2021 Canadian general election - Election Day and Results

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/2closetocall/status/1440120523501957128?s=20

Makes the call by some in St. John east a bit premature.

[Oryxslayer]

Mirimachi is the big question mark right now, cause we know this seat is basically a safe tory and safe liberal area glued together, so its more turnout than swing. And where the polls are reporting matters in that regard.

EDIT: and it flipped blue.


Cons called for 3 flips, could still get 4 more and hit the benchmark, but if O'Toole wanted a confident majority he probably needed a bit better. Will be tight.

[Oryxslayer]

CBC calls Saint John for the Libs so CPC+5 in Atlantic is the likeliest result now. Both parties are theoretically hitting their CBC benchmarks, but I think O'Toole wanted better.


And by the way, it's showtime.

[Oryxslayer]

2.5 hour line in Spadina-Fort York poll, so that's another reason why the urban areas are going slower.

[Oryxslayer]

First poll in Edmonton center is a Lib lead of 4 voters with a total of about 200. Real story though is PPC at 2%. Compared to the 7-9% in rural Manitoba, theres looking like a regional split in the Tories favor/Lib+NDP's disadvantage.

[Oryxslayer]

One thing to note from the far north is that it's pretty obvious that the First Nation reservation vote is coming in fast because of the large NDP leads. That's why things appear to go quickly compared to other 1-pll ridings.

[Oryxslayer]

The fastest seat to count from the drop was Mégantic-L'Érable and is called as a Con hold.

Jennifer Sloan is getting 4% in Hastings-Lennox and Addington lol.

[Oryxslayer]

CTV says Liberals largest party off the single polls.

[Oryxslayer]

CBC says Liberal government.

[Oryxslayer]

CTV projects minority. Looks like a smaller minority.

[Oryxslayer]

Don't look now, but Annamie Paul is in 4th and CBC calls Conservatives to hold Beauce.

[Oryxslayer]

Peterborough-Kawartha looks like it is going to lose it's bellwether status thanks to Liberal incumbent Maryam Monsef's controversial statements.

[Oryxslayer]

So did reform cost the Tories or not really given they are at 5%

If you assume that all PPC votes go CPC, a fallacious one, then there are at best only a handful of seats that could change hands. Most their margin can from safe blue prairies.

[Oryxslayer]

Torys are gaining ground in rural/smalltown Ontario, losing ground in suburbs. #Trends I guess, which is both disappointing and interesting. It's early, but it appears to also have occurred in Vancouver.

[Oryxslayer]

Erin O'Toole should be fired immediately.

Trudeau is more popular than 2019 despite the bad election call since he led Canada through the pandemic relatively well. This should have been a Liberal majority and O'Toole moving the party to the centre must be part of why it wasn't. I do empathise with the Tories that are furious at Bernier, he likely didn't make the difference but those anti-vax idiots still gave Trudeau a helping hand.

Just gonna take issue with the popularity thing - he was popular thanks to COVID and then polls found the approvals collapsed precipitously during this campaign. Both major leaders were really only liked by their partisans in the final polls.

[Oryxslayer]

Why don't they call COB-CND riding for Small yet? Only 1 poll is still not reporting and Small holds a 2% lead.

Mail votes, though the lead looks large enough to stick.

[Oryxslayer]

Wow, did the Canada thread crash the site? lol

[Oryxslayer]

What a grand waste of everyone's time and money Justin.

Not true, Ruth Ellen is leading in Berthier—Maskinongé

195/274 precincts

REB 36%
BQ’s candidate 33%
Margin: 900 votes

So far, she’s still leading 🧡

REB's lead is now down to 238 votes with 231/274 precincts reporting.

It’s down to 42 votes now with 262/274 reporting. It had been up and then it went down as I typed it and had to erase.

Apparently some sites are calling it for her cause of the mail vote.

[Oryxslayer]

I think the slowest counting riding right now is King-Vaughan in the 905, which flipped blue while we were down. Would be a lol moment that the cons lose two York seats but flip one.

[Oryxslayer]

Quite a pathetic result for the NDP. A review on his leadership and electoral strategy needs to held.

