2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Missouri

[Oryxslayer]

SNIP

If this route - leave the KC seat, pack St. Louis seat even more, swap suburban counties around so Wagner is fortified - is pursued, it brings with it a new question: how will KS-05 change? There is no longer a need for the Skelton arm eastward. There is no need to pack Dems from the other two counties - the surrounding seats are already very red and not going to get blue - but the arm is unnecessary and removing it will have little overall impact. Would the district become mainly Jackson county or would it focus on maintaining the unity of Kansas city and take in the major parts from the counties to the north...

[Oryxslayer]

My thoughts on what a 6-2 Missouri map will probably look like:

snip

Wouldn't Republicans want to at least shore up the 2nd district by more than that? Trump+7 is not exactly a safe district even if it'd be a heavy lift for Dems.

There's also an argument - probably to be decided by who the legislature prefers to replace Hartzler and where their base is - that the Kansas city seat should be built around the city and itself and it's pieces in 3 or 4 counties, rather than the county of Jackson.

[Oryxslayer]

gives all incumbents their home

Reminder that Hartzler and Long are running for senate and the Leg no doubt has preferred replacements for both seats, which will therefore influence the final product.

[Oryxslayer]

If so, there appears to have been some favoritism for the Columbia region in the open 4th.

[Oryxslayer]

MO-02 is probably competative in a Republican midterm.

It's somewhere from Trump+5 to +8 with close to 50-50 in the 2018 senate race, we would need a zoom to get the exact numbers. Obviously as people noted Wagner wouldn't have wanted a tentacle into rurals, but it feels like there is opportunity left on the table given how other uber-R south suburban counties are still in MO-03. Luetkemeyer appears to have done an inverse of the MD Dems and used his influence to ensure no parts of St. Louis county got added.

[Oryxslayer]

Other individual images can be found here.   Which therefore puts it around Trump+4.5, Hawley+1.2.

[Oryxslayer]

Even though MO-02 might be vulnerable later in the decade, I don't really blame Wagner for not wanting to go into the rural areas. Rural Missouri is just completely Trumpified and she probably doesn't need the MAGA lunatics sending her death threats for being a "RINO".

In any case, her base has always been the wealthy suburbanites. And while the district may be trending blue, it's not exactly doing so at the speed of Atlanta or Austin.

Plus it's not like she's a bad candidate. She did outperform Trump by 6 points despite being targeted heavily.

Her district actually swung further left from '16 to '20 than TX-10, TX-21, TX-25 - and swung about the same as TX-31. True, MO-2 did move slightly less to the left than GA-6, and GA-7, but that's pretty a pretty ing low bar to clear.

Had MO-2 taken all of St. Charles County (which is very suburban and affluent), and jettisoned some South County suburbs (which are not at all affluent, and are exactly the sort of WWC voters she apparently disliked) that would give her district another 2-3 points of padding.

Or alternatively add in Jefferson or Franklin, though those would require changes to the 3rd which others may not have desired. There's a lot of GOP suburban voters here being left on the table that could have been added while not rural-ifying the seat.

[Oryxslayer]

Alright - we have a DRA link now:

https://twitter.com/Missouri_Mapper/status/1476810221750214687

Is this map pretty much a done deal or is it likely to be altered a bunch before passing?

Unless Governor Parson calls a concurrent special session imminently, it seems like the process could be subject to a lot of shenanigans from people trying to advance their parochial concerns. The Senate GOP can only afford to lose one vote, so unless they rely on Democrats, two Republicans can hold up the entire map.

One area to look at will be St. Charles. The two State Senators representing the county are going to be pissed and they could conceivably get the Senate Conservative Caucus to try to force a map change.

Perhaps that is another reason why the map appears "too good" for the Dems. Just get some votes from the blue team by threatening something potentially much worse in order to pass a map that benefits specific incumbents and legislators over the heads of other legislators.

[Oryxslayer]

Another member of Missouri Conservative Caucus has came out against the map. As it stands, the map can no longer pass without Democratic votes:

I'm ready for the GOP Insider - Democrat coalition.

[Oryxslayer]

Billy Long of the 7th district supports 7-1:

https://twitter.com/auctnr1/status/1479442040844955650

I think this is the first comment on the matter from a member of the GOP congressional delegation.

Except he isn't  a member anymore,  his district is one of several the leg is playing with to benefit their own candidates as successors.  With this in mind, his statement seems like one to curry favor in the senate primary,  not a statement born out of desires to see "his" seat redrawn.

