Georgia's Very Own Megathread!

[Oryxslayer]

It sounds like Loeffler could be vulnerable to a conservative primary challenge.

Remember it's a jungle primary for the special seat, so things will get weird. If it's loeffler vs Collins vs democrat A vs potentially democrat B vs whomever else might produce unusual results, especially since the jungle is on election night.

[Oryxslayer]

Most county margins are utterly useless, unfortunately. Safe D counties siphoning off R voters to decide local primary/de-facto GE outcomes; Safe R counties siphoning off D voters for the same reason. Only the somewhat close/flipping counties where the flip is occurring so rapidly that voters of one party haven't yet begun clustering into the dominant party's primary have realistic numbers (like Cobb, and Gwinnett - but Gwinnett's would be lopsided for Ds too if younger Latino/Asian voters cast ballots at meaningful levels; bit of a coincidence here).

Agreed. I don't think you'll see any insane outliers this time (like solidly-R Clinch County voting 75% Dem in the 2018 primary due to local factors,) so the county map based on which counties vote for which party will look fairly typical for a two-party race in Georgia.

You're right that the margins are going to be inflated in quite a few counties, though. For example, Burke County, even if Biden wins it this year, is not going 68-30 Dem. Likewise, Baker County is not going 90-10 Dem.

Taking a look at even the still-quite R-but-D-trending suburban counties, the margins are insane. Down by 2 in Fayette (Kemp +13)? Down by 8 in Houston (Kemp +17)?

If one just looked at the metros and suburban counties (which are a big part of the state, of course) and guessed on that, they tell a story of Democrats winning by 6-8 points, rather than one where Democrats are up by a half-point; that's only 2 points better margin-wise than 2018 GE. That doesn't even include the smattering of heavily-D small counties like you mentioned as well.

At any rate, it probably balances out overall and the statewide margin is likely quite close to current GE reality.

I would say it tells a story of suburban Dem's being excited and activated, something that has been obvious since Virginia, especially when compared to their republican brethren. Excitement can also explain some of the one-party domination when it comes to their strongholds, since voters are less encouraged to turnout if the only people on your ticket are nobodies who cannot win. obviously this would be a different story if the presidential contests were still relevant, but those are more or less wrapped up.

[Oryxslayer]

Fulton County polls will remain open until 9pm per order of the county Superior Court.

Which means quite possibly everything will be uncounted until 9pm.

https://twitter.com/DecisionDeskHQ/status/1270477088513052674?s=20

EDIT: Not just fulton

https://twitter.com/JustinGrayWSB/status/1270472436358799360?s=20

[Oryxslayer]

Representative Scott of GA13 looks like he may be heading for a runoff - anybody expected that? And against this person?

https://twitter.com/greggiroux/status/1270569327268442112?s=20

[Oryxslayer]

Bourdeaux is still running pretty strong, holding steady at winning 67% of the mail-in absentees. She's gone from 46.0% -> 47.0% in overall margin from the last 3000 votes added.

Up to 48.7% after Forsyth absentees, seems like I was correct to say the AP called this race prematurely.

Oh wow. If the AP called this many races prematurely here in Georgia primaries alone...

This is going to be a nightmare in November. A lot of premature calls are going to go for Republicans before Dem-heavy Counties finish

Hopefully the press learns from their mistakes here, and the expected mistakes in the coming weeks. Fool me once shame on you, fool me twice, shame on me and all that.

[Oryxslayer]

I see that the front runner in the GA-14 R primary is an open QAnon supporter.  It's a 75% Trump district so the winner of the runoff will go to Congress.

The only potential silver lining if she wins is that GA14 is gonna be forced to stay mainly in the NW of the state in redistricting if the state GOP wishes to protect her from an educated exurban primary challenge. Or perhaps they will desire to facilitate that and be forced to waste exurban red voters ousting her.

[Oryxslayer]

How many pickups will Democrats have in the GA legislature this year?

Unfortunately, not enough, and that's probably all that will matter.

[Oryxslayer]

Per the AJC, absentee ballot applications will not be mailed for the November general election. Instead, an "online portal" will be set up to allow voters to order an absentee ballot.

And Raffensperger said he won’t send absentee ballot request forms to 6.9 million Georgia voters again, as he did in the primary. Instead, he’ll create a website where voters can request absentee ballots themselves.

Honestly, this is even better: no stupid postage or envelope required for application return.

I really don't get why the GOP (both Kemp and now Raffensperger) are so hell-bent on making voting easy? First the MVP system, then AVR, and now all of this. How many states (even D-controlled ones) mailed ballot applications to voters for even the primary?

The GA Democratic party is mostly minorities, who are more likely to use traditional voter methods rather than vote by mail. So this gives then an excuse to cut polling locations in minority neighborhoods while saying that they offered another option.

[Oryxslayer]

LMAO it's literally just for a job at Walgreens, presumably at the corporate level:

https://www.wsbtv.com/news/local/atlanta/atlanta-mayor-keisha-lance-bottoms-will-not-seek-re-election/ADFKHCQ6V5B2LBZFNW5GHWRENU/

Plenty of people have noted, including the NYT, that mayors of both parties are running for the doors because the pandemic made their usually thankless task even harder.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/GeorgiaDemocrat/status/1465899752730468354

Is Georgia truly gone for Republicans if Democrats are doing this well in the current national environment?

Its possible. Democrats nationwide should start taking lessons from the state party.

A lot of this was catch-up with the party gaining in places they have won frequently recently but struggled to expand in the lower-turnout off-cycle, but there are still places on the list like Warner Robins which in 2020 were around 50-50 in D's favor.

[Oryxslayer]

That's a bold move, blaming your loss on your future primary opponent.