NJ-2: Van Drew considering switching parties over impeachment

[Oryxslayer]

Can you imagine a primary succeeding in New Jersey, otherwise known as machine-land? Especially when JVD was recruited by Norcross? I can't.

[Oryxslayer]

He's about to join a minority party without a shot at majority control for a while. This is in contrast to Specter who upgraded his position in Washington. His jobs going to get a lot less fun.

If I was him and didn't want to stay with the democrats, I would become an Indie and consider retirement in 2020. If he keeps caucusing with the Dems then he'll keep the committee assignments. His present plan seems fated towards an eventual retirement or a primary loss anyway.

[Oryxslayer]

Isn't this something? The Democratic Party isn't going to even allow Van Drew to cast a token "No" vote on an impeachment effort which is ultimately doomed to failure in the Senate, and because of that, he's switching parties? A confused and disheartening situation on all sides. It is true that this district is rapidly trending Republican, Van Drew won by a much smaller margin than had initially been expected, and he succeeded a long-time Republican incumbent who held the seat for more than two decades. On the other hand, party-switchers do not have an unparalleled history of success, and often do so out of personal selfishness.

I'm not sure what to think about this, but what I do know is that this makes it likely Collin Peterson will be the only Democrat in the entire House of Representatives to vote no on the articles of impeachment. Even in 1998, something on the order of six Republicans voted against Bill Clinton's impeachment. Never have we seen an impeachment as partisan and polarized as this one.

The democratic party is fine with him voting No. They understand that such a vote is token. His problem is with the voters back home. Even though NJ-02 is slightly red, it's got a healthy Dem base with POC's in and around Atlantic City and suburbanites near Philly. Those outside the machines control have a right to be angry, even though it may not be the most rational choice. If your representative isn't going to be representing your opinions, then why is he your representative? The county line would probably have been able to save  him if he stayed blue, or at least dissuade all but the most determined challengers. The primary is months away after all, and some voters will forget.

He's just afraid, and he's therefore made a choice that will likely end his career in one way or another. Flippers outside of the south historically cannot answer for their time on the opposite bench, and lose the primary. The GOP machines won't like the fact he was more or less a lockstep D vote on all but the most controversial legislation. If he stayed blue he would face those angry voters, and have to rely on the  machines to prop him up.

[Oryxslayer]

Isn't this something? The Democratic Party isn't going to even allow Van Drew to cast a token "No" vote on an impeachment effort which is ultimately doomed to failure in the Senate, and because of that, he's switching parties? A confused and disheartening situation on all sides. It is true that this district is rapidly trending Republican, Van Drew won by a much smaller margin than had initially been expected, and he succeeded a long-time Republican incumbent who held the seat for more than two decades. On the other hand, party-switchers do not have an unparalleled history of success, and often do so out of personal selfishness.

I'm not sure what to think about this, but what I do know is that this makes it likely Collin Peterson will be the only Democrat in the entire House of Representatives to vote no on the articles of impeachment. Even in 1998, something on the order of six Republicans voted against Bill Clinton's impeachment. Never have we seen an impeachment as partisan and polarized as this one.

The democratic party is fine with him voting No. They understand that such a vote is token. His problem is with the voters back home. Even though NJ-02 is slightly red, it's got a healthy Dem base with POC's in and around Atlantic City and suburbanites near Philly. Those outside the machines control have a right to be angry, even though it may not be the most rational choice. If your representative isn't going to be representing your opinions, then why is he your representative? The county line would probably have been able to save  him if he stayed blue, or at least dissuade all but the most determined challengers. The primary is months away after all, and some voters will forget.

He's afraid, and it's a choice that will likely end his career in one way or another. Flippers outside of the south historically cannot answer for their time on the opposite bench, and lose the primary. The GOP machines won't like the fact he was more or less a lockstep D vote on all but the most controversial legislation. If he stayed blue he would face those angry voters, and have to rely on the  machines to prop him up.

https://twitter.com/jmartNYT/status/1205935885168119816

Party =/= Voters. Party is machine apparatus, insiders, politicians. They know how to wheel and deal. Voters are people on the ground. people are emotional. People get pissed, even when it may not be rational.

X's, X, and X Party all imply three different things.