British Local Elections, May 2024

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1786187421106749944?t=2DXdh7sfWeAIkKVgP...

This is one ward I didn't have falling, Reform at work.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1786188880204451989?t=HFadaLlt62MxUBKJQ...

https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1786185456079487361?t=scw6IWdhOItrTRy2P...

Seemingly dueling results,  but not really.  The Lib-Dems gain is a repeat of 2023, whereas the localist loss is new. And Notably the localists supported the independent candidate for mayor of the northeast.

[Oryxslayer]

Sunderland is done. Labour end up gaining gaining six: 5 off the Tories in 2021 (several now Indies) and 1 off the Lib-Dems which is a first. Lib-Dems once again the opposition.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1786197495934005566?t=-ekQXT9u_BTtDuMfA...

Disappointment for the Lib-Dem, who took this in 2023. Labour growth might point to them taking Lib-Dem seats, or it may not.

I believe hartlepool just declared a Labour ward gain on BBC but it was muffled.

And also despite some large swings to the Greens in (muslim?) wards in Newcastle, they still found a way to take Castle ward which was a Lib-Dem stronghold.

[Oryxslayer]

Something people who are not British (or who have not followed these things before) should note is that local factors are very important in shaping some results, even if national patterns are what they are.

That's definitely what happened in South Tyneside, and could in later Southeast councils. Question is...why. it's not on the council's misbehaving list as Teale likes to call it. The greens were not the beneficiaries. It think it was mentioned somewhere that local labour were just very complacent in 2023, maybe a repeat?

[Oryxslayer]

Hartlepool is falling, with Reform also cutting into the Indies. Labour have taken it. 9/12, seven gains. Most seats with over 50% so reform hurt the Tories but no in an way that was unexpected.

[Oryxslayer]

Labour have gained 5 seats in Thurrock and it's 9/1/1 with 6 seats left to declare. 1 more and they have a majority. They were expected to make gains given the poor situation locally there, but not a total landslide. The recent council tax raise must have compounded the debt issue.

It fell with the next result declared lol, which was another gain.

[Oryxslayer]

Cons lose North East Lincolnshire to NOC.

And notably in a much worse fashion for the Tories than I benchmarked.



Peterborough is a Tory bloodbath, but nobody specific is gaining.

[Oryxslayer]

Professor Curtis says rushmoor had boundary changes on BBC...which is incorrect. He's getting too old!

[Oryxslayer]

Some Maps of results so far:











Colchester, Labour gained one which means the Lib-Dems still will lead the working group by 1:

[Oryxslayer]

First P & C result (some are lagging their schedules...) is a Tory hold. This is a two-party swing of 16% to Labour, but the real story is Reform. But at the same time they arn't doing so well in what should be a great area, and they didn't pull the Tories under even with what seems to be a Labour surge from Lincoln city.

[Oryxslayer]

Labour are now the largest party and minority leader in Southend.



Other councils:



Utter chaos in Peterborough, but forming a administration will be difficult.

[Oryxslayer]

Plymouth was almost a Tory free result, with them holding 1 seat. What makes this suprising is that last time the Tories locally were in Chaos after backlash to greenspace policies. But the wave was repeated now with Labour in power.

[Oryxslayer]

Labour has gained Redditch, per the BBC

Sweep, though not too surprising given there were new lines so everyone was up. Labour take every seat in the seven new northern wards actually covering the town for 21. Conservatives win two wards in the south, but there's a Green also elected down there so they only get 5 not 6.

[Oryxslayer]

Labour have also held Bolton. The notable thing here is that they only lost a single seat. Last year Bolton had every council seat up, and this class was the third place finishers - aka full of split ticket beneficiaries who were mostly Labour. So they were overexposed and got more overexposed via defections in their favor. 

[Oryxslayer]

One of the few places Labour failed to hit their goal: Harlow. 17 Con to 16 Labour with 5 Labour gains and the deciding seat very close.

Tories have lost everything in Portsmouth.

A map of the landslide in Thurrock:

[Oryxslayer]

Back after a nap. Forgot who said it yesterday but the sum of these results is basically the following. The Tories (+Reform in some areas) are doing about the same as last year in 2023. However, the opposition votes are more determined to see them lose, and voting gravitation towards the most viable option is higher. Which means in theory Labour are doing better than 2023, which they are in many target councils. But their seat count isn't ending up larger than modeled cause of a small but noticeable number of losses in safe areas.

[Oryxslayer]

Norwich just finished, Labour retook the majority. A possibility but a difficult one. No Muslims, no support for the defectors, which again is yet another potentially interesting tea leaf for Hastings later.

[Oryxslayer]

It was intended that there would be no risk of 'I've seen enough' poasts for the N.E. Mayor, but a decision was made by at least some council officers to break omerta:

https://twitter.com/danhollandnews/status/1786362583995367547

Was this a by election and hold or gain?

That's for the new NE mayor, one (the largest single) area in a race between Labour and the deselected Labour Indie incumbent from the previously smaller mayoralty.

[Oryxslayer]

After the Tees Valley mayoral election  a Labour source went on twitter and said Labour don't expect to take the West Midlands cause of Gaza Defectors. But then another source did the same thing and said that source was bullocks and did not speak for the inside mood.

TL:DR: West Midlands doesn't count till tomorrow, and Labour are trying to gauge their support there based on other areas.

IMO, this is all for nothing cause Reform have a candidate here. If Reform do as well in the Black Country as they did in the NE then Labour can lose many more votes than thought. In fact, one of the public polls showed this.

[Oryxslayer]

Tory collapse in Welwyn Hatfield - looks pretty terminal for Grant Shapps.

Labour outperformed the benchmark in Welwyn Hatfield, taking Lib-Dem target seats, meaning they now are the largest part and will likely take leadership from their lib-dem partners.

[Oryxslayer]

And Labour have taken Hyndburn, nestled between the Muslimm defector zones.


Castle point is now a Tory free zone between the localist PIP (majority) and the Caveny Island Independence (wants their own council) group.

Tories are now expecting to get locked out in Basildon, losing their majority and Lab+Indies work together.

Cambridgeshire P&C was a Tory hold by 2% over Labour, gains for both Labour and Lib-Dems. A clear place where the Tories would lose if the second round was still a thing.

[Oryxslayer]

Burnley. Despite the narrative in other Muslim wards, Labour makes advances against all parts of the defector coalition.

[Oryxslayer]

Incumbent parties hold their P&C seats in Wales. Tories hold Suffolk by 9%, Greens surprisingly in a distant third.

[Oryxslayer]

Lots of the important stuff should be coming soon. Nuneaton, Dudley, East Midlands, York & North Yorkshire, Hastings, MK, Tamworth.

With Hyndburn done we can see it's not just a win but a sweep for Labour.

NE Mayor is a Labour gain/hold 185K for Labour, 126K for Driscoll. Tories close to Reform.