British Local Elections, May 2024

[Oryxslayer]

West Midlands P&C is 61.8 - 38.2 Labour. Yes Labour have the incumbent, but Street would need ticket splitting above what the polls said, and not lose voters to Reform in the western councils.

[Oryxslayer]

Burnham Landslide comes through as expected in Manchester. Tories close to Reform, but their candidate issues here make that unsuprising.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1786766680745484444

Rumours the original "result" had Street losing by a few thousand votes.

Source is Tories requested the recount. You don't do that when ahead. So Put "couple thousand" and "recount" together and we know the result.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1786772357735997709

The smells like reform pulling Street under in the Black Country. Which given the tight result, is going to look awful for Westminster and Sunak.

[Oryxslayer]

Combined results so far for England PCC's and elected mayors (where no PCC election)

Labour 42.6
Conservative 30.7
Liberal Democrat 13.0
Green 5.2 (8.9 where standing)
Others 8.5

Probably a good combination of 'expected' results and over/under performances. Worth noting that in 'cop shop' elections, you do expect the Tories to do better

Obviously that comes with the health warning that some of Labour's best areas don't have these, and substituting the Mayors who do have the power instead doesn't exactly work. Personalities exist int he second group whereas the first is forgotten.


The interesting thing about the numbers is that the map is quite blue despite the topline. And this is cause 12/17 Tory wins in the P&Cs right now are <5%, with the average Conservative result across the board being in the min-30s. Firstly it says that the elimination of runoffs saved these little-noticed offices - but basically no others given the Tory collapse since 2023. Was the unpopular change really worth it if this is the only reward?

Secondly, and more importantly, it points at the distribution of votes across the country. The Tories are holding up well in their rural and blue suburbs, but are losing all the more populous urban, commuter, or town centres in between. That converted to a GE probably means Labour are not hitting the highs of the 500ish universal swing models cause the remaining Tory vote is concentrated enough - unless Reform ends up creating funky vote splits. But conversely, it means even the seats closer to the end of the 425ish tail are likely to be more solidly for Labour than we suspect. And the same for the Lib-Dems of course, but with a more limited target board.

And that's not exactly a surprising story, given how Labour are sweeping places like Redditch, Crawley, Rushmoor etc but aren't getting absurd numbers in the (wisely derided) national voteshare.

[Oryxslayer]

Parker still winning despite that massive vote for Yakoob in Brum would be genuinely astonishing.

Honest question here: how possible/likely is it for Galloway to do the chicken run? His initial by-election victory was not that convincing and results across most of greater Manchester were not good to him in these locals. Instead the pro-Gaza ticket did better in more small-c conservative Muslim areas in South/West Yorkshire and the Midlands. Even if he has burned bridges in some of these areas, there's still others.

Even for the standards of political reporting this was terrible-especially as said person is rumoured to be fronting the BBCs election night coverage.

We all dabble in rumours but even we weren't saying 'it's looking closer' before a vote had been reported.

Try slapping a community note on that comparing the result and polls, saying its unwise to speculate lol

[Oryxslayer]

Coventry:

32,704 Parker

23,237 Street

Reminder the Default going to this delay was Labour by a few thousand overall.

[Oryxslayer]

It took 2.5 more hours, but the result we heard about earlier appears to have been confirmed by the parties.

[Oryxslayer]

Some are saying now that the Tories are going to roll out the carpet for Street in Solihull (Solihull West after boundary changes) if he wants it. Which would likely put him in a strong position as one of the few MPs with experience  and ready for a shadow role, since the losses will leave them with many freshmen and long-serving backbenchers. The only issue with this is if the Badenochs and JRMs of the party become champions over the parties rubble, which they might, since they could have a higher proportion of remaining MPs.

[Oryxslayer]

Total Margin after Sandwell is 1.5K for Labour.

[Oryxslayer]

Some are saying now that the Tories are going to roll out the carpet for Street in Solihull (Solihull West after boundary changes) if he wants it. Which would likely put him in a strong position as one of the few MPs with experience  and ready for a shadow role, since the losses will leave them with many freshmen and long-serving backbenchers. The only issue with this is if the Badenochs and JRMs of the party become champions over the parties rubble, which they might, since they could have a higher proportion of remaining MPs.

The whole saga has been mad! They very nearly caused him to leave after cancelling HS2- a policy driven laregly by chronic treasury brain & frankly spreadsheet Rishi & his Transport sec hating trains. Boris had his flaws but on transport he did actually get it...

