30.86% -- 99 Delegates
Senator Marco Rubio -- 30.61% -- 0 Delegates
Mr. Donald Trump -- 20.11% -- 0 Delegates
Fmr. Governor John Kasich -- 18.42% -- 0 Delegates

Illinois:

Fmr. Governor John Kasich -- 33.45% -- 35 Delegates
Mr. Donald Trump -- 26.56% -- 15 Delegates
Fmr. Governor Nikki Haley -- 22.45% -- 13 Delegates
Senator Marco Rubio -- 17.54% -- 6 Delegates

Missouri

Fmr. Governor Nikki Haley -- 31.16% -- 32 Delegates
Mr. Donald Trump -- 24.46% -- 10 Delegates
Fmr. Governor John Kasich -- 22.58% -- 5 Delegates
Senator Marco Rubio -- 21.80% -- 5 Delegates

Northern Marianas:

Mr. Donald Trump -- 35.11% -- 9 Delegates
Senator Marco Rubio -- 31.14% -- 0 Delegates
Fmr. Governor Nikki Haley -- 17.74% -- 0 Delegates
Fmr. Governor John Kasich -- 16.01% --  0 Delegates

North Carolina:

Fmr. Governor Nikki Haley -- 36.46% -- 26 Delegates
Mr. Donald Trump -- 28.82% -- 21 Delegates
Senator Marco Rubio -- 18.54% -- 13 Delegates
Fmr. Governor John Kasich -- 16.38% -- 12 Delegates

Wisconsin:

Fmr. Governor Nikki Haley -- 36.59% -- 27 Delegates
Mr. Donald Trump -- 28.33% -- 12 Delegates
Fmr. Governor John Kasich -- 20.15% -- 3 Delegates
Senator Marco Rubio -- 14.93% -- 0 Delegates

Rubio, Humiliated Again
For the second time in his life, Rubio was rejected by his home state, which narrowly favored Nikki Haley over their own senator. As expected, Rubio suspended his campaign, thanking his supporters and encouraging them to continue their involvement in politics. A few days after his withdrawal, Senator Rubio endorsed the Haley Campaign, and publicly encouraged his delegates to back her.

Late March Contests:
Arizona:

Fmr. Governor Nikki Haley -- 40.75% -- 58 Delegates
Mr. Donald Trump -- 30.35% -- 0 Delegates
Fmr. Governor John Kasich -- 28.90% -- 0 Delegates

Utah:

Fmr. Governor Nikki Haley -- 38.27% -- 16 Delegates
Fmr. Governor John Kasich -- 35.65% -- 15 Delegates
Mr. Donald Trump -- 26.08% -- 9 Delegates

Current Delegate Totals (Republicans)
1,237 Needed for the Nomination
Fmr. Gov. Nikki Haley -- 695 Delegates (56.18%)
Mr. Donald Trump -- 456 Delegates (36.86%)
Fmr. Gov. John Kasich -- 347 Delegates (28.05%)
Sen. Marco Rubio (withdrawn) -- 226 Delegates
Sen. Ben Sasse (withdrawn) -- 67 Delegates
Sen. Ted Cruz (withdrawn) -- 8 Delegates
Gov. Charlie Baker (withdrawn) -- 6 Delegates
Remaining -- 696 Delegates



[Edgeofnight]

Part 18: Beginning of the End
Establishment Republicans to Kasich: Get out of the race.
Fmr. Governor John Kasich has found himself short on friends during the last few weeks of the primary campaign. Most of his supporters in congress have jumped ship to the Haley campaign, who seems fated to win the nomination. Even Ohio Senator Rob Portman, who’s office insists he still supports the Buckeye Governor, stated on CNN “I think it would be best if he dropped out.” His campaign finances have also been running thin. Donors who were supporting him to deny Trump the nomination have given up the goat. Even his former Lieutenant Governor, Congresswoman Mary Taylor (R-OH) has noted that Kasich and Trump are both mathematically eliminated from the nomination. RNC chairwoman Ronna Romney McDaniel stopped short of calling Nikki Haley the presumptive nominee, but noted that its “highly likely” she will be nominated on the first ballot, while also acknowledging that she may not have enough delegates pledged to her to win before the convention.
 