[Oryxslayer]

I honestly, have no idea why that wasn't done in the initial plan, other than Wagner wanting more of St. Louis County. And yeah, given the stated desires of St. Charles legislators to keep the county whole, it probably passes unless there's a significant contingent of Republicans who are all-or-nothing for the first plan.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/Missouri_Mapper/status/1483553784521531400?s=20\

Found this interesting.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/RedistrictNet/status/1485756192924307459?s=20

The House map might have passed successfully, but the senate map did not.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/K_Schallhorn/status/1491046227579785218?s=20&t=YfSCbMCPR...

Even though this shores up MO-02, is still cuts St. Charles Lol.

[Oryxslayer]

The house seems pretty set on having Jefferson County in 3, though.

https://twitter.com/missouri_mapper/status/1489242013480402946?s=21

Yeah, this is going to be a big issue during conference committee. This process isn't done by a longshot.

That and the St. Charles split. Also, a St. Louis 3 way split. 

If I were Republicans I’d draw MO-2 like this.
https://davesredistricting.org/join/34e9703f-f07b-4352-b779-53e163934516

It’s Trump+11.5, has all of St. Charles, keeps Jefferson in 3, has no rurals, and has no 3-way split of St. Louis County. It would probably please everyone.

Except you have encircled 172K more people than necessary in MO-01 and left little room for another seat to snake in and grab it. Now this is still the obvious solution, we have all seen it, it just involves MO-03 taking in south St. Louis County via Jefferson.

[Oryxslayer]

And so we see that the Dem's are fine voting for these 6-2/5-2-1 maps, they just won't say so publicly and will let the GOP waste ink and time.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/EmilyManleyTV/status/1491184704996978691?s=20&t=b0BZ_8Uo...

Appears to be some procedural confusion.

[Oryxslayer]

https://www.kansascity.com/news/state/missouri/article258220283.html

Republican Sen. Mike Bernskoetter, chairman of the Senate's redistricting committee, said passing a 7-1 GOP map wouldn't reflect the political makeup of the state. He equated it to cheating in baseball, adding: “We're not beating the Democrats with our best pitch, we're taking the bat away from them.”

Lol, as if this is going to convince the Conservative Caucus to stop filibustering.

Republican leadership in MO is so adorable. They're concerned about fairness.

L O L. Imagine thinking this fight is about fairness. It's not whatsoever about fairness, cause then there would be a even more marginal MO-02. No, this is about the balance between drawing a horrendous 7-1 Gerrymander that would involve doing things to KC that would result in timely and costly lawsuits, or not and end up with a 6-2 map. It would be the leadership who would have to go to court under such a suit. Everywhere that has gerrymandered on both sides of the isle is in court right now, and even if you expect victory, that is a process some who are not familiar with it prefer not to engage with. Or there's Florida, where the Senate leadership would prefer to not repeat last decades trials.

Reminder that redistricting is not a game of maximum laser-eyed potential, it a juggling contest where you are trying to balance expansion of power with every other interest and actor.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/RedistrictNet/status/1503377543155666945?s=20&t=EKRoRKwZ...

MO senate map. legislature has adjourned until March 21.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/scottfaughn/status/1506974490055614469?s=20&t=m7SqxO1-V6...

Supposedly the compromise. Wagner gonna be mad.

It appears there might be a deal at hand for the congressional map:

Apparently with Jefferson County in the 8th?

What broke the impasse?

Time. Filing deadline's next week and if there wasn't a map then good chance of court intervention by necessity and all the GOP plans get spoiled.

[Oryxslayer]

This is a very ugly map for seemingly no reason or benefit to anyone.

https://twitter.com/seanschuerman/status/1507071314405863431?s=20&t=m7SqxO1-...

Apparently one beneficiary was the new primary challenger to Cori Bush. Ahh, good old ratF***ing the other primary. Which is maybe why a few Dems gave their consent to this - though GOP unity provided enough votes on its own.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/MOLegDems/status/1508886875829899266

Awesome. Why would we want this clown show to ever end?

The move was successful. Why would we get off Mr. Bone's Missouri's wild ride?

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/RedistrictNet/status/1508899676187209728?s=20&t=HQ7APTrt...

Why would we get off Mr. Bone's Missouri's wild ride?

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/Tessa_Weinberg/status/1521291810190114818?s=20&t=d4BUuAC...

This would be a true least change map in regards to MO-02...