Sen. Menendez and his wife indicted on bribery charges

[Oryxslayer]

It's still very early but I'm noting that the calls to resign are almost entirely coming from the genteel suburbs, with the very notable exceptions of Jones (East Orange), Fulop (Jersey City, but a longtime personal rival) and Currie (Paterson).

If Payne, Baraka, Norcross, Booker, Stack, etc. were to come out and call for resignation, I think then it would truly be over. But Menendez actually does have a slim chance of surviving on a purely urban base by playing this ethnicity card, especially if he faces two or more challengers.

The Bergen, Middlesex, Essex & also Statewide, Passaic, and Morris county chairs all called for him to resign as of 1 hour ago. That's literally the northern urban Democratic machine right there except maybe Union and Hudson. Pascrell and Pallone also joined in after the governor-led mass denouncement.

There is no divide lol, the dam broke.

[Oryxslayer]

It's still very early but I'm noting that the calls to resign are almost entirely coming from the genteel suburbs, with the very notable exceptions of Jones (East Orange), Fulop (Jersey City, but a longtime personal rival) and Currie (Paterson).

If Payne, Baraka, Norcross, Booker, Stack, etc. were to come out and call for resignation, I think then it would truly be over. But Menendez actually does have a slim chance of surviving on a purely urban base by playing this ethnicity card, especially if he faces two or more challengers.

The Bergen, Middlesex, Essex & also Statewide, Passaic, and Morris county chairs all called for him to resign as of 1 hour ago. That's literally the northern urban Democratic machine right there except maybe Union and Hudson. Pascrell and Pallone also joined in after the governor-led mass denouncement.

There is no divide lol, the dam broke.

Pascrell is the only person or group here who has a predominantly urban base; even the Essex County party is increasingly run out of Montclair.

Menendez has vowed to fight on and the silence of the state's urban black and Hispanic leadership (again, for now) is the main reason why he's not yet doomed.

edit: Scutari did call on him to resign, though like Pascrell he is an old-line white ethnic urban.

Anyway, the point of my post was to note an interesting trend in the calls for his resignation but not to say he'll actually hang on. My guess is the dam will actually break sometime soon, with Booker or an ambitious figure like Baraka pulling the trigger. I would say the chances Menendez holds his small, silent coalition together is something like <25%, and the chances that he could ride it to victory even if does are also something like that.

I guess this is where my perspective makes more sense: losing county chairs and prominent statewide officials de facto is a loss of the Line a year from the primary in areas he would need to win. Say he won't resign, then we won't get the clowncar and he'll face probably just 1 serious challenger. Probably Kim based on his preemptively today. They will win these Lines, any others that denounce him following the statewide pressure,  any they already represent, and any others that want to follow the momentum. It doesn't matter who hands out the position, the fact the challenger will have said lines dooms Menendez. He had everything in 2018 and a nobody challenger got 38%, winning the areas where there Line matters little. The new challenger having said support in the North Jersey areas Menendez needs to win in a primary means he probably can't win anymore. 

Winning the primary is his only out, and with that door shutting,  the dam has broken on his fate. If he doesn't announce retirement or resignation soon, someone's gonna hop in and consolidate the dissatisfaction. It doesn't matter if the car is going 10 or 100 mph, the destination is still the same.