Louisiana Nov 16, 2019 Run-Off Election Results thread

[Oryxslayer]

I think it's pretty much a given that the EV is going to be more favorable to Edwards, yeah. The question is if it's typically counted first like in many states, or if there's no particular pattern to it.

If I recall from the  primary, there is no particular trend. Louisiana EV is treated as a separate category of votes in parishes rather then being joined to precinct or counted before hand in secrecy like in some states. Some parishes released it first, others, notably Lafayette, released it last. Historically the EV is more republican than the day of vote, and historically the GOP under-preforms their combined primary vote, but we will see if history holds up.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1195889167026315265

There was always going to be a drop-off in LA05 - Abraham got a 'home region' effect in his district. JBE needed to have more go his way than just this though, so lets see if such needs actually were fulfilled.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/JMilesColeman/status/1195890532465201152

[Oryxslayer]

I'm actually not sure that the ED is going to be better for Rispone. He actually seems to be losing ground in some parishes.

Moorehouse for example flipped from a Red EV to Blue just now. Moorehouse is a classic case of Abraham getting a 'home-district' effect that artificially inflated GOP numbers.

[Oryxslayer]

Just to prevent the fret, Orleans just reported some precents, not the EV. Louisana counties do not have to, and at times do not, report the EV first. Though it is shocking to see just how high JBE's margins in those Orleans precincts is.

[Oryxslayer]

JBE about to win Moorehouse after loosing it hard in the primary.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/JMilesColeman/status/1195898851141603328

[Oryxslayer]

And there is the NOLA early vote.

[Oryxslayer]

Yeah so this is likely going to be over in the next 45 minutes or so. I keep looking around and most of the rurals or subruban counties are done whereas Caddo, EBR, and NOLA still have bombs to drop.

[Oryxslayer]

Rispone leads by 7K when 500 of the remaining 725ish precincts are in Caddo, EBR, and NOLA. This will be over soon.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/ChazNuttycombe/status/1195906167853203456

https://twitter.com/ChazNuttycombe/status/1195902050623774722

Window on the House districts and the republicans attempts to take the supermajority.

[Oryxslayer]

Rispone still up 80 percent In

Do you not understand geographic vote patterns.

I bet he had a fun time with the AL-SEN special.

Anyone here remember Kenobi's "model" that ignored counting biases....

[Oryxslayer]

GOP fails to take the state house, Edwards's future vetos will be be upheld.

[Oryxslayer]

GOP fails to take the state house, Edwards's future vetos will be be upheld.

Wait what dems control the state house in LA or do you mean they failed to get a veto proof majority

Fails to take veto proof majority. Sorry, I have the desire to post quickly right now,so mistakes are made.

[Oryxslayer]

Literally all but one precinct left uncalled is in a JBE county. How high do you think he'll be able to pump up the numbers?

[Oryxslayer]

For those who are saying 'this is just one gov race,' Louisiana just became a 2021 redistricting battleground. It has the AA pop numbers and dems have just enough power to make a push for a second AA seat. This WILL result in serious fighting and likely court battles involving the NAACP.

[Oryxslayer]

It's kinda amazing how many split tickers there are between the Gov and the SoS in the NOLA region. Looking at Jefferson alone there are 20K, 1/6th of all total votes cast! Reminds you of the massive dropoff that occurred in KY between Beshear and every other Dem.

[Oryxslayer]

As of 11:23 PM ET

49 precincts are outstanding (1 in St James; remainder is EBR & Orleans)

It looks almost as if... trends are real.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/ActorAaronBooth/status/1195929298504429573

Final results.

Edwards: 774,469, 51.3%
Rispone: 734,128, 48.7%

[Oryxslayer]

How many seats did Dems pickup in the LA statehouse?

Just one, but they held another. Enough to prevent the supermajority.

So what do you think will the final numbers be when everything is tallied up?

For comparison, here's what the legislature looked like this summer:

Senate

Republicans: 25
Democrats: 14

House

Republicans: 60
Democrats: 39
independents: 5
vacancy: 1

https://twitter.com/ChazNuttycombe/status/1195910246537011200

https://twitter.com/ChazNuttycombe/status/1195919213912825857

[Oryxslayer]

How many seats did Dems pickup in the LA statehouse?

Just one, but they held another. Enough to prevent the supermajority.

So what do you think will the final numbers be when everything is tallied up?

For comparison, here's what the legislature looked like this summer:

Senate

Republicans: 25
Democrats: 14

House

Republicans: 60
Democrats: 39
independents: 5
vacancy: 1

https://twitter.com/ChazNuttycombe/status/1195910246537011200
https://twitter.com/ChazNuttycombe/status/1195919213912825857

So as of January 2020 when the new legislature is sworn in, this is going to be the final breakdown?

Senate

Republicans: 28
Democrats: 11

House

Republicans: 67
Democrats: 37
independent: 1

I see one independent district on that House map you linked there, and I presume the rest are accounted for.  

Theres a second Indie in NOLA if you squint hard enough. The vacancy I believe was also in a GOP seat so its 68/35/2. That's the distribution that makes  the most sense since the GOP was one pickup away from the 70 seat supermajority threshold, but they failed to hit said pickup and went back a seat.

[Oryxslayer]

I see only 2 GOP pickups in the Senate.

Anyway, if these numbers are accurate, then Republicans could overturn JBE's veto simply by winning over the two indies and one single Democrat. To specialists of LA local politics, what are the chances of that happening?

I'm in no position to commentate, but like in much of the deep south, Louisiana's democratic caucus is now dominated by African Americans. GOP packing of the AA vote and the collapse of rural whites mean all that are  left are the committed AA legislative core - who are the least likely of any demographic to vote with the GOP on day to day issues.

[Oryxslayer]

You know guys, we have a 2020 Redistricting thread for Louisiana up  already in The Redistricting and Demographics board. This discussion might be more productive there.