REB for leadership

EDIT: she's down by 200+ now

[Oryxslayer]

Ok Question time: Liberals look like they really gained with the Chinese - both Hong Kong and Mainland - vote which allowed him to get seats in new areas, some not won in 2015. There is one seemingly obvious thing one might obviously attribute this to: the same culture we saw in California's Vietnamese where you want stability in a crisis. Anything else one can think of? I'm no judge of whether the relationship with the homeland is positive or not, so people might like or disapprove of any hawkish moves.

[Oryxslayer]

Ouch

https://twitter.com/maxfawcett/status/1440180182711562246?s=20

I frankly think the knifes will be out for everyone except Blanchet after tonight, cause they all are taking Ls. Different times of course though. Trudeau after a crisis he fumbles, O'Toole soon but he might survive, Singh should but he might not without any obvious stars to challenge, and Paul duh.

[Oryxslayer]

Have the Liberals won most of the squeakers again?

Not really, plenty of Tory squeakers this time. In fact there are more squeakers, which may be why the CPC vote lead goes up despite going down in the safe seats - they closed the gap in good areas and won some seats, but lost many more.

[Oryxslayer]

Singh should of course go, after two disastrous elections in a row now, but there is nothing NDP voters love more than losing while feeling superior about themselves, so they will of course keep him.

I'm thankfully seeing a lot of disappointment in the NDP on twitter so Singh may actually get the knife he deserves. People are pointing out how he's far and away the most popular leader, how he burned so much cash, and how he had all the issues in his back pocket yet treaded water. +3 is meh, but it's still a very rosy way of looking at it cause of Spadina-Fort York and the lack of REB - as many are noting.

The problem of course is that there is no obvious candidate with star appeal to take over the helm.

[Oryxslayer]

So here's my takes:

-Trudeau failed. Not because he didn't get his majority, but because I don't think he ever could have got his majority. The two best points were right after the writ dropped and perhaps a week off in the future. However the Liberals were already on the decline during that first week cause of Afghanistan and the Conservative platform, and saying that the polls were moving in the Lib direction at the end of the campaign is ignoring the largely-stagnant weekly polls for the volatile daily trackers - some who were way off again. Therefore Trudeau risked it all to spin a wheel that had plenty of "Tory Victory" outcomes and very few "Lib majority" ones. That's a bad gamble.

-O'Toole is in a poor place personally, but I think he has left the party in potentially a better place. Firstly, right now the PPC should not got 100% to the Conservatives if removed from circulation - we got plenty of anti-vaxxers in there from across the spectrum, including former Atlantic greens. Only a bit of their vote is disgruntled Conservatives, especially on the plains. Unless we assume the likely scenario is all anti-vaxxers migrate to Con without the PPC (a potential USA-incentivized hypothetical) then the Tories only lost a few seats to vote splits.

Instead of prairie over-domination like last election, the Conservatives now I think have a path to a minority government without winning more than a handful of seats in the 905 - something valuable if we believe in #Trends. However, to actually get a sizable win the Tories still need the suburbs, and after this election I wonder what can work, if anything, to make these seats flip blue. A total incumbent government failure like mass corruption or economic collapse are the easy ones, but that is beyond their control. This is the legacy of all recent Tory's piled on one another, and it is one they have to either confront or find a way around.

-The NDP failed and Singh should be held responsible. They right now are on +1 for the night, which still could change depending on Toronto mail votes, but that is absolutely horrible. The party sold the farm to run a national whistle-stop campaign and got nothing. He's the most popular leader on paper! The NDP won't even win the two scandal seats! In fact all three present gains came more from other parties failures than Orange success. Unless downtown Toronto flips in the mail ballots then all of Singh's online activism won't even reap dividends among the youth. The NDP are not going back to 2011 but they need a proverbial "killer" who isn't content with less than 10% of the chamber.

Greens need to get all their s**t in order. PPC needs to abandon the national campaign for a western-only one (modern reform?) if it wants to grow, win seats, and perhaps push the Tories around. Bloc is the only one doing "fine" but this campaign showed there are plenty of intense non-separatist faultlines between the province and Ottawa.