Conservative Party of the UK Leadership Election, 2022

[Oryxslayer]

Just about credible enough to post (she's a former deputy editor of The Spectator), but it would be extraordinary even for him.

https://twitter.com/PetronellaWyatt/status/1545755462292971520?s=20&t=GCQ_2X...

Boris Johnson must truly hate the Tory party

This smells like "I really want to imitate present Trump, but I don't fully understand how the rules of the game allow for different outcomes because of different systems." Whether thats the editor, the source, or Boris who trying to foster that comparison is unknown.

[Oryxslayer]

Mordant seems to have hired the team behind all those Lib Dem leaflets with the tenuous bar charts:
https://mobile.twitter.com/PennyMordaunt/status/1548990968027926530?ref_src=twsr...
*To be fair* - this is probably an appeal to MPs to pick her as the most credible anti-Sunak candidate. Doesn’t look great as a bit of political messaging though.

It adds up to 101%

Better than using decimal points

If you actually looked at the detailed reports, a lot of polls add up to 101% or 99% fairly often cause of unfavorable decimal rounding.

[Oryxslayer]

I can't see how Truss is supposed to be more appealing than Mordaunt, even if Mordaunt risks coming across as a lightweight. It's looking pretty likely that the Tories will end up regretting this leadership change and it will haunt them maybe even more than the Thatcher one did, though Boris was in fact toxic due to Partygate and his lack of grip and direction.

Boris had to go. The lack of dynamic successors is just the natural result of being in office for too long and being tied to so much government policy. 

[Oryxslayer]

Is it just that they're not allowed to say the quiet part out loud? Because that statement is surely Tory 101.

Yes, and while it may not damn him eternally in this contest, winning the hypothetic next one will be more more difficult. Those marginal seats in the 'red wall' certainly don't like getting shafted. Like this is just another side effect of the Tories not having an idea why the 'red wall' and 'blue wall' are behaving as they are presently (which is in turn a side effect of lingering in govt), combined with a membership electorate that does not exactly reflect these future marginals.

[Oryxslayer]

Truss’s best (I’d say only) chance to get a win is to call a snap election.

I'd disagree and say Truss's best (only) chance is to just hold on and hope the economic picture looks better in autumn 2024. It's not a great plan but surely calling an election this year as everything is at it's worst would be doomed to fail. Any honeymoon bounce would immediately disappear once an election was called.

The economic situation isn’t going to improve with John Redwood in the Treasury.

Yeah things are unlikely to get notably better in 2 years, but still, the Tories best hope is to gamble on the future. Any honeymoon would quickly fade (like May's) on campaign and we would be back where we are now. Right now is a fine electoral position, but not if you are a Tory of course. Plus if one happens to be in the 'inevitable loss' camp, waiting gives you 2 more years of power.

That all said, if the rumors about Boris are true, I'm sure he will be lobbying hard for that early election, cause a Tory loss means potentially only a brief time in the wilderness. And it's Truss, so no idea if she'll resist this call....