KY: Beshear wins endorsement from Fraternal Order of Police

[Oryxslayer]

Incumbents usually win, but Bevin looks like an exception.

Incumbents when considering state elections tend to be favored until they F up massively, at which point the probilities stack up hard against their reelection. If Bevin was in a less-but-still-GOP state, like SC, MO, or IN, we would not be having this 'will-he-won't-he' discussion. The deme who had been nominated would be winning this hypothetical 2019 contest, and everyone would have agree to some sort of deme ranking.

[Oryxslayer]

Incumbents usually win, but Bevin looks like an exception.

Incumbents when considering state elections tend to be favored until they F up massively, at which point the probilities stack up hard against their reelection. If Bevin was in a less-but-still-GOP state, like SC, MO, or IN, we would not be having this 'will-he-won't-he' discussion. The deme who had been nominated would be winning this hypothetical 2019 contest, and everyone would have agree to some sort of deme ranking.

Rick Scott and Paul LePage were pretty unpopular in 2014 and they still won reelection despite being in states less favorable than any of the ones you listed.

And they had the wind at their backs. Which the GOP lacks in 2019.