All Eyes on Pence:
As the primary season winds down, the silence of one Senator Mike Pence has become much more noticeable. Trump’s running mate in 2016, Pence passed on his own presidential bid, but pledged to make his voice heard. So far, he’s remained mute on who he would be supporting, even after his senate colleague endorsed Haley. He has strong ties to the Trump campaign, but also worked with Governor Kasich when they served as Governors of neighboring states. However, rumors have swirled around Capitol Hill that Pence is considering backing Haley, concerned about pinning himself to another sinking ship.

General Election Polling:

Warren vs Haley
Warren: 42%
Haley: 45%
Other:4%
Undecided: 9%

Warren vs Trump
Warren: 44%
Trump: 41%
Other: 7%
Undecided: 8%

Warren vs Kasich
Warren: 40%
Kasich: 44%
Other: 4%
Undecided: 12%

Harris vs Haley
Harris: 43%
Haley: 44%
Other: 3%
Undecided:10%

Harris vs Trump
Harris:46%
Trump: 39%
Other:6%
Undecided: 9%

Harris vs Kasich
Harris: 42%
Kasich: 45%
Other:6%
Undecided: 7%

Kander vs Haley
Kander: 45%
Haley: 44%
Other: 4%
Undecided:7%

Kander vs Trump
Kander: 47%
Trump:40%
Other: 3%
Undecided: 10%

Kander vs Kasich
Kander: 44%
Kasich: 45%
Other:3%
Undecided:8%

Generic Democrat vs Generic Republican:
Democrat: 43%
Republican: 44%
Other:5%
Undecided: 8%

Polling Map: Average Dem vs Average Republican

Convention Locations and Dates

Libertarian National Convention: June 8th - June 11th in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania
Democratic National Convention: June 29th - July 2nd in South Bend, Indiana
Republican National Convention: July 13th - July 16th in San Diego, California
Constitution National Convention: July 20th - July 23rd in Cheyenne, Wyoming.
Green National Convention: August 3rd - August 6th in Boston, Massachusetts


April Democratic Contests:

Wisconsin:

Senator Jason Kander -- 36.56% -- 31 Delegates
Vice President Elizabeth Warren -- 35.56% -- 31 Delegates
Senator Kamala Harris -- 27.88% -- 20 Delegates

New York:

Senator Kamala Harris -- 36.41% -- 90 Delegates
Vice President Elizabeth Warren -- 33.12% -- 82 Delegates
Senator Jason Kander -- 30.47% -- 75 Delegates

Connecticut:

Vice President Elizabeth Warren -- 38.62% -- 21 Delegates
Senator Kamala Harris -- 31.46% -- 17 Delegates
Senator Jason Kander -- 29.92% -- 17 Delegates

Delaware:

Vice President Elizabeth Warren -- 39.96% -- 8 Delegates
Senator Jason Kander -- 36.75% -- 8 Delegates
Senator Kamala Harris -- 23.29% -- 5 Delegates

Maryland:

Senator Kamala Harris -- 39.72% -- 38 Delegates
Vice President Elizabeth Warren -- 32.26% -- 31 Delegates
Senator Jason Kander -- 28.02% -- 26 Delegates

Pennsylvania:

Vice President Elizabeth Warren -- 35.56% -- 67 Delegates
Senator Jason Kander -- 33.16% -- 63 Delegates
Senator Kamala Harris -- 31.28% -- 59 Delegates

Rhode Island:

Vice President Elizabeth Warren -- 41.15% -- 10 Delegates
Senator Jason Kander -- 30.31% -- 7 Delegates
Senator Kamala Harris -- 28.54% -- 7 Delegates

