Everyone’s assuming he wins renomination after voting to convict Trump?
Had he not done so (but still votes to certify the election), I say he wins by a little more than Johnson did.
Yes, if Toomey's actions remain the same, but he runs for reelection, he probably gets primaried. But not by any of the candidates who actually ran this time, probably some right wing state legislator or Barletta again. Could Fetterman, or Lamb cause the dynamics of the race are infinitely shifted by Toomey running again, have won against not-Oz? Yes, especially with the Shapiro-slide at the top. But probably closer to the Biden numbers or a marginal race in the event of victory.
