Malaysia 2022 General Election Nov 19th

[Oryxslayer]

Okay, so I haven't been paying attention to this as much as I should, given that it was one of my earliest forays into international election mapping. I was totally under the impression that BN/UMNO would resurge with a decent majority - no landside but certainly the keys to power. Maybe parallels to Japan 2009 and 2012.

However, the Merdeka poll showed up in my timeline and I guess things are close again?

Also, I see that malapportionment remains a thing, but has redistricting occurred in any seats since 2018? Right before that election there was some gerrymandering in Port Dickson.

[Oryxslayer]

Same. Didn't have much time to invest in this one, like I said earlier, but should have and everything that has been posted here has helped in bringing me up to speed.

I will say that last time I think I listened to the Malay BBC radio and got reporting live in english, so that's an option if you want it.

[Oryxslayer]

Just got up - lol looks like Merkada was right.

If this holds, do we think BN just collapses/merges to someone else under the weight of its own inertia?

[Oryxslayer]

At this point in time PN is the largest coalition.  I wonder whether this will last until the end of the count.

Also I wonder which will be the first state to complete their count?  Johore (1 more) or Malacca (1 more) or Kelantan (1 more) or Sarawak (3 more)?

Probably not cause most of the western urban corridor is out but Kelantan and Terengganu are mostly done, but if the wave is strong then serious inroads could be made into other areas.

[Oryxslayer]

Projected total: PH 82, PN 79, BN 30, GPS 23, WARISAN 3, IND 3, PBM 1, 1 vacancy.

The most obvious possibility is PN+BN+GPS, but if we went through a whole election and floods and EC dirty tricks and Azmin losing and who knows what else to end up with exactly where we were pre-COVID then these leaders are officially good for less than nothing.

No possibility for PH here unless the fabled and incredibly cursed PH+BN comes true… which totals exactly 112.

BN is in a rut. What they need is some time in the opposition to wash off the stink of corruption and sell themself as the competent Malay party at the next election. But BN is a party of power and an ATM machine for many of its members. There's a good chance BN collapses completely if they are locked out out of power.

I think these two things go together. BN is in a very precarious position. Today was supposed to be their comeback, and instead its a slap in the face. They have some states governments but after today all are either vulnerable to nationalizing effects crashing down upon them or in need of the government support that birthed their governments. So BN perceives a NEED to be in government, even though this need likely kills it in a few years under the weight of inertia, scandal, and failure. So if PN decide they don't need the old guard, I actually wouldn't be too shocked if the cursed PH+BN coalition is attempted: the former wants govt, the latter perceives access as its sole life support - even if said agreement probably leads to voter abandonment.

[Oryxslayer]

Have PN simply captured the old BN machine, or is it a truly ideological shift? Like, are PAS moderating on religious issues or what?

PAS hasn't moderated at all, they just (largely) successfully hid behind PPBM and the Muhyiddin government's image of "nice" "clean" ""stable"" government, and leveraged the public discontent with UMNO corruption and arrogance in calling an election at a time like this

True, but I guess the issue is, is PN simply just going to usurp the old position held by BN. After all, umno itself iirc became increasingly willing to pander to Islamists in the last few decades of its gov - is PN going to essentially become a neo-UMNO just with a formal Islamist wing?

So do people just hate DAP out of pure anti-chinese racism?

I think it is totally understandable.  The Chinese population in Malaysia controls a very large part of the private economy.   If the Chinese also have access to political power this would place them in a very powerful position over the Malay majority.  The entire UMNO-MCA arrangement with BN was done exactly to ensure that the Chinese population has very little political power and the Malay majority agree not to kill the goose that lays the golden eggs.  This arrangement is now breaking down with the decline of BN.

i understand you, but there is something unsettlingly ... Feudal about that arrangement? I don't see how that in the long run helps the chinese position in Malaysian society, nor address Malay grievances/resentments.


Also why did warisan do so badly?

The legal (from some perspectives justified) affirmative action/discrimination in favor of the Malay majority because the other groups are better positioned in the economic and non-political arenas is one of the reasons why the non-Malay vote slowly and then dramatically fled the UMNO alliance. It gets arguably to how one no matter where perceives the ideal of equality, which depends on a multitude of factors influencing ones own identity. Equality could mean a level and fair playing field. Or it could mean opportunity for all. Or representation for all. One could pursue these ideals towards a similar vision of prosperity but result in diverging views on government policy because of where injustice is perceived.

I will note the justification for the electoral malapportionment is said affirmative action. Especially in regards to Sarawak.

[Oryxslayer]

According to the media, It seems UMNO Prez Zahid (who is an old lieutenant of Anwar back in the late 1990s before going back to UMNO) sent a letter to the King backing Anwar as PM behind other BN leaders' backs.  He seems to admit to this late last night to other BN leaders which led to an uproar with MCA and MIC both of which now are now demanding Zahid be removed as UMNO leader.

There should be a movie about these spy vs spy games these few days in the future.

Another parallel to UK 2010 then, since there was a film made from the perspective of the Lib-Dems after the 2010 election (released before the 2015 one) - "Coalition."

[Oryxslayer]

This is the main danger for the PH-BN government where 85% of the Malays voted against PH but BN is joining them in government.  UMNO will be under pressure to show that they are not puppets of DAP (aka the Chinese) or else they will need to leave the government or face extinction. 

The issue is that I think BN's death became inevitable after the election results came it. They were a Party of Power, which means they have a strong legacy brand, a large crop of respected candidates, and strong local organizations. These things could allow any party that faces bad results to go into opposition and rebuild itself for the new fight while criticizing the government. Parties of Power though are often unable to comprehend this route, and it wasn't really an option for BN given the results. The Party and especially it's Old Guard are used to government access and the privilege's that affords, so when their former electorate begins to migrate to multiple different parties, the first instinct is not survival - it's maintaining that access. In doing so, the Party of Power though demonstrates to the electorate its desperation, and furthers the exodus of their electorate.

In this specific case, BN was screwed no matter if it picked PH or PN. PH betrays the voters, PN facilitates their gradual sidelining and irrelevance in favor of the shiny new thing.