Current Delegate Totals (Democrats):
2,382 Needed for the nomination

Vice President Elizabeth Warren -- 959 Pledged, 348 Unpledged, 1,307 Total (54.86%)
Sen. Kamala Harris -- 976 Pledged, 267 Unpledged, 1,243 Total (52.18%)
Sen. Jason Kander -- 934 Pledged, 206 Unpledged, 1,140 Total (47.77%)
Sen. Cory Booker (withdrawn) -- 498 Pledged, 12 Unpledged, 510 Total
Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (withdrawn) -- 79 Pledged, 8 Unpledged, 89 Total
Sen. Maggie Hassan (withdrawn) -- 6 Pledged, 1 Unpledged, 7 Total
Remaining -- 599 Pledged, 56 Unpledged, 655 Total

April Republican Contests:

North Dakota:
Delegates selected at an unbound convention backed Donald Trump and Nikki Haley, with 18 Delegates and 10 Delegates respectively

New York:

Mr. Donald Trump -- 37.71% -- 36 Delegates
Fmr. Governor John Kasich -- 32.35% -- 31 Delegates
Fmr. Governor Nikki Haley -- 29.94% -- 28 Delegates

Connecticut:

Fmr. Governor John Kasich -- 36.95% -- 10 Delegates
Mr. Donald Trump -- 32.93% -- 9 Delegates
Fmr. Governor Nikki Haley -- 30.12% -- 8 Delegates

Delaware:

Fmr. Governor John Kasich -- 37.59% --16 Delegates
Mr. Donald Trump -- 32.23% -- 0 Delegates
Fmr. Governor Nikki Haley -- 30.18% -- 0 Delegates

Maryland:

Fmr. Governor Nikki Haley -- 35.52% -- 23 Delegates
Mr. Donald Trump -- 32.33% -- 6 Delegates
Fmr. Governor John Kasich -- 32.15% -- 6 Delegates

Pennsylvania:

Fmr. Governor Nikki Haley -- 36.97% -- 45 Delegates
Mr. Donald Trump -- 32.26% -- 15 Delegates
Fmr. Governor John Kasich -- 30.77% --  11 Delegates

Rhode Island:

Fmr. Governor John Kasich -- 36.33% -- 7 Delegates
Mr. Donald Trump -- 33.21% -- 6 Delegates
Fmr. Governor Nikki Haley - 31.46% -- 6 Delegates

Current Delegate Totals (Republicans)
1,237 Needed for the Nomination
Fmr. Gov. Nikki Haley -- 792 Delegates (64.02%)
Mr. Donald Trump -- 540 Delegates (43.65%)
Fmr. Gov. John Kasich -- 422 Delegates (34.11%)
Sen. Marco Rubio (withdrawn) -- 226 Delegates
Sen. Ben Sasse (withdrawn) -- 67 Delegates
Sen. Ted Cruz (withdrawn) -- 8 Delegates
Gov. Charlie Baker (withdrawn) -- 6 Delegates
Remaining -- 440 Delegates

BREAKING:Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard will seek Democratic Nomination at Convention.



The Hawaii congresswoman and short lived presidential candidate announced that she would re-enter the race for President at the Democratic National Convention by seeking the support of unpledged delegates and Super Delegates. She is the first candidate to announce that she will seek the nomination through the convention, which will likely go to multiple ballots.

[Edgeofnight]

Next part is all written and maps made and such, it just needs to be formatted, which will be done tomorrow. Once I get through the conventions, I'm gonna work on replacing the images that went down when HostthenPost died. If anyone wants a particular infobox, either from the 2018 gubernatorial elections, or the primaries, let me know.

[Edgeofnight]

Part 19: The Final Countdown
Breaking: Senator Pence Endorses Haley days before critical Indiana Primary.
In the days leading up to the Indiana primary, the state’s popular Junior senator has backed frontrunner Nikki Haley over his former running mate Donald Trump. Trump responded over twitter, writing “Backstabbing Pence is an establishment Hack. He cost us 2016! The people of Indiana will vote him out!.”


