Congressional Special Election (last call! unstickied after NY-27 final results)

[Oryxslayer]

Robinson's starting their drop.

[Oryxslayer]

Mecklenburg finally shows signs of life.

[Oryxslayer]

Bishop is likely to pull ahead if Union finishes before Mecklenburg releases more than 1 precinct. its going to come down to Mecklenburg.

https://twitter.com/BenJ_Rosenblatt/status/1171586569301626881

[Oryxslayer]

There's still a lot left in Robeson too

I'd bet Bishop wins the eday vote there narrowly due to the trump rally though.

It clear some red precincts in this segregated county just dropped, since McReady lost 5% with 5 precincts.

[Oryxslayer]

Bishop is likely to pull ahead if Union finishes before Mecklenburg releases more than 1 precinct. its going to come down to Mecklenburg.

https://twitter.com/BenJ_Rosenblatt/status/1171586569301626881

Bumping this because it looks like its about to happen.

[Oryxslayer]

Cumberland and Blanden also start releasing returns.

[Oryxslayer]

Bishop just pulled ahead, with 10 of Union's remaining precincts. 10 left, and he'll likely net a few more to the east. Its a photo finish once again, and its all coming down to mecklenburg.

[Oryxslayer]

Whats left:

10 precincts from Union
1 from Anson
2 from Richmond
9 from Cumberland
6 from Blanden
24 from Robeson


43 from Mecklenburg. Its all coming down to meckenburg.

[Oryxslayer]

Whats left:

10 precincts from Union
1 from Anson
2 from Richmond
9 from Cumberland
6 from Blanden
24 from Robeson


43 from Mecklenburg. Its all coming down to meckenburg.

Who do you think net gains from the non-meck, non-union vote?

Its mostly a wash, discounting Robenson. And Robenson is very segregated so who knows whats out, but its probably more dem since some gop precincts dropped  last time.

[Oryxslayer]

Hey, 7more precincts from Meckleneburg. Those 7 knocked Bishop down a few points.

[Oryxslayer]

Whats left:

6 Precincts from Union
14 from Robinson
5 Blanden
9 Cumberland

36 Mecklenburg

Robinson is a unkown because segregation, Blandan and Union are fro Bishop, Cumberland probably nets votes for Bishop. Its all Mecklenburg now.

[Oryxslayer]

Looking at the vote changes, did the african american vote collapse or was just Harris a uniquely bad candidate?

'

Not really. If we end up having to write McReady's obituary, it will be because of turnout differentials and Robinson Lumbees:

https://twitter.com/JMilesColeman/status/1171601325592862721

[Oryxslayer]

The only stuff left is Blanden and Mecklenburg. Unless there's some sort of Absentee vote left, Bishop has won. But its clear Dem enthusiasm hasn't stopped now that 2018 is over. And like the miles tweet, McReady lost because he lost the Lumbee vote.

[Oryxslayer]

It's now official. McCready improves from his 2018 result in suburban Mecklenburg (Bishop's home turf!) and does roughly the same in suburban Union County. But he does worse overall due to a total collapse in the rural areas, losing two rural counties he carried in 2018 and nearly losing one he carried by 15 points (!) in 2018!

Politician, Zaybay, and everyone else who insists there will be a rural surge for the Democrats in 2020 must be reeling right now.

I wouldn't use Robinson as a example of anything other then Robinson politics, there is no other county quite like it in America. The Lumbee move as a bloc, and its very likely that if they gave McReady the same numbers as they did in 2018, this would be a  dem gain. Cumberland is also not a rural county. But the rest of the take  is fine.

[Oryxslayer]

10 months ago, 138,000 Democrats voted for McCready.
Yesterday, 92,000 voted for him.

Who are these 46,000 Democrats?

And here we go again with the hot takes about how Democrats need to find a way to appeal to rural rednecks and their "economic anxiety".
Funny how after all the beatings Republicans took the last two years not one single pundit or journalist never said that they should visit some of those affluent suburbs and find a way to appeal to those educated suburbanites.

Kevin Williamson at National Review is on a one-man crusade to get the GOP involved in cities again.
Urban outreach
From Sea to Shining Sea
We'll Always Have... Fort Worth?

The writing is sterling and the ideas surprisingly convincing.
Thank goodness his Never Trump stance condemn him to crying in the wilderness.