And for Street the sensible thing I would have done is not run for re-election! He could have expected a seat in the Lords, or as you suggest a safe seat- if he wanted one. Some people do not want to go near the commons, and he has the profile you'd expect of someone who doesn't want to be doing immigration casework and adjournment debates

Yeah he seems like the person who would prefer to walk away, but at the same time not walk away if the party will choose to piss on his legacy.

[Oryxslayer]

To finally put the nail in the coffin of that "projected national share" the Conservative Party leadership is using it's modeled seat totals  to convince their MPs, in reaction to the West Midlands, to stay the course. But nobody is buying it cause everyone knows the model is a BS exercise.




Also buried below the mayoral declarations Reform ended up with a London Council seat in the city-wide PR allocation.

[Oryxslayer]

Would I be correct in comparing Labour's win in the London mayoral election with Doug Ford's byelection win in Milton? An unpopular incumbent party that gets reelected due to the greater unpopularity of the senior government?

Electorally,  maybe. But campaign/candidate-wise, incomparable.  I don't think even CCHQ expected to win London and therefore picked a candidate list accordingly.  Their campaign was about satisfying the outer borough and keeping the anti-ULEZ torch aflame for the future. It also ended up as a cuture war fight that only appeals to the base. Nick Rodgers,  who failed to be selected for the Tories,  was certainly out there yesterday saying that things could have gone differently (maybe not in outcome but  margin) if the Tories actually had a viable alternative and not just reacting to khan.

[Oryxslayer]

Lib-Dems should have 2 not 1 on that map FYI.

[Oryxslayer]

Who is the 'People's Independent Party’ who just won control in Castle Point?

Prior to this election there was a three-party dynamic in Castle Point. Before reading below, remember that the council is divided geographically, and the mainland has more seats than the island.

First is the Long-governing Conservatives who had built up a lot of dissatisfaction federally and locally among even their loyal voters. Even though this is very Blue territory.

Next grouping is the Cavaney Island Independence Party: a localist grouping confined to the southern part of the council covering the aforementioned Island. Beyond just general localism they want the island to have it's own council. They gradually built themselves into a machine over two decades that wins every seat there - they are the 15 Indies on BBC's tracker.

The third grouping is the PIP. They are a localist ticket who sprung up in the past few years, uniting various council Independents and slowly making gains on the larger mainland side of the council.

In 2023 the CIIP and PIP almost completely swept their respective sides of the council. They then formed an administration. With all wards now up for reelection after boundary changes, The two localist groups completed the sweep of their sections. Since the mainland is larger, the PIP gets a majority, and BBC therefore has to create their own group separate from Resident's Associations to the distinguish the two.

[Oryxslayer]

So with the last two P&Cs done, the set of elections are totally complete. Which means now is as good of a time as any to do a little analysis. IMO there are two decent ways of doing this with different data heading to different destinations. And neither is a universal vote estimate. The second, far longer analysis, will come in the following post.


The first way is simply looking at anticipated seat change. This is a national measure. For this I will use the New Statesman's/Ben Walker's as a basis because it is close enough to a good target. However, with a few adjustments. Prior to the election I suspected they were overshooting Labour cause the estimate didn't take into account defectors whatsoever, so Labour were starting from a lower baseline and had a higher mountain to climb in some councils. I also expected the Greens to do better than their benchmark - largely cause they could cut through the defector vs Labour chaos and sweep in certain councils.

Forecast:

-478 | Conservative
+273 | Labour
+129 | Lib-Dem
+52 | Green
+24 | Other

Actual:

-474 Conservative
+186 Labour
+104 Lib-Dem
+74 Green
+110 Others

So in terms of the national picture some parties missed their expectations, some hit them.

The Conservatives matched awful expectations, doing as bad as polling would suggest. They undeniably had a awful night.

Labour meanwhile undershot even my expectations. This is down to losing blocks of Muslim-heavy wards in certain northern councils to Independent challengers. However, despite this underperformance, nationally things are still decent for them.

The Lib-Dems slightly undershot the estimation, but more or less hit their national expectations with where the Tories are polling.

The Greens hit my own estimates, but in an unusual fashion as we will see later. They are inhabiting a role similar to the Lib-Dems right now, opposing both parties differently based on local circumstances, and who dominates in that area.