May Democratic Contests:

Indiana:

Senator Jason Kander -- 37.23% -- 31 Delegates
Vice President Elizabeth Warren -- 35.15% -- 29 Delegates
Senator Kamala Harris -- 27.62% -- 23 Delegates

Guam:

Vice President Elizabeth Warren -- 37.73% -- 3 Delegates
Senator Jason Kander -- 32.02% -- 2 Delegates
Senator Kamala Harris -- 30.35% -- 2 Delegates

West Virginia:

Vice President Elizabeth Warren -- 35.56% -- 10 Delegates
Senator Jason Kander -- 34.92% -- 10 Delegates
Senator Kamala Harris -- 29.52% -- 9 Delegates

Kentucky:

Senator Jason Kander -- 36.26% -- 20 Delegates
Vice President Elizabeth Warren -- 34.41% -- 19 Delegates
Senator Kamala Harris -- 29.33% -- 16 Delegates

Oregon:

Senator Kamala Harris -- 35.73% -- 22 Delegates
Vice President Elizabeth Warren -- 34.22% -- 21 Delegates
Senator Jason Kander -- 30.05% -- 18 Delegates

June Democratic Contests:

Virgin Islands:

Vice President Elizabeth Warren -- 37.87% -- 3 Delegates
Senator Kamala Harris -- 33.21% -- 2 Delegates
Senator Jason Kander -- 28.92% -- 2 Delegates

Puerto Rico:

Vice President Elizabeth Warren -- 36.61% -- 22 Delegates
Senator Jason Kander -- 34.42% -- 21 Delegates
Senator Kamala Harris -- 28.97% -- 17 Delegates

Montana:

Vice President Elizabeth Warren -- 38.80% -- 9 Delegates
Senator Jason Kander -- 31.15% -- 6 Delegates
Senator Kamala Harris -- 30.05% -- 6 Delegates

New Jersey:

Senator Kamala Harris -- 36.31% -- 46 Delegates
Vice President Elizabeth Warren -- 34.41% -- 43 Delegates
Senator Jason Kander -- 29.28% -- 37 Delegates

New Mexico:

Senator Kamala Harris -- 37.20% -- 13 Delegates
Senator Jason Kander -- 31.86% -- 11 Delegates
Vice President Elizabeth Warren -- 30.94% -- 10 Delegates

North Dakota:

Vice President Elizabeth Warren -- 36.69% -- 7 Delegates
Senator Jason Kander -- 33.31% -- 6 Delegates
Senator Kamala Harris -- 30.00% -- 5 Delegates

South Dakota:

Vice President Elizabeth Warren -- 35.72% -- 7 Delegates
Senator Jason Kander -- 33.26% -- 7 Delegates
Senator Kamala Harris -- 31.02% -- 6 Delegates

DC:

Senator Kamala Harris -- 38.86% -- 8 Delegates
Vice President Elizabeth Warren -- 32.26% -- 6 Delegates
Senator Jason Kander -- 28.88% -- 6 Delegates

Final Delegate counts before Convention:
Current Delegate Totals (Democrats):
2,382 Needed for the nomination
Vice President Elizabeth Warren -- 1,145 Pledged, 353 Unpledged, 1,498 Total
Sen. Kamala Harris -- 1,151 Pledged, 274 Unpledged, 1,425 Total
Sen. Jason Kander -- 1,114 Pledged, 221 Unpledged, 1,135 Total
Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard -- 0 Pledged, 12 Unpledged, 12 Total
Sen. Cory Booker (withdrawn) -- 498 Pledged, 9 Unpledged, 507 Total
Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (withdrawn) -- 79 Pledged, 6 Unpledged, 85 Total
Sen. Maggie Hassan (withdrawn) -- 6 Pledged, 1 Unpledged, 7 Total

[Edgeofnight]

Thanks to everyone who has been reading, if you all could answer this quick poll for me, that'd be great:

https://www.strawpoll.me/15125070

Next part will be up tonight, but I think most of you know whats gonna happen.

