2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread v2

[Oryxslayer]

DCCC poll in NJ-02

Jeff Van Drew (R-inc) - 47
Amy Kennedy (D) - 44

https://twitter.com/coleleiter/status/1280677530689843200

All things considered, this isn't a bad poll for the GOP.

[Oryxslayer]

Wasserman's seat movements.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1283822699408576512?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwca...

LMAO

Lighting money on fire is a bipartisan affair, so don't laugh too hard. However, it does appear that McGrath's millions may end up bearing some fruit if KY06 ends up returning to it's 2018 position on the battlefield via down-ballot boosts.

[Oryxslayer]

I just saw that Harley Rouda (CA-48) challenged Michelle Steel to 8 debates, and she hasn’t responded. I wonder if he benefited more than most CA Dems from the quality of the incumbent he was challenging and this seat snaps back.

I also saw this. the usual rule is that if you call for a superfluous number of debates, you are concerned about your internals - either down or consistently tied. 

[Oryxslayer]

Colorado being in the same category as Georgia, Iowa, and Montana is absolutely criminal. Very lousy ratings from Cook Political!

If anyone read the piece, she basically explains that Colorado would be Lean D if it had anything close to the level of polling we have from Arizona. I tend not to like Cook when it comes to the senate, but they are rather clear here.

[Oryxslayer]

Garcia internal has him leading by 48-41, Biden+5. Given the rules around released internals, it clearly looks like a tossup race for CA-25.

Also a bad poll for the D v D CA53 race:

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1291231978679926784?s=20

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1297773356721352704?s=20

Another Democratic Internal in IN05, another democratic lead large enough to be maintain itself even after one 'corrects' for the fact that this is an internal.

[Oryxslayer]

Originally posted in the MA-SEN thread:

https://jewishinsider.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/RABAJewish-Insider-MA01-August-2020.pdf

MA-01 Democratic Primary
RABA Research/Jewish Insider
August 23-24, 2020
518 likely voters
MoE: 4.3%

Neal 49%
Morse 40%
Not sure 12%

It should be noted this poll has Kennedy over Markey by 7% in this district and that's not what I would expect assuming the statewide Markey leads are as high as recent polls suggest, although the Senate primary isn't going to break completely along traditional progressive/moderate lines so I can't be too sure.

Nationally, we think of Western Massachusetts as this bastion of the left since it's part of greater Vermont culturally, and backed democratic candidates in tight races like the 2012 Senate election. The issue with this birds-eye perspective is that you ignore the people living and voting there. A brief examination of the residents would explain why this is not the first poll to have a Kennedy lead in Western MA. A lot of the rural democratic strength over there is thanks to eco-retirees, older people who retire close to nature rather than in the heat of Florida. It makes sense that older voters would go for the name that they have a positive association with, since they have lived through at least the glory days of Ted Kennedy.

[Oryxslayer]

https://rickkennedyforcongress.com/2020/09/01/kennedy-within-margin-of-error-in-race-against-sessions-biden-trump-are-in-a-dead-heat-in-race-for-president-among-cd-17-voters/

Conducted "last week" (August 24-30?)
1160 likely voters

Pete Sessions 45%
Rick Kennedy 42%
Undecided 13%

The margin of error is at least 3 % as Kennedy is said to be within it, according to the release.

This isn't happening, but it would be hilarious if Sessions lost after carpetbagging.

Edit: a fuller release:
https://static.texastribune.org/media/files/51fbdda7b3608e331d0d28fdda73f8cb/tx17poll.pdf

August 22-23, 2020
MoE: 4.38%

I was just in this district. Number of Biden signs I saw: 0. Number of Kennedy signs I saw: 0.

This is not the type of district I would expect to see a massive swing.

I mean Beto lost it by 10 points. I wouldn't be surprised if it's a bit less than that in November. When we apply normal internal weights, it actually isn't that far off from this expectation.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/Jaaavis/status/1301696722696048648?s=20

Guess I'll post it here? Theres a chance Freitas may not be the nominee in VA07.

[Oryxslayer]

The thing about ads is that they only have a marginal impact if both parties are spending at near equal amounts. You want to counter the oppositions ads and prevent them from getting an exponential lead, leading to the marginal uncommitted voter walking into the booth and voting for the person who they actually know about from TV/Web/radio/etc. Good has so poor finances that the GOP has to work double time to bring him up to par, and they essentially decided it's not worth the effort. So, if Good wins in November, it's going to be the (R) label that saves him.

[Oryxslayer]

Finally.

https://twitter.com/PatrickSvitek/status/1313818860215173121?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoo...

What the hell was taking them so long? Did they consider this a 'last priority' seat in Texas or something?

Mostly. McCaul recognized early on that he was sitting in a battleground district and took the necessary steps to protect himself. This is of course in contrast to the collective denial of the rest of the TXGOP, so he wasn't exactly the lowest hanging fruit.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/OHPredictive/status/1313996290020331520

Did Schweikert just give up after he got reprimanded by the House in July? I get that he is advertising on other platforms, but this isn't the first time he has been horribly outspent by Tipirneni.

[Oryxslayer]

So, how many more rounds of ratings changes should we expect from Wasserman/Sabato?

Sabato's final will either be tomorrow or Monday. No idea about Cook.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/kkondik/status/1323260162854035456

They have had CA-25 at Lean R for months. I fear they will just leave it there in the final analysis, even though it looks to be Lean D.

[Oryxslayer]

https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/21320//

Final calls!

R gain MN-07, D gain AZ-06, GA-07, IN-05, MN-01, NJ-02, NC-02, NC-06, OH-01, PA-10, TX-23, TX-24.

The big difference between Sabato and Cook this cycle I feel is Wasserman believes in Texas and has pushed accordingly, whereas Sabato doesn't, or is willing to take the L at every level if it happens.

[Oryxslayer]

https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/21320//

Sabato made his final calls!

House: R gain MN-07, D gain AZ-06, GA-07, IN-05, MN-01, NJ-02, NC-02, NC-06, OH-01, PA-10, TX-23, TX-24.

Senate: R gain AL, D gain the core four, both GA seats go to a runoff.

I live in the district and can't wrap my head around Tipirneni winning AZ-06. I wouldn't predict it.

And if she somehow does, she easily loses against a normal Republican in '22.

I mean, given that AZ-10 will slide into the metro area, theres a chance she gets left in a better position after redistricting.