Independents obvious overshot. Though only half of this is Muslims motivated by Gaza. Shire Localists also had a good night.


But the national picture is only half the story.

[Oryxslayer]

The other way to look at things, and arguably the best but most difficult way, is with a scorecard. I laid out my views somewhat in this prior post, as well as the previews, but control or gains in key areas is what matters here. Electorally ‘quiet’ areas will be skipped for succinctness. How this will be sorted is by Labour then the Lib-Dems, and each will first be matched vs the Tories then other parties when relevant, and at the end of each will be surprise results. So the Conservative side is divided between the two groups.

Labour vs Conservative

Adur – outperformed expectations. Complete landslide for first ever majority.
Basildon – outperformed expectations. Took every target while also tactical voting gave Labour allies for a administration.
Bolton – above expectations. Held ground that was marginally won in 2023.
Cannock Chase – matched expectations.
Cherwell – matched expectations.
Crawley – outperformed expectations. Landslide unexpected given past tight contests.
Dudley – matched expectations. Expected close fight, was a close fight.
East Midlands Mayor – Matched expectations. Margins close to 2023 council results.
Hartlepool – above expectations. 9/12 was the benchmark, but Labour hit >50% in most wins even with Reform.
Harlow – Under expectations. Failed to take majority, but only by inches.
Hyndburn – outperformed expectations. Not just the Landslide, but a landslide surrounded by councils facing Muslim challengers.
Lincoln – above expectations. Swept Tories despite local headwinds.
London Mayor – Matched Expectations.
Milton Keynes – matched expectations. Years of strong results were repeated, Gains were not by overwhelming margins.
North Hertfordshire – above expectations.
Northeast Lincolnshire – outperformed expectations. Tossup if Tories would lose control, ended up easily falling.
Nuneaton – above expectations. Close result, but still took the majority when starting with near 0.
Peterborough – above expectations.
Plymouth – outperformed expectations. A second landslide without the local tory issues of 2023.  
Redditch – outperformed expectations. Landslide result.
Rugby – matched expectations. Took expected seats, Came close but failed in the reach targets.
Rushmoor – outperformed expectations. It’s not the seats won, but Labour winning them mostly >50%.
Southend – above expectations. Labour now has the plurality, but could not take a majority.
Stevenage – above expectations.
Swindon – matched expectations.
Tamworth – outperformed expectations. Sweep even after the MPs changed, and with many strong margins.
Tees Valley Mayor – below expectations. But perhaps down to Houchen not Labour.
Thurrock – outperformed expectations. Gains a control were anticipated but the ‘shock’ pre-election council tax raise seems to have allowed Labour to push into unfavorable turf.
Welwyn Hatfield – above expectations. Made more gains than in 2022 or 2023.
West Midlands Mayor – above expectations. The data suggests this would be an easy gain in normal circumstances – defying narratives – and Labour still gained it with Muslim troubles – defying additional and different narratives.

Labour vs Additional Groups

Basingstoke – Far below expectations. Other groups took Labours targets from 2023.
Bristol – below expectations. There is a silver lining verses the Tories, but the Greens are stronger.
Burnley – matched expectations. Made gains but did not land knockout on defectors.
Colcester – matched expectations. Failed to take coalition leadership, but did advance.
Cambridge – above expectations. Troubles vanished with the congestion charge.  
Hastings – Matched expectations(?). There was an outside shot at a sweep, but taking Tory and defector wards seems fine even alongside Green gains – especially since issues in the 24 hours before the vote here would have pushed things to the Greens.
Norwich – Matched expectations.
Oxford – below expectations. Local trasport containment policies continue to be net losers.
Portsmouth – below expectations. Localists took Labour’s targets.
Rochdale – Above expectations. Measured to Indie results elsewhere, the Gallowayites failed, even though they created greater expectations for themselves.  
Sheffield – above expectations.
Stroud – Above expectations. Even though the greens are now larger, and Labour would have liked control, Labour taking the back defector seats, and more was far from a given.
Worcester – matched expectations.

Labour shock results

Bradford – Below expectations. Anticipated losses to Muslims Indies, not in the dominant fashion of some wards.
Blackburn with Darwin – Below expectations. Losses to Muslim Indies only tempered by gains off Tories.
Havant – Above expectations. Somehow Labour were the main beneficiary of Tory collapse and could take control.
Kirklees – Below expectations. See Bradford.
North Yorkshire Mayor – Outperformed expectations. Not an expected gain, or seen as a target.
Oldham – Far below expectations. See Bradford.
Runnymeade – Above expectations. See Havant, but more shocking given the geography.
South Tyneside – Far below expectations. Though maybe not a surprise given local issues.
Wokingham – Above expectations. Surprise gains, in unfriendly turf historically.