[Edgeofnight]

Part 20: Cracked
Indiana Republican Primary, 2020

Fmr. Governor Nikki Haley -- 36.56%
Mr. Dolan Trump -- 33.32%
Fmr. Governor John Kasich -- 30.12%

Trump, Kasich withdraw. Haley is now the presumptive nominee.
Following her victory in the Indiana Republican, Nikki Haley’s two primary opponents dropped out of the race. Mr. Donald Trump suspended his campaign by initially launching an attack at the establishment of the party for “cheating” him out of the nomination. However, half way through his speech, he pivoted to attacking the Democrats, mostly Warren, Kander, and Harris. By the end of his speech, he offered a lukewarm endorsement to Governor Haley, but an endorsement nonetheless. Kasich withdrew the following day, saying that his path to victory had closed. He endorsed Governor Haley enthusiastically, and stated that the Republican party had made the right choice by rejecting Donald Trump. This triggered a public spat between the two. Trump responded by calling Kasich "dumb" in a tweet, and Kasich shot back on a CNN interview just two weeks later.   


Haley Campaign: VP shortlist has three names
The search for Nikki Haley’s running mate has been narrowed to three people.
Senator Joni Ernst of Iowa -- Another woman, she brings military experience and is popular in a critical swing state. Concerns over having two women on the ticket raises worries among Haley’s campaign staff.
Fmr. Governor John Kasich of Ohio -- The former Presidential candidate has high favorables among Democrats, Republicans, and Independents, and remains popular in his home state. Still, Haley seem reluctant to add one of her main primary challengers to the ticket. There is also the age concern, and whether Kasich would be able to seek his own term in 2028, if Haley where to win and also win re-election
Governor Chris Sununu of New Hampshire -- The young, popular Governor brings moderates to the ticket, while also not being too moderate to turn off conservatives nationwide. He also remains popular in a critical swing state. Still his relative lack of experience is cause for concern. It would also require Republicans to replace him on the 2020 ballot.

Polling Map: Haley vs Generic Dem

Fmr. Governor Nikki Haley -- 165 Safe, 17 Likely, 35 Lean, 47.6%

Generic Democrat --169 Safe, 28 Likely, 15 Lean, 44.2%

Tossup -- 125

Other -- 1.1%

Undecided -- 7.1%

[Edgeofnight]

Next up, the Democratic Convention!

Should be up tomorrow or Saturday.

[Edgeofnight]

Part 21: Democratic National Convention, 2020

Day One: “Where we came from”

For the first time in what seemed like forever, the Democrats went into the convention without a clear nominee. Warren, Harris, and Kander had competed in all of the primaries, and Gabbard was openly seeking the nomination through unpledged delegates.

Day one opened with DNC chairman Tom Perez formally opening the convention. What followed was a series of speeches and performers, with a central theme of understanding America’s roots. There was also a focus on the War in Iraq and the 2008 recession. In short, the first day of the convention was broadly focused on the time before Obama became president. The notable first day of speakers included Fmr. First Lady Michelle Obama, Senators Kate McGinty and Russ Feingold, Performer Katy Perry, and Fmr. Secretary Hillary Clinton. Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer gave the Party’s keynote address, discussing how much progress the Democratic Party has made in the past decade, as well as a personal meeting with a voter from Flint, MI, and how that impacted her. Her speech was well received, and considered the best of the night. 

Day Two: “Where We are Now”

The second day was when the fun began. Vice President Warren was nominated by Senator Amy Klobuchar (D-MN), seconded by Senator Jeff Merkley (D-OR) and Senator Sherrod Brown (D-OH). Senator Kander was nominated by Governor Allison Grimes (D-KY), seconded by Governor Steve Bullock (D-MT) and Congressman Tim Ryan (D-OH). Senator Harris was nominated by Congresswoman Terri Sewell (D-AL), Seconded by Congresswoman Jackie Speier (D-CA) and Senator Maggie Hassan (D-NH). The other speakers, mostly from the activist wing of the party, where all mostly overshadowed by the coming chaos. The exact count was unclear, as superdelegates changed their support, and delegates from withdrawn candidates changed teams, but it was sure that Warren would finish first, with Harris close behind, and Kander in a not-so-distant third.The first ballot, done in its typical grandiose fashion, finished mostly as expected around 7pm.

