Super Tuesday Results Thread

[Oryxslayer]

BTW mods/OP, we are probably going to need a part 2 thread to be waiting in the wings.

[Oryxslayer]

Are they going to release all the exit polls combined together or do a state by state release at 5pm on air?

We won't get the toplines from any state until the polls close in that state.  But as for other exit poll info, again, the exit pollsters share their early date with the media at 5pm Eastern, so some time in ~5:05-5:15, we'll get *something*, either demographics, or what % of voters are angry or whatever.  On questions like the latter, they might release Super Tuesday-wide figures rather than breaking it down by state.  For demographics though, they tend to go state by state.  But based on four years ago, these dribble out a bit at a time, and in the 5pm hour will presumably only cover East Coast states with the earliest poll closing times.

Well, there's always American Samoa if you need to sate your election fix before 7pm est.

[Oryxslayer]

Is there a Republican primary in Utah too?

Yes, and it's closed and traditionally dominated by the Mormon GOP - in contrast to the radical state conventions. Therefore, Utah may be the West Virginia of 2020 where Trump ends up in a close race with his token competitors if enough of his dissaprovers turn up.

[Oryxslayer]

Well, considering two candidates dropped in the past two days, a large slice of the electorate would have been left stranded. So this says very other than people have had to re-align to other campaigns. In VA though this would be larger, since the entire state apparatus appeared to go for Biden this weekend, along with Biden proving himself to AA voters after SC.

I'm more interested in the low defeat trump vs on the Issues margin. The only time it was this low was in SC - the whiter contests had high defeat trump scores. That's what points to a Biden landslife in VA for me.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/Meniscus_cree/status/1234964761848111104

https://twitter.com/ManojMate/status/1234964913094721536

Caucus?

[Oryxslayer]

Maine and MA from CNN:


For main issue, Health Care  47 and 40, Climate change around 25 in both.

72% for Govt Plan for Health In Maine, larger than other Bernie wins.

Only 54% support govt plan in Mass...bad for Bernie? Well, maybe not, Mass has a long history of experience with Health Care experiments.

[Oryxslayer]

Both VA and NC have 60-30ish White/AA divides according to CNN

VA only has 20% identifying as very liberal. NC 24%. NC though has more somewhat liberals, and also 12% saying they are Conservatives - aka the Dixiecrats.

[Oryxslayer]

Looking ahead to TX:

https://twitter.com/CBS11Andrea/status/1234957020350107648

[Oryxslayer]

Alabama only is around 50% angry at Trump, but Maine is at 79%. As you go further north, dissatisfaction goes down and anger goes up.

[Oryxslayer]

Atlas coming to conclusions using a handful of election polls at 5 PM again I see.

It wouldn't be Atlas if this didn't happen.

https://twitter.com/USA_Polling/status/1234972924055965696

Looks like it's actually the Bloomberg Bros we should be complaining about!

I would expect this is more because Bloomberg, as predicted by polls, is the parking spot for registered Democrats who safely vote GOP. Essentially the dixiecrats in AR, TN, NC, and OK. So everyone is happy to vote blue no matter who  if they are a democrat. 

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/USPoliticsPoll/status/1234975061091635200

Not particularly useful if you ask me. Younger voters tend to vote later.

Especially since CA makes these things weird with its long voting period and Pacific Standard Time.

[Oryxslayer]

Any word on American Samoa?

Doors are closed, candidates/teams have given tele-speeches or prewritten statements. We would probably only learn about said results via tweet or presser.

[Oryxslayer]

CNN

TX: 44 White, 32 hispanic, 20 AA.
MN: 87 White, 5 AA, 4 Hispanic

TX also has a good chunk of moderate/conservatives than MN, but that's because of how minorities park themselves in the Democratic party regardless of beliefs. Sanders did will with NV conservatives/moderates because of the Latino vote.

[Oryxslayer]

Late deciders in Texas:

https://twitter.com/you_trend/status/1234980185541238784

That Bloomberg number is surprising - and I wonder what the time window was for "late deciders".

Yeah, I would say that if anything these two TX polling points look like the state is going to be tight as expected. Biden's not sweeping late deciders, but how big is the window? Theres a large Hispanic vote that hasn't dropped off, but how much will Bernie dominate that vote? The white vote is large, but how much of that is Austin?

[Oryxslayer]

TX: 44 White, 32 hispanic, 20 AA.
MN: 87 White, 5 AA, 4 Hispanic

TX also has a good chunk of moderate/conservatives than MN, but that's because of how minorities park themselves in the Democratic party regardless of beliefs. Sanders did will with NV conservatives/moderates because of the Latino vote.

That's the kind of hispanic turnout we want to have a shot in Texas.

It's the same as 2016. Black and White % are both up 1.

Exactly. I was worried it'd be lower.

Ah, I assumed the number would be higher and the black number lower.

Well, the numbers will probably change some as the night goes on but it basically looks the racial composition will be very similar to 2016. I'll take it.

May I ask why we are all ignoring the early vote in Texas?

From what I had heard hadnt early voting surpassed 2016 total of the entire texas dem primary?

This would include the early vote. The first waves of exit poll include the early vote. It's why we have Colorado numbers.

How are we getting exit data from early votes?

You do a large traditional poll but add a filter question 'have you voted yet?'

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/1234984979911733249

Merged Exit Polls so less useful.

[Oryxslayer]

Colorado looking good for Bernie/Warren - 23% saying Income Inequality is their largest issue is the highest I have seen that issue so far. 49% also say economy needs a complete overhaul, which is only interesting since the state isn't southern, so this one is solely Progressive rather than AA's + Radicals.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/ActorAaronBooth/status/1234987239999819776

Let's see what happens.

[Oryxslayer]

Will we get the first results at exactly 7 PM or do we need to wait a bit more for the first release?

Can't speak on Vermont, but first Virginia results usually come at 7:10ish.

I wouldn't not be surprised if Virginia get's auto-called, potentially even Vermont even though there are only limited exit polls.

[Oryxslayer]

CNN just said NC is also holding back their results by 30 minutes, because there was a a 30min extension in a few precincts. Since it's a multi-party primary, state policy applies and state policy is a reuslts embargo until everyone has closed their polls. So nothing at 7:30, then a bomb gets dropped at 8 since everyone was counting for 30 minutes.

[Oryxslayer]

Virginia showed signed of hyper-consolidation when compared to NC earlier, because the entire state Democratic machine backed him yesterday. Also the VA suburbs and how they are in tune with the political news. So will it be repeated elsewhere? Only maybe...

Also Bloomberg only has 11%.

[Oryxslayer]

Looks like Warren will pass the threshold in Vermont, so Sanders won't Sweep.

[Oryxslayer]

Progressives in 2024 (should Bernie lose) need a candidate that can better appeal to black voters.

Well, can't fault you for trying. Unfortunately, Gillium and Abrams lost so you guys gotta start from square one. But the progressive movement needs to realize that often in America the true working class, the people behind the McDonalds register or mopping the floor, are African Americans and need to be recognized as African Americans.

[Oryxslayer]

Half of Oklahoma voters decided in the last few days. Much less than that in tennesee, 38% I think, decided in that time frame.

[Oryxslayer]

Mini-meltdown going on at TYT.

TYT?

The Young Turks, Cenk's weird left-media outlet that will be melting down by more when he comes in last in his primary.