Nigerian Presidential Election, February 25, 2023

[Oryxslayer]

From what I've seen there's some pretty wild cases of voter intimidation and fraud from the APC but Obi seems likely to prevail regardless.

EDIT: some examples:

I don't want to say that's "normal" but the shady side of politics is much more prevalent in any young (relative) democracy.  I mean in 2019 turnout went up by over 200% compared to 2015 in some NE states because boko haram was literally occupying some polling sites in that election.


On another's,  but more relevant note, the count here will take several days, with the largest states being the slowest to announce results.  At least that's what happened last time.

[Oryxslayer]

This looks like a pre-election poll.  I do not see how someone can vote for "undecided" in an election

Like I said upthread: while there may be a exit poll, the results will be slow to come. Unless things have changed, states operate under their own timetables to release results, and some wait until everything is counted. Buhari did not 'win' until a few days after polls closed - mainly cause the large Southern urban states were the slowest counters.

[Oryxslayer]

Watching the election commission press conference gave me the impression that they had never heard of something called excel.  There seem to be massive delays in results and the media roasts the election commission.

I warned you about expecting fast results. Lots of the rural area don't have reliable internet, so it may be a case of having to do things slow in those regions.

[Oryxslayer]

What would be the difference between the three main candidates, in practice?

I think Obi of LP is more left-wing while the other candidates are from the Right.  Of course, ideology does not matter.  Identity does.  The way the Northwest voted (Obi <1%) says exactly what they think of Igos.

Yeah, you have two main divides here: Mainstream religious denomination  - Christian v Islam with syncretic and local faiths in the mix,  and main ethnic group - Hausa Fulani, Kanuri, Yoruba, and the multitude of Igbo groups, as well as many smaller groups.

There are two traditional parties, APC and PDP. PDP services the Christians and southern groups more, APC the Muslims and the northern Groups. However, there usually has been a rotation in religion and regionality of the candidates between cycles so the bases don't solely produce the candidates. APC this time has a Yoruba SW Muslim as their presidential candidate with a North Muslim as VP, PDP has a Central Muslim with a Southern Chrirstian as VP. Obi is a former PDP'er but broke with them complaining of internal corruption and has coopted the LP ticket. He is a SE Igbo Christian with a Northern Muslim partner for VP.

So one way to look at it is that the unpopular APC government is turning so many people off right now that there is space for two PDP candidates. While runoff transfers may not be 1 to 1, especially if Abubakar and the PDP make the runoff in regards to SW turnout, both would probably win such a contest.

[Oryxslayer]

The first South Eastern state to fully report (Enugu) has Obi getting 94% of the vote (456k turnout).

The key here is about 50k more voters than 2019. Last time it looked like a close contest until we saw data from the SE and it was clear voter turnout plummeted, guaranteeing Buhari victory.