Wisconsin Megathread v3: GOP in MASSIVE DISARRAY

[Oryxslayer]

Kenosha results with 67% in are horrific for Karofsky. Is DDHQ correct?

I think there's something wrong with their numbers. The number of votes is lower than what the Journal Sentinel is reporting despite DDHQ having a higher % in.

Reminder that DDHQ trades speed for accuracy, and that they often have data entry errors like this that are corrected in the next main update.

[Oryxslayer]

Kenosha results with 67% in are horrific for Karofsky. Is DDHQ correct?

I think there's something wrong with their numbers. The number of votes is lower than what the Journal Sentinel is reporting despite DDHQ having a higher % in.

Reminder that DDHQ trades speed for accuracy, and that they often have data entry errors like this that are corrected in the next main update.

And this error reemerges in Marathon.

[Oryxslayer]

Kenosha, Rock, Marathon, Dodge, (EDIT) and St. Croixare the counties closest to finishing counting at both the AP and DDHQ. They therefore should be the focus of any serious analysis.

Karofsky is doing 2% better than Neubauer in Kenosha.

Kelly is doing 1% better than Hagedorn in Rock.

Karofsky is doing 7%(!) better in Marathon.

Kelly is doing 3% better in Dodge.

(EDIT) Karofsky doing 4% better in St. Croix.

[Oryxslayer]

Kenosha, Rock, Marathon, Dodge, (EDIT) and St. Croixare the counties closest to finishing counting at both the AP and DDHQ. They therefore should be the focus of any serious analysis.

Karofsky is doing 2% better than Neubauer in Kenosha.

Kelly is doing 3% better than Hagedorn in Rock.

Karofsky is doing 7%(!) better in Marathon.

Kelly is doing 3% better in Dodge.

(EDIT) Karofsky doing 4% better in St. Croix.

Look at JS for Dodge, not DDHQ, DDHQ numbers are too low.

Another DDHQ precinct error, adding the precincts to the total but not the votes.

Also I suspect there is something up with Kenosha's count, cause it's the only county of any size not on pace with 2019 in turnout, AND we didn't get any angry articles about the lack of polls there - for example, Green Bay. Perhaps they will be adding their VBM in a separate basket.

[Oryxslayer]

Based on the fact that there are 0 votes on JS for Milwaukee Mayor, I have to assume that we don't have any city of Milwaukee vote there either.

Yes, the city of Milwaukee is all out (though worth noting there were only what, 5 polling places?)

Yes but there were absentee votes too.

Also important to remember there is the rural north, which is also taking it's sweet time to go precinct by precinct. Last time this bailed Hagedorn out, though the reports of rural turnout being down may end up coming to fruition. The reports of turnout passing 2019 in Wausau city certainly came to pass so...

[Oryxslayer]

So how long until the WI GOP tries to nullify the results are of an election they were unwilling to let Evers postpone because they don’t like the results?

If Karofsky wins, it would start tomorrow.

Probably. Fortunately, annulling elections and ordering redos doesn't have the best track record for the annullers. The most recent high profile example was Istanbul's mayor. That election was held in a worse democracy than Wisconsin, where it has been proven that the govt releases opposition areas early to know just how many votes need to be stuffed in their strongholds. The opposition won Istanbul's first poll by a handful of votes, Erdogan ordered a redo, and then the opposition subsequently won by so much that the AKP bosses had to end up respecting the real outcome.

[Oryxslayer]

Marathon fully reporting. Kelly wins by only 390 votes/3.5%.

Thats a DDHQ bug, new votes have yet to be added. Those are still the totals from 78 precincts.

[Oryxslayer]

NOW marathon has finished counting, and DDHQ has imputed the correct numbers. This is the only county that has finished counting.

53.47% Kelly, 17672 votes: +1190 votes,

46.53% Karofsky, 15379 votes: +4109 Votes

Net swing of ~5.5% swing towards the liberals from 2019.

[Oryxslayer]

supposedly Ozaukee is done and KAROFSKY CLEARED 44%.

Yikes. I mean yeah, Ozaukee is the crack in the WOW wall that is sliding left as the north shore liberal whites expand northwards, but that crack is still small - especially when compared to Waukesha's political expansion into Jefferson, Racine, and Walworth. Close races are only on the cards in the late 2020s at the earliest, and their conversion probably won't matter anymore consideirng the R trends in the west of the state. Evers was the last D to carry Ozaukee - when he won a landslide for his row office and carried everything but western WOW. So...Yikes.

[Oryxslayer]

I mean on one hand, lots of voters cited the court race as more important than the presidential one, and the court race pushed turnout more than the presidential ticket. On the other hand, Bernie dropping out would still have lowered the incentives to vote, and his decision to drop out the next day showed that Bernie was aware of this race and clearly guided by it on his decision to stay in after Mid-March. So I guess he deserves some praise.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/judgekarofsky/status/1249844449708068873

[Oryxslayer]

So how long until the WI GOP tries to nullify the results are of an election they were unwilling to let Evers postpone because they don’t like the results?

If Karofsky wins, it would start tomorrow.

Probably. Fortunately, annulling elections and ordering redos doesn't have the best track record for the annullers. The most recent high profile example was Istanbul's mayor. That election was held in a worse democracy than Wisconsin, where it has been proven that the govt releases opposition areas early to know just how many votes need to be stuffed in their strongholds. The opposition won Istanbul's first poll by a handful of votes, Erdogan ordered a redo, and then the opposition subsequently won by so much that the AKP bosses had to end up respecting the real outcome.

