U.S. House Redistricting 2020: Nevada

[Oryxslayer]

Don't say it's impossible until you try . The most  important thing here is actually road connections through the desert, so yes, everything is drive-able. However, such an unholy pairing is only a slight possibility. More likely is that things get shifted around in the LV area so that there are two safe dem seats (unpacking the first) and one competitive clinton seat, rather than one packed clinton seat and two competitive ones.

[Oryxslayer]

What are the odds that the Nevada Dems give Reno to Horsford?

Zero because there's no way that works, population-wise. Although Horsford's district should be able to retract further into Clark County.

Just retracting further into Clark county makes NV-04 relatively safe.  No need to get exotic, a 3-1 Dem map is easy to draw without stretching a district from Vegas suburbs to Reno.

One doesn't need to do the Reno+LV seat, however it makes everything safer. This map has three Clinton seats just like the LV-Reno map I posted above, but their PVIs of D+6.6, D+5.8, and D+0.5 are less secure than the ones above. The two safe seats become less safe, and the competitive seat moves closer to the center.

[Oryxslayer]

Clark County has 73.5% of the state's population as of 2018.   By 2020 it will be on the verge of 74%.   It should almost have three districts to itself by the time the Census comes out.  

All that should be needed to be added to NV-4 (the only district to split Clark) to get the last 1% is the area around Pahrump in Nye county.

I second this

With the 2016 DRA data Clark has about 73%. You have to remember that those counties north of clark are tiny, and most of the rest of the pop outside of Clark is either around Elko, Reno, or Carson City. Those outer counties in the above map really only have 2% of the pop, and are easily ignoble if you pair them with deep blue bits of the  LV suburbs and not redder parts, which I did. Halving the pop needed from outside Clark doesn't change the second map I posted really, since most of the GOP voters you have to work around with are in Clark. Henderson, West/Northwest LV, and Boulder City are the big ones you have to crack up. As you can see, the 1st was unpacked and now takes in parts of these regions instead of just blue communities, and the other two crack the remaining GOP communities up.

[Oryxslayer]

Pardon my ignorance, but Oryx, the Reno district in your map leans Democratic and the one that takes in my of Clark leans Rep, right? What are the numbers?

You mean the first map that connects the cities, right? There is PVI on the image but:

NV01: 55.7/38.7 Clinton, 54.2/37.5 Cortez Masto, 58.1/38 Rosen, 57.2/38 Sisolak, D+7.9 CPVI
NV02: 57.3/35.5 Trump, 57.1/35.6 Heck, 57.2/38.8 Heller, 56.9/38 Laxalt, R+12.1 CPVI
NV03: 48.5/44.3 Clinton, 47.6/43.7 Cortez Masto, 51.3/44.3 Rose, 50/44.3 Sisolak, D+2 CPVI
NV04: 56.4/37.4 Clinton, 55.3/35.8 Cortez Masto, 59/36.5 Rosen, 57.9/36.6 Sisolak, D+9.6 CPVI

[Oryxslayer]

I actually met the last map that splits rural Nevada.

Well, first off the Rurals are tiny. The bigger GOP anchors in the three dem seats are Henderson/Boulder City/West & NW Las Vegas.

NV01 (Green): 54.5/39.9 Clinton, 53.1/38.8 Cortez Masto, 56.9/39.3 Rosen, 56/39.2 Sisolak, D+6.6 CPVI
NV02 (Purple): 52.3/39.4 Trump, 53.2/39.3 Heck, 53.5/42.1 Heller, 53.5/41 Laxalt, R+7.3 CPVI
NV03 (Red): 48/46 Clinton, 47/44.7 Cortez Masto, 51.5/44.5 Rosen, 50.9/44.4 Sisolak, D+0.5 CPVI
NV04 (Yellow): 52.5/41.6 Clinton, 51.6/39.2 Cortez Masto, 54.1/41.2 Rosen, 52.8/40.9 Sisolak, D+5.8 CPVI

[Oryxslayer]

How's this? A 2-2 split.
https://davesredistricting.org/join/4de921d3-037a-460d-86c9-4eacd19079dd

CD-01: D+37 (46% Hispanic, 30% White, 15% Black, 6% Asian)
CD-02: R+12 (69% White, 20% Hispanic, 4% Asian, 2% Black)
CD-03: D+16 (48% White, 26% Hispanic, 14% Asian, 9% Black)
CD-04: R+13 (69% White, 14% Hispanic, 7% Asian, 6% Black)

You posted the wrong map, but I think we all know that the D trifecta won't go for anything near that when they have 3 incumbents to satisfy.

[Oryxslayer]

Nevada

The numerical district totals for all of Nevada’s maps are small. Four Congressional districts, 21 State Senate seats, and 42 State House seats. However, what these small numbers are compensated by a comparatively large number of swing seats. Despite dems holding a supermajority and a near supermajority at the legislative level, the GOP has controlled both chambers as recently as 2014. Dems presently hold three congressional seats to the Republicans one, but it wasn’t that long ago that the positions were reversed. If the Democratic trifecta is given full control over maps, expect this fluidity to decrease.  

Link to 2010 Atlas Discussion

Redistricting History

Nevada picked up its third congressional district in the 2000 apportionment. There previously were only two districts: one in Las Vegas and one in the rest of the state. As Las Vegas boomed, she was going to keep added seats on every level to the metro area. The outlines of Clark’s new power though were uncertain. The Democrats controlled the state assembly, the Republicans controlled the Senate, and Guinn had just picked up the governorship in 1998. This division led to vetoed maps and an intervention from the Nevada courts.