Liberal Democrats vs Conservatives

Brentwood – Below expectations. No majority.
Cheltenham – Matched expectations.
Cherwell – Above expectations. Pushed into new rural turf.
Dorset – Matched expectations. Not a rural landslide like certain other councils last year.
Elmbridge – Matched & Below expectations. Tories mostly fell as anticipated, But localists did not so no majority.
Gloucester – Above expectations. No majority, but they were the unknown local beneficiary.
Gosport – Matched expectations.
Milton Keynes – Matched Expectations.
North Hertfordshire – Matched expectations.
Pendle - Matched expectations.
Rugby – Matched expectations. Also missed their reach seats.
Wokingham – Below expectations. Missed majority.
West Oxfordshire – Matched expectations.
Welwyn Hatfield – Below expectations. Labour took some targets.

Liberal Democrats vs Additional Groups

Colchester – below expectations. Failed to take Tory wards lost a seat to Labour.
Lincoln – below expectations. No Local Labour backlash leaves the Lib-Dems confined to their corner of the city.
Maidstone – Below expectations. Greens were the opposition of choice.
Hull – matched expectations.
Portsmouth – Matched expectations. Continue to see potential opportunities squandered.
Sheffield – Below Expectations.
Stockport – Below Expectations. Did not take majority.

Lid-Dem Shock results

Newcastle – below expectations. Failed to capitalize on events and lost ground, even to a determined Conservative.
Tandridge – below expectations. Let localists capture the narrative, and now there are way too many groupings here.
Tunbridge Wells – Outperformed Expectations. Did not expect a play for the majority versus other parties.



So what does the checklist suggest?

Again, the Conservatives matched or even undershot their awful expectations. The only cherries to pick are Harlow, Tees Valley, and shire P&Cs, and those cherries taste foul.

Labour, by contrast, on average were above expectations. And their expectations were very good to start with. They had a very good night by this measure. The only opposition to the narrative were the various shock underperformances, usually to Muslim Indies.

The Lib-Dems did good in the national picture, but here I would say they actually undershot their expectations. In classic Lib-Dem fashion there were a few good results only the party could see coming, but their expected targets did not fall - and some were seemingly very easy. This isn't to say they had a bad result, but rather a result that didn't hit expectations set by 2023.

The Greens going in had 3 big targets, and one was good compared to the possibilities. Sure they would have loved a majority in Bristol, but the end result is above expectations. Instead what didn't go their way is that Labour remain a strong opposition there, taking Tory seats while losing others to the Greens. Stroud and Hastings meanwhile saw good Green results, but again Labour came stomping back in, defying expectations. The expected Green exploitation of a divided Labour vs Defector field did not occur. Instead, most of their overall gains and good results were in lesser targets, as well as the odd ward where local activists concentrated their efforts.

[Oryxslayer]

How do we reconcile the divergences between these two? By bringing in the P&Cs. They confluence of these three tells us something about the national GE picture.

The Conservatives held onto many of these shire posts, albeit by small margins. A universal swing though would have expected more to fall. Almost all probably would if still under runoff rules, and that is the key.

The answer to the puzzle is that Labour know the environment has been and continues to remain anti-Tory rather than pro-Labour. They know voters are behaving tactically and are looking for viable options. So in rural areas, Labour are often not even getting the odd seat. Cause other parties have the monopoly on opposition. In many more places though it is Labour with the prominent position, and they outperform expectations as others gravitate to them.

In short, Labour have hit a new ceiling, much much higher than the one people saw in 2019, but one that is not of their own making.

This tells us something important about the forthcoming general election: universal swing will likely need to take a back seat. Labour are playing for a majority, know they can win a majority, and know they can win big. There is no point playing for the the 500+ result, especially if the voters in seats on the road to 500 don't see Labour as the opposition in their area. So Labour's vision is narrower, but at the same time everything within it is probably going to be won with wider margins than expected.


