NYC Mayor/2021 Megathread

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/BOENYC/status/1410691698926174208?s=20

Bad news for Adams, and Wasserman's theory if he was still committed to it in any capacity.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/cfdev/status/1410983848020627459?s=20

Round 6 (Big 3 + Yang) estimation



Round 7 (Big 3) estimation



Round 8 (Garcia v Adams) estimation

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/Jonesieman/status/1411037446268243978?s=20

Not everything is doom and gloom.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/HenryRosoff/status/1411062703548993539?s=20

Pray for efficiency, but expect the expectable.

[Oryxslayer]

NYC BOE has updated the RCV site with non-absentee projections for the offices of Borough Presidents and City Council.

The estimated final RCV rounds of Democratic Borough Presidential races subject to RCV:

Queens President: 51.1% Richards, 48.9% Crowley

Bronx President: 53% Gibson, 47% Cabrera

Brooklyn President: 55.3% Reynoso, 44.7% Simon

Manhattan President: 54.4% Levine, 45.6% Hoylman  

Staten Island President: 65.4% Murphy, 34.6% Honor


I would love it if someone more in the know than myself could go through all the city council projections that are now up there. These races are more interesting, but arguably require more background info.

https://twitter.com/cinyc9/status/1411149307345051656?s=20

Fossella in a close AF race that will be decided by absentees.

https://twitter.com/BenJ_Rosenblatt/status/1411152076185509888?s=20

[Oryxslayer]

There's this spin going around from the Adams campaign (which some have bought) that their campaign watchers say Adams is on track to net votes from first preference absentees. But Adams would almost always net votes. It would have to be a huge divergence from the E-Day first round results to have anyone else come in first in Absentees. What matters of course is under/overperformance, and Garcia seems to be overperforming by enough.

[Oryxslayer]

Betting odds are now Adams 64%, Garcia 24%.

I will LOVE if Garcia wins and the betting markets are proven ridiculous after all (though they also had Susan Rice as the #1 pick for VP the day Kamala was announced, so..)

Buy some Garcia then. I personally view them as fronts for pure speculation, with most of the investor profits coming from short-term market flux rather than holding onto shares for eventual payout. The pump-and-dump nature of these sites basically means nobody can be taken at face value...and hell a good check of Adams buyers right now could just be holding until the news cycle changes when they dump for Garcia.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/ndhapple/status/1412467219024560133?s=20

So add a MOE of ~3,700 to whatever is released today. Reminder some mail ballots will exhaust for a variety of reasons, so there will not be 120K Adams vs Garcia votes.

[Oryxslayer]

So .. when are we expecting results?

Could be in 2 seconds, could be in 2 hours.

But when will we get the results that are the actual real results and not the fair real results with the bogus ballots?? ^(/s)

Next week, when we discover the three warehouses of uncounted Paperboy Prince votes.

[Oryxslayer]

Ranked choice is looking like a failure for NYC....

I really did not understand it at all.....

Does it work well in Maine?

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1412473215478341635?s=20

Don't like quoting Dave, especially since he's shifting blame here from the fact that he played a part of sowing doubt in the system, but its a good enough response for a Bronz-post.

[Oryxslayer]

BOW has updated. Adams lead of about 8500.

Clear Garcia lead of 10K over Wiley on round 7. Richards leads by 1K in Queens President race, Fossela by 300 in GOP Staten Island President race.

[Oryxslayer]

So where did adamsvictory Coalition come from? The only electoral Maps I've seen show the results with five contenders still in the race, where Adams was leading all the boroughs except Manhattan where Garcia was ahead. It was a very close final-round obviously. Where did Adams construct his winning coalition to win the final round against what in a normal election year would have been a splintered left-wing? Black voters, strong home field advantage in Brooklyn oh, and....? I heard he had some reasonable support of some Orthodox groups, but you would think that plus African American votes, unless he was winning by Obama level margins, wouldn't have been enough to squeak out 50% plus one in the fight round. Did he do well in non-black and Orthodox portions of Brooklyn? How did the Latino vote ultimately go, at least in the final rounds?

No idea is the answer to most of these questions. NYC has only realeased breakdowns of the vote counted on E-day, and that was just usual tabulation. RCV has not been broken down by borough or precinct.

However, there have been models/projections based on citywide RCV transfers. Adams won Bronx, Queens, and Brooklyn on the final ballot. Adams coalition was mainly Hispanics (low turnout) and African Americans. Garcia wins whiter and affluent areas across the city. Everything else is unclear. Garcia's coalition seems to be bigger, especially in a off-year environment, but a lot of the progressive vote exhausted before the final round.

[Oryxslayer]

Did they ever release precinct results for the final round?

Nope. Will they? The sites layout seems to suggest eventually, since we got precinct breakdowns for every race without RCV, but who knows.

[Oryxslayer]

Serious question: do these elections still operate under the month-long counting process that haunted NY in 2020? Cause there's a good number of mayoral and commissioner races in outlying counties that are uncallible if so.

EDIT: Yes change this NY

https://twitter.com/SR_spatial/status/1455736792842448901?s=20