Special elections always have lower turnout. The GOP Lost votes overall as well. Don't even attempt a spin that the Dems lost 46K voters, because that would a idiotic take, knowing how special elections always have lower turnout then a November contest. Chances are, the 46K are people who, like usual in off cycle contests, didn't realize there was one, or couldn't get an excuse to leave work for a abnormal electoral contest.

[Oryxslayer]

If the Lumbee Tribe swung towards Bishop at only the same rate as the other eastern counties, McCready probably wins.

Not sure the Lumbee Tribe swung towards Bishop as much as they just did not turn out for McCready. Bishop's raw vote total in Robeson was barely short of Harris' whereas McCready's plunged.

This is a good point. I saw an article how there was a member of the Tribe that ran for the state legislature in 2018 as a Democrat that greatly boosted the turnout there and they went along with McCready. I imagine a lot of those folks didn't show up yesterday.

This mini thread of three post sums up yesterday's election entirely.

Let me add on a fourth post, because it seems Wasserman has found the reason for Bishops strength with the Lumbees, even though turnout was a problem for McReady:

So how did Bishop, whose state Charlotte area senate district is nowhere near Robeson County, do so well there? It turns out that in March, when Bishop was just launching his bid for the do-over congressional election, he sponsored a bill to open more grant opportunities for the Lumbees by clarifying state recognition of the tribe. Bishop's picture appeared in the Robesonian, and it likely paid off on Tuesday.

Sounds  like the exact sort of thing that would matter in this unique county with no comparable partners anywhere in the US.

EDIT: looks like I was beaten to the punch.

[Oryxslayer]

And the disingenuousness continues

https://mobile.twitter.com/charliekirk11/status/1171650087933698048

Twitter is cancer.

Kirk is the mouthpiece of TPUSA. He has repeatedly proven to be either an idiot - see the fake presidential seal incident and TPUSA's inability to stop the  proliferation of TP joke memes, or a willing puppet similar to Prager U. Spreading false truths is all part of a days work for this guy. I mean, TPUSA is the organization that put Candice "Hitler would have been OK if he had just stayed in Germany" Owens in their upper echelons, they are not the brightest bunch.

[Oryxslayer]

Anyway, Maya Cummings is now running for her husbands seat.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/CATargetBot/status/1194722882489683969

Nope. Nooooope. Big Nope. NOOOOOPPPPE. No. NO. Nope. NOPE

[Oryxslayer]

Today's the Jungle for CA-25. Polls close at 11 ET. If no one hits 50%, runoff on May 12.

Reminder that we may not know who moves on/won until April...or we may know tonight.

[Oryxslayer]

With the obvious caveat that votes will continue to be counted until March 18, Dems have to be concerned that in the CA-25 Special Jungle, Rs have received 52.6% to Dems getting 47.4%.

The caveat is a big one because the assumption is that California Dems held on to their ballots much later than Republicans because of the uncertainty around the presidential primary.

And that we have only about half the votes counted.

And that we know the later ballots are always more democratic than what is counted on e-night.

And that primary turnout does not even influence the GE, if it did, the GOP would still hold all those Clinton CDs in CA after 2018.

Essentially, wulfric is posting in bad faith here. I wouldn't try to claim the Dems getting a majority of the primary vote in TX for instance points to a competitive TX race in November, if I wanted to do that there are far more legitimate data points to use.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/VanceUlrich/status/1241222417684389890?s=19

Inevitable given the circumstances

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/VanceUlrich/status/1241222417684389890?s=19

Inevitable given the circumstances

This tweet has been deleted. What was it about?

Something about the CA count, can't remember.

[Oryxslayer]

Results page  for tonight's barnburner: https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/06/23/us/elections/results-new-york-house-district-27-special-general-election.amp.html

are we really getting any results tonight?

Yes. But not the large early vote, so tonights results will be indicators towards the final result rather than definitive conclusions.

[Oryxslayer]

Are we done with these for the year and should I unsticky the thread?

NY-23 is still counting but any other elections will be held concurrent with the GE for super short terms or not held at all.

Oh, ok, I wasn't following that final results haven't come in yet. I'll update. 

They almost all came in just now, looks like it will end in a day or two.

Niagara County results:
Jacobs 14,099
McMurray 12,041

https://buffalonews.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/near-final-vote-count-pulls-mcmurray-to-within-5-3-points-of-jacobs-in-ny/article_306a4e0e-c615-11ea-8392-53d33d3493d2.html