National polling makes total sense...state polling on the other hand has been trash.
Have you seen the pollsters? There's a clear reason why.
Yeah but if Biden’s up 8 or more he’s not losing Georgia or Texas. No dice.
I’m guessing those states polling has yet to account for new transplants and other factors. Makes sense given the disaster that was Arizona 2018 senate polling.
Biden +8 nationally is, IMO, Clinton 2016 plus the Big Six swing states (FL, NC, AZ, MI, WI, PA) plus NE-02 plus maybe any one of the four "reach states" (GA, TX, OH, IA) but not more than one.
Biden +10 or so nationally is when we see 3 or even all 4 of the reach states all go Dem and Biden starts having a really good chance of getting ME-02 back.
ME02 will not be harder to win back then Georgia or Texas.
HELL, I think it might go Dem even in a Trump win!
Meanwhile Texas has about a 10% of going Dem, Georgia has a 1%
