UK General Discussion:The Rt. Hon Alex Boris de Pfeffel Johnson, Populist Hero

[MillennialModerate]

Bugger.

Feeling a bit happier now?

I'm always going to want England to lose. That's sort of the whole point of the Home Nations in sports. And if it helps, Wales in both football and rugby annoy me more!

But I'm livid at the goodwill, international goodwill, that a lot of people had for the England squad this time with all the crap directed at the players being squandered in those last few games and after the final by the fans yet again.

I remember a couple years ago I was  reading about how England clubs were being banned from the Europe club tournaments (what became UEFA Champions League) in for a few years in the late 80’s due to hooliganism. I remember saying to myself... huh? They can’t be that bad. But some of the videos and social media posts I’ve seen after yesterday’s final are sickening. I get theyre heartbroken and frustrated that England will never win the Euro or WC but.. that’s heartbreak and frustration does not justify the total vile, disgusting, appalling way in which those fans have presented themselves

[MillennialModerate]

It’s a shame UK has a 5 year gap between elections. It should be 4 years.

With Labour up 12% in the polls that would likely result in a historic flip and bring Labour from around 200 seats to….what…. 380 seats?

Labour 43% • (176 majority • 418 seats)
Conservative 31%
LibDem 17%


Labour 41% • (164 majority • 412 seats)
Conservative 32%
LibDem 18%

[MillennialModerate]

It’s a shame UK has a 5 year gap between elections. It should be 4 years.

With Labour up 12% in the polls that would likely result in a historic flip and bring Labour from around 200 seats to….what…. 380 seats?

Labour 43% • (176 majority • 418 seats)
Conservative 31%
LibDem 17%


Labour 41% • (164 majority • 412 seats)
Conservative 32%
LibDem 18%

I don't mind if Labour wins the election but please spare us those hideous LibDem numbers.

I know they have some fundamental differences but it makes zero sense that Labour and LibDems don’t merge. This isn’t the 80’s or 90’s or even the 00’s … it should be done. I wonder how many seats would flip if they had a combined vote.

[MillennialModerate]

Okay well how about a more far reaching arrangement where the parties never run in the same seat unless it’s a Lab/Lib seat.

[MillennialModerate]

Okay well how about a more far reaching arrangement where the parties never run in the same seat unless it’s a Lab/Lib seat.

That is likely to benefit Conservatives, actually, given the number of LDs voters who would never vote Labour and the number of Labour voters who would never vote for a Liberal Democrat MP.

I can see a LibDem voter not voting Labour. But why would a Labour voter rather go Tory than LibDem?

Another question - did that dynamic change under New Labour? Didn’t New Labour in the Blair years kind of invade the center ground territory that LibDems had? Weren’t LibDems to the left of Labour at some points

[MillennialModerate]

Question: How bad had the landscape and new boundaries screwed Labour? Back in ‘97 Labour got 43% and the Conservatives got 31%. Then in ‘01 Labour got 41% and Conservatives 32%. Those resulted in a massive landslides of 418 seats and 412 seats or 172 seat majority and then 164 zest majority

How many polls show similar percentages of the vote - some even more in Labour favor but the seat projections put them with a modest amount of seats. I even saw one poll that gave Labour a 6 point lead on the Conservatives and then finishing 20 short of a majority.

Does the SNP dominance basically make it very hard for Labour to form a majority government unless it’s a massive historical landslide?

[MillennialModerate]

https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1501991579136966660?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoo...

The SNP is really what is doing in Labour here.

In the old days 39% and +6% over the Conservatives for Labour would easily get them a healthy majority. Now it would likely get them around 300 seats because the SNP own Scotland.

Something that confuses me is how strong the SNP are in Scotland despite the fact “Yes” never seems to come close to leading in the polls for Scottish Independence

[MillennialModerate]

Ugh of course. Starmer is finished.

He’s my favorite British leader since Blair (although I liked Cameron) so it’s unfortunate - especially considering I don’t know who else for Labour could possibly win a general election

[MillennialModerate]

Very principled position he’s taken but a foolish one.

You can’t rule out the police being pressured by tories

[MillennialModerate]

Very principled position he’s taken but a foolish one.

You can’t rule out the police being pressured by tories

Tories don't exactly win by forcing him out under these circumstances.

I get what you mean - how bad do they look if Starmer falls on the sword - but at the same time the alternative - Starmer staying around after putting it all on the line and being vindicated is even worse for the tories

[MillennialModerate]

I mean, if Starmer has to resign due to breaching COVID rules then it makes he and Labour look a little silly after spending six months screeching about Tory breaches of COVID rules. Sure, him resigning probably limits the damage significantly, but it still doesn’t look great (helps feed into a decent ‘Labour are hypocritical/opportunistic’ line, although of course the best way to spin this would be by the Tories saying that he shouldn’t resign and then announcing an amnesty for past breaches of COVID rules).

Meanwhile, a leadership election’s gonna be a faff for Labour and even if it is to be a coronation (hardly guaranteed), I can’t think of any potential candidates who would give the Conservatives more reason to worry than the present leader of the opposition.

would Lisa Nandy, Wes Streeting or do have that? I’m not sure.

No, no. No.

This is all or nothing for Labour. If he’s vindicated I think it gives Labour a boost. If he isn’t then you won’t see a Labour government until 2029

[MillennialModerate]

Well not nearly as bad as the Americans - the instinct for political survival
is contangious. They know there is no alternative that can win a General election.

That said: BoJo surviving is a forgone conclusion

[MillennialModerate]

That said: BoJo surviving is a forgone conclusion

Welp, that settles it: RIP BoJo.

This idea that I’m always wrong is silliness. Almost every call I’ve made on here that doesn’t involve Georgia or Nevada has been accurate

Anyway. It always confused by how someone could win a vote like that and it being declared that it has “mortally wounded” them. The guy won. That’s it….

[MillennialModerate]

So the top 2 choices for PM are Truss & Sunak? Wow, the UK is in an even worse shape than I thought.

Horrible choices.

Yikes. I think Penny would’ve been formidable in the next election.

And Sunak will almost certainly be the next PM. Electability argument will spook some hard right voters away from Truss.

Beautiful, thank you Britain!

https://twitter.com/oprosuk/status/1549698310113755137?s=21

https://twitter.com/oprosuk/status/1549697979602305024?s=21

Sadly - it take enormous margins like this to get a half decent Labour majority because of Scotlands silly SNP fetish. And even more sad is I can’t see these margins holding till the next election

[MillennialModerate]

So the top 2 choices for PM are Truss & Sunak? Wow, the UK is in an even worse shape than I thought.

Horrible choices.

Yikes. I think Penny would’ve been formidable in the next election.

And Sunak will almost certainly be the next PM. Electability argument will spook some hard right voters away from Truss.

Beautiful, thank you Britain!

https://twitter.com/oprosuk/status/1549698310113755137?s=21

https://twitter.com/oprosuk/status/1549697979602305024?s=21

Sadly - it take enormous margins like this to get a half decent Labour majority because of Scotlands silly SNP fetish. And even more sad is I can’t see these margins holding till the next election

A Labour-SNP coalition is fine!

Yeah No… aligning with the SNP in a coalition is akin to treason to voters in Wales and England. It would ruin Labours appeals to moderates