The seats outside their window are not of major concern. Some are going to go Lib-Dem. if rural seats fall to Labour, great, but it will probably be of crazy vote splits with the Lib-Dems and Reform. If allowed to, without a relevant Reform, the P&Cs suggest the Tories are more likely to hold their base where neither a federal Lib-Dems or Labour are truly viable - some 125ish seats. They'll collapse everywhere else. But the Reform part is key.

[Oryxslayer]

SNIP

It's not that the polls are wrong - no, the results here show they are right. We have multiple elections and two years of aggregate data to lay the truth bare. Rather, it's the models that break under 20+ point swings. But that shouldn't be that shocking, nor is it surprising that some voters are more approachable than others.

For example, lets do a very rough estimation. Looking just at England - cause Wales and Scotland are more complicated for such a exercise - Labour probably need 360ish seats to match Blair after acconting for the other two regions. Looking at the data, here are some of the seats around that number, after accounting for the fact that Labour aren't going to seriously camapign against Lib-Dem Incumbents. Aldershot, which is basically Rushmoor (+ 2 Hart wards) - Labour just swept the council with over 51% of the vote to the Tories 39%. Wellingborough, which Labour won through a crushing by election. Bracknell, which was a triumph for tactical voting in 2023 and a come-from-nowhere Labour majority. Redditch, which Labour just swept by an 11 point margin that should be large enough to overcome the wards outside the council area. Tamworth, Cannock Chase, and the Basildon seats are even further down, but we didn't need the locals to prove Labour can win these harder lifts - the by-election proved that. But they are the exception, past 400 in the English seats and rural turf takes over with the occasional Lib-Dem target.

Never mind the seats around the majority threshold - Nuneaton, North Swindon, Hitchin, Plymouth Moor View...nobody should doubt these are easy gains after last week. A campaign is never easy, but the voters have rolled out the carpet.

But the local results suggest that without assistance Labour are going to have a hard time pushing deeper into unfriendly shire territory. In some seats that could come from the Lib-Dems, either tactically or through vote splits. But in many more seats a fractured Tory vote with Reform will give let Labour take shock wins. That is how Labour gets to 500, by accident because someone else opened the door.


How the Conservatives stop Reform right now is not my problem. Some support seems genuine from the old Brexit crowd, but more is just dissatisfaction among the base. It's not ideology, it's a loss of purpose. Poor perceptions have rotted away past devotion. Maybe a desperation campaign that stokes fears of letting Labour into your town will bring back enough voters to hold the rural redoubts. But what Sunak really needs is competence and success, things that are presently in very short supply.

[Oryxslayer]

Tories gained a couple of seats from Labour (their only losses) in London, but slightly down elsewhere. LibDems and Greens achieve small net gains.

EDIT: posted elsewhere that the summary is Lab -2 Tory -1 LibDem +2 Green +1.

What seats did they gain?

Hope to post a full run down on the UK local by-elections page very soon.

Some of the scattered solitary Conservative gains I spotted in the data tables - there are probably more. in addition to the London seat:

- Gosforth Ward in Newcastle. The council's been without Tories for a while here, just one of the reasons why the guy could run a campaign more personal than Blue.

- Astley Bridge Ward in Bolton. Conservatives won by One(!) vote. Which is surprising things were so close: cause the Conservatives won the first and second place seats here in 2023, leaving the incumbent Labour councilor as the odd one out.

- Cliviger with Worsthorne Ward in Burnley. Tories gained from Greens, and by a 20 point margin. Weird situation seems to have happened a number of Burnley areas. The Muslim Defector coalition seems to have angered certain voters, and there was some degree of opposition Tory - Labour tactical voting to get them and their allies out.

- Hyde Werneth Ward in Tameside. Here it just looks to be a very split vote.

- Rushall-Shelfield Ward in Walsall. This was an ex-defector ward which likely influenced things even though the defector did not stand - despite Reform also having a candidate.

- Shirley West and St. Alphege Ward in Solihull. the second seat was a Tory defector who did not stand, so it doesn't really count. Shirley West though was held by the Greens, and even though the local Conservatives have been defying gravity for a while (cause it's Solihull) this ward still went Green in 2022 and 2023.

- In Freeland & Hanborough and North Leigh Wards in West Oxfordshire, the Conservatives took back their seats from councilors who went Indie.

- Woolston Ward in Southampton. Nothing special I can tell, just a close result in a tighter ward.

And a more numerous list of territory not held prior to Boundary changes but held now cause the new lines happened to work in their favor. However since the same councils often had other wards going in the opposite direction, I'm not sure how much these count.