Australian Federal Election 18th of May 2019

[Oryxslayer]

Remember this is Ben Kenobi, the poster who called Alabama Senate for Roy Moore at 50% reporting, despite the clear counting bias and the NYT needle being against him. The justification? A incredibly weak model that assumes there never is counting bias ever and all precincts are reasonablly similar.

Don't waste your time typing trying to convince posters, on any side, who are already locked into a opinion and refuse to change.

[Oryxslayer]

Australia has mandatory voting and 90% turnout

How the hell can polls be off under that scenario?

Lol

If anything, polls are more likely to be off, since you have a large segment (varrying sizes) of voters in most countries who just don't want to participate. If forced, they might vote for some wacko, or whoever is at the top of the list, or any other weird scenario.