Reminder for what may happen if the GOP tries to do the obvious thing.

[Oryxslayer]

I want to see how high this margin goes when Madison and Dane finally finish their count.

[Oryxslayer]

I want to see how high this margin goes when Madison and Dane finally finish their count.

Remember that Waukesha still has a bit left outstanding.

I wonder if Jill will break a 100k vote statewide margin?

For reference:

https://twitter.com/WinWithJMC/status/1249855134005440512

[Oryxslayer]

Is there a region name for the area with Outagamie, Winnebago, and Brown counties? Karofsky is doing very well there.

Fox Valley.

[Oryxslayer]

Racine-Kenosha split was 17.5 points today, which is quite interesting.

Kenosha's kinda stayed where she's been for a while politically, meanwhile Racine has been gradually sliding rightwards as WOW starts birthing exurbs in the west of the county.

[Oryxslayer]

County updates:

Outagamie (60% in) flips to a 500 vote Karofsky lead.
Portage (<50% in) at an exactly 500 vote Karofsky lead (very aesthetic 4200-3700 tally right now)
Monroe (3 precincts left) is ending up Kelly +4%.

I'm really amazed at how narrow some of these rural margins are for Kelly. Wood +5, Juneau +7, St. Croix +1. Nothing out of Pierce yet but that could easily end up something absurd like Kelly +3 and there's a very outside chance that the Rof could win it.

e: right as I posted Columbia dropped all but two precincts and is Karofsky +16. Her margin is at 95K right now and with so much of Dane out she's easily going to crush 100K.

St. Croix isn't exactly rural. It's more exurban, on it's way towards becoming suburban. The county is one of the few bright spots in the state when it comes to democratic trends.

[Oryxslayer]

Thank God!!!!


BTW, is Kelly from racine or something?

Racine County is a good bellwether county during Presidential years, but leans pretty strong towards the right in any other year. The western part of the county is like the most Republican areas of the WOW counties (Extremely Republican), the suburbs around the city are a lot like Franklin or Oak Creek (Moderately Republican) and then the City of Racine itself is very Democratic, but the turnout can fluctuate a lot as it's a pretty diverse city, especially by Wisconsin standards.

Even in 2008 Obama was only able to win Racine by 7 points when he won by almost twice that statewide. It's a pretty polarized county prone to turnout fluctuations. Possibly one of the few places where the GOP voter suppression scheme worked.

It's also important to remember that WOW like most suburbs is now expanding into exurbs, which is opening up homes for new democrats to move into and produce some suburban swing. Some of these newer exurbs are in South and Western Racine county - it is no surprise that Walker tried to get the Foxconn plant down here. Throw in the normal midwestern out-migration of minorities back to the south, and you have a recipe for a county that has been sliding rightwards from it's old 'pea in a pod' relationship to Kenosha.

[Oryxslayer]

I think it's Hagedorn, the one who barely beat Neubauer last year.

Yes Hagedorn sided with the two liberals on the voter purge suit. Karofsky's win likely means it will be rejected.

https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/politics/2020/03/11/voter-purge-conservatives-ask-court-fast-track-wisconsin-case/5021246002/

Wait really? I thought he was a hardcore republican?

It's a differences between hardcore ideological politicians and power-hungry politicians. I know those two seem close right now in the GOP, and are near uniform in a few states like WI/NC/TX, but there is still differences that will become clearer in 1 or 5 years.

[Oryxslayer]

Supreme Court Map for Dane County:



Karofsky got 89% of the vote in Madison! There were some wards where she was getting over 97% of the vote.

That is getting to Obama 08 levels in Chicago where McCain literally had zero votes in a few precincts.

I mean...that's kinda normal in urban hyper-AA precincts. Madison is a white city though.

[Oryxslayer]

I said this When Dems won the court race, but it has once again cropped up - Hagedorn is a Conservative, but not a power-grabber like the the normal WIGOP. Probably has something to do with him being left to the wolves by the usual GOP partisan actors in his election, since he was seen as too extreme in certain areas. His support network was more 'unofficial,' and when he won it was a surprise to all but the most devout. For example, check out the number of endorsements he got (listed on Ballotopedia) when compared to Kelly or Screnock.

[Oryxslayer]

Good ruling from the Wisconsin State Supreme Court on voting.

https://twitter.com/sbauerAP/status/1380521152242716682?s=20

Ngl, Hagedorn had been a surprisingly thoughtful jurist.

He has been a oddball in Wisconsin politics, in that he is a Conservative, but one opposed to semi-authoritarian power grabs in the name of partisanship.

[Oryxslayer]

Next year's Supreme Court election has now become one of the most important elections ever!

Okay everyone, would you take the over or the under on if the amount of cash spent on that race is the most ever spent on a court race, or any race in Wisconsin?

[Oryxslayer]

Steil seemed to underperform a bit this year too. I wonder if WI-01 isn't completely lost for Dems in the future.

The redrawn version is one of those seats that Dems decided to ignore.this cycle cause of the predicted environment, like PA10 and CA03, but almost certainly is a future target when offense rather than defense is the larger goal.

[Oryxslayer]

Some gross stuff out of Brookfield. They must be terrified that it will become another Wauwatosa.

https://twitter.com/jjoyce/status/1617911913702391809?s=20

Note all 3 are still well over 70% White by VAP. The two derided towns just vote Democratic, Wauwatosa by a 30% margin. White suburbanites increasingly favoring the Dems is what changed, not an influx of Milwaukee minorities...which is something Brookfield Republicans should be more interested in: trump only won by 8.5%.