Nevada congressional Districts 2002-2010, Sourced from Wikipedia

The map passed by the special master was unusual. The Las Vegas 1st was packed full of democrats, pairing the city core with the minority-heavy city of North Las Vegas. The 2nd was packed full of GOP areas: rural counties, the rural bits of Clark, and the Reno area which was more republican-favoring at the time. The third was drawn as a competitive seat, but it was one that favored the republicans. GOP suburbs (in 2000) like Henderson dominated the seat, it would take a lot to flip the seat blue.  A lot however happens in a decade. Communities can change, events can flip individuals’ allegiances, and Clark kept on adding more people. John Porter confidently held the seat for 4 years, but he barely held on in 2006. In 2008 he was defeated by Dina Titus in a squeaker, but she lost to Heck by a similarly small margin in 2010.

The hands dealt to the partisan actors were nearly the same as those dealt 10 years previously. Governor Sandoval held the executive office for the Republicans, the Democrats controlled the state assembly, and Nevada had to add a congressional district to Clark. The only difference was in the state senate, which now had a democratic majority of one. The outcome though was predictably the same: vetoes, court intervention, and a special-master drawn map imposed on the state. The maps goals were even similar to those pursued in 2000. The 1st was packed full of urban democrats, the 2nd was packed with as many republicans as possible, and the other two districts were drawn to be as competitive as possible with the given remaining voters.  

Nevada congressional Districts since 2010, Sourced from Wikipedia

Since 2011

The court maps had the goal of encouraging competitive elections in the 3rd and 4th districts. This goal appears to have been successful. The 4th flipped hands twice, and the 3rd flipped hands when Heck retired to run for senate. Even when they didn’t flip, the seats at times had close margins. Nevada still has one more year with their present map and both seats have demonstrated their marginality.  

2021

Let’s start with the assumption that the democrats maintain their trifecta in the Nevada legislature. It is unlikely that democrats lose three of the seven Democratic senate seats up in 2020, but unlikely is not impossible. They are the incumbents defending their seats after all, and the state right now is favored to vote blue presidentially. In the event that the GOP capture the state senate, Nevada will do what she has done the last two times and pass the baton over to the court. Competitive districts and fluid maps have been the goal of the Nevada courts whenever they previously got redistricting authority, and I see no reason why this goal will change.

For now, the democrats have sole power over the pen. Presently, they have three incumbents who desire protection. In the event that they lose one or more of their incumbents, than these new GOP seats are fated targets to be redrawn and pushed in the democrats favor. Presently, the first is a packed square full of democratic voters and various minorities. Total democratic control means that this is coming to an end as NV03 and NV04 take in some of these blue neighborhoods and trade them for redder ones. These red precencts can easily be found in the three big hubs of GOP power in Clark County: Boulder City, West/Northwest Las Vegas, and parts of Henderson. These hubs and various other Clark GOP areas have more voters and influence the leans of their respective seats more than the required pop from the rurals. Clark needs 75K pop from the rurals in 2010, DRA 2016 has it at 60K required with those estimates, and 2020 estimates have it below 50K needed from outside Vegas and her environs.

Centers of GOP power in Clark County, centers that a democratic trifecta will crack

So, what might the be the composition of these districts? The democratic dream is a seat that takes the usually sunk Reno and pairs it with her blue cousins in Vegas. Doing so will require a narrow connection (road wise) through the rural counties along the western border of the state. The advantage of this pairing is that the decision to take in Blue Reno/Sparks and limited rurals allows the other Clark seats to drop those red hubs into the big second, which becomes a true GOP pack. The downside of such a district is that the intentions of the gerrymanderers are laid bare for all to see. This likely means redistricting litigations, a fair districts ballot initiative, and potentially a mid-decade remap. So perhaps the pairing, while possible, is less probable.

More likely then is that first just trades precincts with her neighbors to lock down the seats. Trading just enough precincts will keep the first safe, but fortify the other two blue seats who are presently on the front lines. Clark’s growth means that the county needs to take in less of the rurals to her north, a limited boon for team blue. The exact numbers needed from the rurals are not yet known, but it is going to be low when compared to 2010. This will result in two safer democratic seats and one competitive blue seat. 

Finally, there is the prospect of a true VRA seat going into effect. In 2010, it was impossible to make a HVAP seat with the precincts available in Clark. Thanks to Hispanic growth, it appears that it is possible now to get a Hispanic district to pass 50% HVAP, but barely 50% HVAP is not enough to be performing. This won’t stop a minority seat though – Sunrise Manor, Whitney, and North Las Vegas have about 70%-ish of a district between them and are only 30% white. It’s possible, maybe even probable that as the 4th trades precincts to become safe democratic, it becomes a minority coalition district.

Concentrated minorities in the Northeast Metro region

What’s Left to Decide

Nevada, at least right now, is a swing state with swing chambers and swing districts. There is the potential for the margins in the legislative chambers to change, and there is the potential for congressional districts to change hands. The topline numbers and presidential coalitions also may change marginally, which impact how safe of competitive seats may have to be.

[Oryxslayer]

I think TML  said this, but it's possible Sisolak is not crazy about gerrymandering and might not sign something aggressive like Clark to Reno

True didn't he veto the National Popular vote bill?

That's different though. A swing state has zero potential benefit from the NPV compact, so why stick the neck out?

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/RedistrictNet/status/1725179908249247927?t=jEqnNPF0PIn6l5mXS...

Something to keep an eye on for the future.