DNC, 2020, Ballot 1:
2,382 Needed for the nomination
Vice President Elizabeth Warren -- 1,500
Sen. Kamala Harris -- 1,438
Sen. Jason Kander -- 1,189
Sen. Cory Booker -- 456
Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand -- 64
Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard -- 33
Sen. Maggie Hassan --  4
Abstain -- 79 Delegates

The second ballot was expedited, taking 47 minutes:

DNC, 2020, Ballot 2:
2,382 Needed for the nomination
Vice President Elizabeth Warren -- 1,490
Sen. Kamala Harris -- 1,448
Sen. Jason Kander -- 1,067
Sen. Cory Booker -- 431
Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard -- 187
Fmr. Gov. Terry McAuliffe -- 63
Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand -- 50
Sen. Maggie Hassan --  4
Abstain -- 23

Gabbard had surged in the delegate count, mostly at the expense of Kander and withdrawn candidates. Warren had lost a few delegates, to be expected, but she held her ground and stayed in first. Harris crawled forward, lurching toward surpassing Warren. Fmr. Governor Terry McCauliffe was drafted as an attempt at a compromise candidate when he didn’t outright decline to be nominated. While there wasn’t much time for pundits to analyze the second ballot, one thing was clear: the party was heading away from unity, not towards it.

DNC 2020, Ballot 3:

2,382 Needed for the nomination
Vice President Elizabeth Warren -- 1,476
Sen. Kamala Harris -- 1,467
Sen. Jason Kander -- 980
Sen. Cory Booker -- 321
Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard -- 232
Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand -- 189
Fmr. Gov. Terry McAuliffe -- 72
Abstain -- 27

Warren and Kander continued to bleed delegates. Harris made another crawl forward, and seemed poised to pass Warren on the fourth ballot. McAuliffe didn’t do much, with the candidate neither actively campaigning for nor against his nomination. Gabbard continued to corral support among reluctant Kander and Warren delegates. In the brief time between the second and third ballots, Gillibrand expressed her interest to several NY delegates about being nominated, and she had a small surge in the balloting.

DNC 2020 Ballot 4:
2,382 Needed for the nomination
Sen. Kamala Harris -- 1,486
Vice President Elizabeth Warren -- 1,450
Sen. Jason Kander -- 970
Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard -- 300
Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand -- 245
Sen. Cory Booker -- 186
Fmr. Gov. Terry McAuliffe -- 106
Abstain -- 20

With the fourth ballot, Gillibrand and Gabbard both continued to jump up. The Kander campaign seemed to have mostly stopped the bleeding, losing only 10 delegates. Warren had finally falling to second place, with Harris now leading by 36 delegates. Booker’s oftenly repeated declinations caused many to finally give up on the draft movement for the New Jersey Senator.

DNC 2020, Ballot 5:

2,382 Needed for the nomination
Sen. Kamala Harris -- 1,490
Vice President Elizabeth Warren -- 1,434
Sen. Jason Kander -- 975
Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard -- 311
Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand -- 265
Sen. Cory Booker -- 170
Fmr. Gov. Terry McAuliffe -- 100
Abstain -- 18

Warren’s campaign seemed to continue bleeding delegates, although the Kander campaign was beginning to reverse this trend. Harris’s campaign, for all practical matters, seemed to stay at the same place. Gabbard and Gillibrand both made gains, but neither was going anywhere rapidly. McAuliffe continued having minimal impact on the balloting process, losing 6 delegates.

[Edgeofnight]

Part 21: Democratic National Convention, 2020 (Part 2)

DNC 2020, Ballot 6:
2,382 Needed for the nomination
Sen. Kamala Harris -- 1,491
Vice President Elizabeth Warren -- 1,440
Sen. Jason Kander -- 976
Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard -- 333
Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand -- 281
Sen. Cory Booker -- 117
Fmr. Gov. Terry McAuliffe -- 107
Abstain -- 18

More of the same in ballot 6. Warren stopped bleeding delegates, and Gabbard and Gillibrand continued to slowly climb. Despite winning the popular vote in the primary, Harris struggled to climb higher in the delegate count. However, the biggest shift would happen between Ballots 6 and 7. Perhaps realizing that it was impossible to win the nomination, Senator Jason Kander withdrew from the balloting, and threw his support behind Warren. His delegates where enough, the seventh ballot determined the nominee:

DNC 2020, Ballot 7:
2,382 Needed for the nomination
✔ Vice President Elizabeth Warren -- 2,400
Sen. Kamala Harris -- 1,491
Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard -- 338
Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand -- 291
Sen. Cory Booker -- 100
Fmr. Gov. Terry McAuliffe -- 99
Sen. Jason Kander -- 26
Gov. Gretchen Whitmer -- 1
Abstain -- 18

Following the nomination of Warren, Senator Amy Klobuchar delivered a strong speech to the convention, but following the shocking conclusion to the nomination process, her speech was mostly overlooked. Governor Gavin Newsom also spoke on the second night, enthusiastically backing Warren, and delivering the generic call for unity
Senator Bernie Sanders closed out the night, congratulating Vice President Warren, and attacking presumptive Republican Nominee Nikki Haley. His speech was considered the most notable of the day. All of the speeches of the day focused on the accomplishments of the Biden and Obama administrations, the massive increases in healthcare and employment, the relative increase in global stability. Basically all the generic democrat talking points.

The Warren campaign had already vetted a number of vp candidates, and announcing overnight before the third day was considered the best choice. Still, even after clinching the nomination, Warren was torn between Senators Sherrod Brown and Mark Warner. Her choices where between another staunch Senate liberal, or a more establishment moderate candidate. After consulting with both men, she had her pick:

Vice President Elizabeth Warren announces VP pick: Virginia Senator Mark Warner

Day Three: “Where we want to be”

By day three, the excitement had mostly calmed down. Not only was the nomination decided, but many in the party felt defeated. Warren was not the choice of most democrats, but the party was still stuck with her anyway. It wasn’t that Democrats didn’t like Warren, its just that in contrast to the charisma of her primary challengers, and their more youthful energy, she was less inspiring. There was also the issue of her Vice Presidential pick. Many wanted Kamala Harris, who placed second in the primaries and won the popular vote in the nominating contests. Many Kander supporters felt that he deserved the number two spot, since he helped Warren win the nomination. Many also applauded her for “leaving the primaries behind” and picking a neutral party. Still, her strong liberal record appealed to the Democratic base, and that would have to be enough for Democrats if they wanted to win.

Notable Speakers on the third day included South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigeg, Illinois Governor Dan Biss, Fmr. President Barack Obama, and Joe Kennedy. The party was seeming to rally. The three speakers all gave positively received speeches, and Democrats seemed to be heading towards something resembling unity. Senator Warner was nominated by Acclamation, despite some reluctance from more liberal delegates.

Day Four: “How we get there.”

The fourth day carried a record of mixed emotion. This wasn’t helped by the fact that most notable speakers where former Presidential candidates. Cuomo, De Blasio, Gillibrand, Booker, Harris, and Kander, all laid out their visions for America’s future. One NBC analyst called it “The first day of the 2024 election." Each speaker endorsed Warren, and pledged to help her and other democrats to win nationwide. Still, that wasn’t enough to stop the image that each candidate was simply gaming their chances at the next cycle.

President Biden also addressed the convention. He praised Warren’s success as a mark of progress for the nation. He closed out his speech, one of the last of his political career, with a message for Democrats nationwide. “When I was growing up, no one could have imagined how far our country would have came. I’m proud of the role I’ve played in that effort. I’m proud of our accomplishments. Despite the opposition, despite the difficulties, we pushed on. And that’s what I want to leave you all with. Keep pushing forward.”

Warren addressed the convention on the final day. Her speech had three goals: Blast Haley, rally the party, and highlight her own record. In general, her speech was well received. She achieved all three goals to some degree of effectiveness. Many pundits felt she spent too much time attacking Haley and highlighting her liberal record. Her speech focused on her staunch liberal ideals, foreshadowing her general election strategy.

At the close of the Democratic Convention, the party was dragging its feet, but still moving towards the general election. The Haley campaign had gotten a head start, but Democrats were determined to catch up.

Governor Chris Sununu announced as Haley's running mate week before RNC.