Whose Districts are most likely to disappear?

[Oryxslayer]

kinda shocking california may lose a seat. which one do y'all think will go???

Its a tragedy of surplus, when you have that many seats with that much pop, you need to keep up your growth. If you grow that tiny bit less, and this is compounded by Cali having to work metaphorically overtime to grow (if CA grows 10% and the nation was previously stagnant, CA only grew 9% and the nation grew 1%) then its far easier to lose seats. On the other hand, its far easier to gains seats if you do match those harsh growth requirements, as shown by the late 20th century redistricting in CA or TX right now.

[Oryxslayer]

I mean concerning NY, one can get real creative since the state has quite a few districts. For example, here is a 25 seat (upstate) map using one of the many available projections, made back when the state was adjusted downwards. No town cuts, but a wide MOE since this was a projection. I was able to cut old NY-21, rather then 22. That said, the map assumes Brindisi does down in 2020. 25 seat is actually more flexible on the D side, whereas 26 is more flexible for Rs - It has to do with upstate pop relative to the pop south of Westchester. If downstate is underpopulated relative to the total, they have to eat more of Blue Westchester, whereas if upstate is underpopulated, they get more of Westchester.



NY-16 (Light Green) - Nita Lowey: Old PVI - D+7. New PVI: D+8
NY-17 (Royal Blue) - Sean Maloney: Old PVI - R+1. New PVI: D+2
NY-18 (Yellow) - Antonio Delgado & Elise Stefanik: Old PVI R+2. New PVI: D+3
NY-19 (Moss Green) - Paul Tonko: Old PVI: D+7. New PVI: D+6.5
NY-20 (pink) - John Katko Old PVI: D+3. New PVI: R+10
NY-21 (Grey) - Tom Reed Old PVI: R+6. New PVI: R+9
NY-22 (Brown) - Open Old PVI: R+6. New PVI: D+7.5
NY-23 (Seafoam Green) - Joseph Morelle Old PVI: D+8. New PVI: D+7.5
NY-24 (Purple) - Chris Collins or Successor Old PVI: R+11. New PVI: R+13
NY-25 (Peach) - Brian Higgins Old PVI: D+11. New PVI: D+9

The second seat cut has to come from long island, which even under this (small l) liberal assumption, only has the pop for 3.5 districts. NYC is shrinking in some parts, but exploding in others. This also makes the dems task easier, since the current NY-5/6 can expand into Nassau eating near Pub communities like Garden City. A tactful liberation of Islip and Brentwood from NY-02 and then a general redraw probably preserves the 1 D/1 Tossup D that the dems currently hold while merging NY-02/01. Gets easier if King finally retires, since there is no seniority sitting in south Nassau.