United Kingdom General Election: July 4, 2024

[MillennialModerate]

God, can't they just get it over with instead? This is starting to get ridiculous.

Are they running the risk that even if some things in the country do improve it won’t matter? Or are they already there at this point?

Also: That’s why the office holder being in charge of when to call an election when you have 5 year terms is - frankly dumb.

UK should have a set election every 4 years (5 is too long) and an early election be called when something like 2/3rds of the House requires it. The incumbent shouldn’t be able to manipulate the system in a way that takes advantage of the times they do the job right by landsliding an opponent (which is how you get these enormously long periods of single parties in power) and then when they are doing terrible and everyone wants them out they can essentially squat.

[MillennialModerate]

Ol Nigey will not be standing.
https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1793554758923588029

He bottled it.

Big time. The US shouldn’t have been in that message - it makes it obvious where his allegiance is. I actually used to personally like him - despite the fact I disagreed with so much of what he said.

[MillennialModerate]

Well, time to get this thing going.




I'm starting my expectations at the benchmark of approximately (so number are neater): 420 Labour, 140 Conservative, 50 Lib-Dem, 16 SNP, 3 Plaid, 3 Others including the Speaker, and 18 obviously from Northern Ireland. I have a rough list, but I would prefer not to go into seat-by-seat detail at this moment.  

People are forgetting how high of a climb this would be for Labour.  In the famous Blair Landslide they gained 146 seats. This prediction would be around that much. Plus for whatever reason right wing parties tend to fall in line and come around more than left wing parties who are overly concerned with “purity” … I happen to like Kier Starmer a lot. But the British public don’t - Labour should win this by default and it’ll be a good showing but polls tighten during a campaign we all know that and the inflation numbers are just enough to put the “but maybe” in the mind of disenchanted Tory voters - so  for sure a likely good night for Labour but the 400’s is unlikely and the poll of polls showing greater than the first Blair Landslide is taking it a little too far IMO.

So a rough idea of where I think this is going…

Labour                     360  (+155)
Conservative           210   (-134)
Liberal Democrat      35   (+20)
SNP                           25   (-18)

[MillennialModerate]

Can someone explain to me how 2 polls have both shown movement toward the Conservatives with such a horrendous start to the campaign? I mean that one poll with a 14 point margin - it’s a clear Labour win but it’s not wipeout territory everyone has been talking about

[MillennialModerate]

First Scottish poll of the campaign, from More In Common:

• Labour 35%
• SNP 30%
• Conservatives 17%
• Liberal Democrats at 10%
• Reform UK 4%
• Greens at 3%

If you plug that into a universal swing model, it puts us roughly on 28 Lab, 16 SNP, 8 Tory, 5 Lib Dem. Usual disclaimers about universal swing and tactical voting apply - we don't know how well anti-SNP unionist tactical voting will hold up compared to anti-Tory tactical voting.

They haven't polled Scotland before but they are an accurate. (especially in May) A deep dive suggests their weighting method prompts don't knows which is something you want to see at this point in polling. That is favourable to Labour. Also a more realistic Lib Dem vote.


On a personal note, a five point deficit isn't what I want to see, but the fundamentals are not as bad as they could be for the SNP especially compared to more recent polls, particularly on voter retention.

How effecient is the Labour vote in Scotland? a 35-30 margin enough for 12 more seats?

[MillennialModerate]

"Kwarteng drank champagne with bankers to celebrate mini-Budget"

https://twitter.com/thattimwalker/status/1795571297403236611

"PM declares he is a Thatcherite"

His only notable economic proposal is maintaining and expanding already disproportional welfare payments to unproductive population at cost paid by taxpayers. Some Thatcherism, that one.

I’m surprised Sunak is on board with this court the right strategy. He’s basically waiving the white flag and trying to limit the damage - which makes sense for the party but I’m wondering why he is, once he’s gone it’s not his problem anymore

[MillennialModerate]

FT out with a good adjustable prediction model

https://twitter.com/xtophercook/status/1795704746969641157

Can someone explain to me what caused such a dramatic shift in the effeciency of votes in the UK?

In 2005 - Labour won the popular vote over the Conservatives by 2.8 points and got a 60 seat majority. Now - you plug numbers in with Labour over the Conservatives by 7 points and it only puts them in largest party hung parliament territory

[MillennialModerate]

https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1796633753931907396

This is a massive majority. How are they going to govern with 500 or so MPs? Will they seek some revolutionary policies or rather try to brand themselves as the new natural party of governance?

I still say 370-380 is the sweet spot but holy moly. A poll like that could mean even with a decent margin of error you’re STILL in Blair territory