2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Minnesota (user search)
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  2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Minnesota (search mode)
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Author Topic: 2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Minnesota  (Read 41592 times)
Oryxslayer
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« on: May 22, 2020, 07:59:06 PM »


Sadly I don't know exactly where she lives in the city.

She repp'ed State House 60b which is the NE corner across the Mississippi River. That's all you should need.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1 on: November 20, 2021, 02:37:46 PM »
« Edited: November 20, 2021, 06:34:07 PM by Oryxslayer »

It's possible to draw a 5-3 map if you draw a district that hugs the Wisconsin border and connects Duluth to parts of the metro (and possibly even Rochester), but the redistricting panel is not going to draw such a map.

You can alternatively cut the current MN-03 in two and add Rochester + the remainder of Anoka to the the current metro muti-district grouping. Obviously one of the five would be competitive but that's what happens when you can't slice the cities. Not losing a congressional seat doesn't change the fact that the 3 outlying districts need to gain pop - over 100K. The 4 inner will shrink, which could make room for a fifth. Here's a quickly whipped up variant that favors the Ds.



But I doubt we'll get any drastic changes like this and probably just more of the same.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #2 on: November 20, 2021, 06:44:43 PM »
« Edited: November 20, 2021, 06:49:02 PM by Oryxslayer »

It's possible to draw a 5-3 map if you draw a district that hugs the Wisconsin border and connects Duluth to parts of the metro (and possibly even Rochester), but the redistricting panel is not going to draw such a map.

You can alternatively cut the current MN-03 in two and add Rochester + the remainder of Anoka to the the current metro multi-district grouping. Obviously one of the five would be competitive but that's what happens when you can't slice the cities. Not losing a congressional seat doesn't change the fact that the 3 outlying districts need to gain pop - over 100K. The 4 inner will shrink, which could make room for a fifth. Here's a quickly whipped up variant that favors the Ds.



But I doubt we'll get any drastic changes like this and probably just more of the same.

If you mean Anoka by "Ankona" that's already in metro-based districts, but not the second (and it's nowhere near there.)

I don't think that map is particularly great for the DFL, the teal district might've voted for Biden but it wouldn't hold in any even mildly R-leaning year and that's not even a particularly safe district for Craig since it also threw in a bunch of Republican rural counties as well and cut out some of the more Democratic areas in Dakota County. The best way for a solid 5-3 is add Rochester to the 2nd as you did, add Mankato to the 3rd, and allow some other very D suburbs in it to be shifted elsewhere, and then create a Duluth to Washington/Ramsey counties district with some pretty Democratic inner suburbs while putting more Republican ones in the 4th and drowning them with St. Paul. But no way an independent panel is going to draw that, especially since they seem to pride themselves on mostly non-partisan maps and that's what everyone in their "listening tour" is begging for.

Of course the way to do it if you were wanting to gerry is get the NE corner involved, but if one is aiming for neatness, defensible COIs, as well as fairness, they you can't do anything drastic like that or pair the cities with red turf. Eggs would need to be broken and only one seat should reach outwards if one is observing those rules. This wasn't a laser-eyes Dem map, this was just showing you can get 4 reliably Dem seats - the two North/West suburban seats are both essentially the same 3 points more Dem then the state partisan-wise for all recent elections - plus a fifth D leaning one without any of: the northern arm, Rurban links, or multiple seats reaching outside of the metro. All those things would be obvious gerrymanders.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #3 on: February 15, 2022, 02:44:37 PM »

Wow


MN02 actually flips to a Romney seat in 2012.

Flashback to when MN-01 and MN-08 were better for Dems than MN-02 and MN-03.
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