CA GOV 2021 - 2022 megathread

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/VanceUlrich/status/1438935966803062784?s=20

Only the most demographically concentrated areas are highlighted and analyzed, but you can see the overflow in surrounding precincts not dominated by one group.

[Oryxslayer]

Regarding OC

If newsom significantly overperformed Biden in ethnic areas, and “No” is winning the county by 4-5, where did he underperform Biden?

South OC?

Turnout discrepancies. Newsom's doing much better in minority towns but those towns have a lower % of the vote. The white areas are therefore a higher percentage. The trend in these are even or slightly backwards from 2020. But the bigger impact is that the white towns have a lower starting Democratic baseline, so increasing their relative turnout drops the overall topline.

https://twitter.com/cinyc9/status/1438954559465009156?s=20

[Oryxslayer]

Sorry for asking again, but is there a Twitter user who has put up the city by city vote totals yet?

Here you go, but these are a day or two old so don't have those added votes calculated.

[Oryxslayer]

This just wasn't a terribly impressive showing for Rs, there's no way around it. Even the rural places they improved in like Fresno, Merced, Stanislaus had fewer voters than 2018 while Orange had more. A lot of the GOP Hispanic improvement on the edges is just off-year turnout differences common to Cali elections.

yeah this is what we need to remember. If there's a reason OC voted to the left of the Inland Empire it was because the latter's Dem base is almost entirely Hispanic, so poor turnout like in the valley flips counties and sometimes districts without flipping voters.

[Oryxslayer]

This just wasn't a terribly impressive showing for Rs, there's no way around it. Even the rural places they improved in like Fresno, Merced, Stanislaus had fewer voters than 2018 while Orange had more. A lot of the GOP Hispanic improvement on the edges is just off-year turnout differences common to Cali elections.

yeah this is what we need to remember. If there's a reason OC voted to the left of the Inland Empire it was because the latter's Dem base is almost entirely Hispanic, so poor turnout like in the valley flips counties and sometimes districts without flipping voters.

Denial is beautiful. Anyone remember Oryxslayer's thoughts on South Texas in the 2020 election?

Are you explicitly referencing something here? Cause I have some very unique views on South Texas. Namely, that as dem primary turnout increasing across the nation in 2020: urban areas, rural areas, minority areas, whites areas - some areas did not increase. Exponential increases are to be expected given the increase in candidates, competition, and just party polarization in general increasing what in Electoral behavior is referred to as 'low-effort political participation activities' like voting.

South Texas primary turnout did not increase at all or barely did. It suggests that the national turnout increase did occur, but that a number of voters decided they no longer wanted to participate in the primary process from 2016. Looking back further, we see Beto doing worse in south Texas than Clinton. This suggests a older trend.

I don't know what there is to say about turnout. You can go onto a county website, download a precinct csv, and see that there are 20% dropoffs between white GOP areas and Dem Hispanic ones. Unfortunately this is normal for Dem parties across the southwest in off-cycles, see TX SD-19 and TX-06 for another example. What we have seen in most post-2020 elections - NM-01, GA runoffs, now CA - is large turnout drops in Hispanic areas and the overall topline returning to as Dem as previously. What this means for the future, I dunno, but I will say that these places did not have South Texas's foreshadowing.


I'm sure you were not expecting this response but I have literally written 6K+ words on the TX2020 election results for DDHQ, another 2K on CA25 at various points, probably another 6K on the recall over these months, and a lot on special elections. The links in the bio, though you may not see everything cause a bunch goes in the newsletter. And I analyze precinct and ethnic data for a living. So nice attempt at a gotcha.

[Oryxslayer]

Imperial county has finished all counting .

Yes to recall crossed 40%

The county is 90%+ hispanic, so it's a good proxy on latino vote state-wide.

It also had 34.5% turnout compared to the 57.2% state presently overall and 65%+ in whiter areas both D and R. This turnout was 14% worse than 2018, despite the state slightly undershooting 2018. So yes, a very good proxy of Latino mood - though I could have told you a year ago that Southwest Latino turnout plummets in non-presidential and even harder when its not November.

[Oryxslayer]

Aside from Industry*, there were none of these cities. Not sure what’s going on with Industry because in 2018, there were 2,255 votes cast for Governor while in 2021, there were only 59?!?! Any of our California avatars care to explain why this is?

Industry's local politics are F'in disconcerting and weird - thats the only way to describe it. Do a bit of research and a bunch of oddities come to the surface. I'm sure they are behind such a drop off some how.

[Oryxslayer]

Dahle is still in and the only Republican with name recognition in the race.

The state GOP has basically been emasculated by the recall, at least for 2022. Do a bit of digging and you'll find articles to describing how they halfheartedly are looking far down the ballot for targets and defenses. It's weirdly would be one of the best times for a primary challenge - as I theorized during the recall since the state GOP would be out of steam, the challenger could have a shot at the second runoff slot - but Dahle is the only non-Newsom candidate from any party with any seriousness.