Election 2018 Open Thread - Part 1

[Oryxslayer]

I haven't been following the California dumps that closely.  I know it's going to be tough for Kim and Walters (though I think both still have a shot), but does it still look like Cox is going to win Orange County?

Depends. The trendline is very favorable to Newson, along with the precedence from the primary, but he has to net 30K votes. Anyone know how many still remain in OC?

There are still 300K votes in the OC.

Yeah then OC probably flips before Thanksgiving or so depending on the size of the drops.

[Oryxslayer]

Kim lead in CD-39 whittled down to 711 votes.

This with or without today's LA numbers? Are we still waiting on them, or was OC the last of the night?

[Oryxslayer]

Kim lead in CD-39 whittled down to 711 votes.

This with or without today's LA numbers? Are we still waiting on them, or was OC the last of the night?

OC and LA.

Okay then. CA-39 probably flips Thursday then.

[Oryxslayer]

Kim lead in CD-39 whittled down to 711 votes.

This with or without today's LA numbers? Are we still waiting on them, or was OC the last of the night?

OC and LA.

I am confused. This is with both OC and LA? san bernadino is probably even and kim wins then.

Kim wins today yes. But tomorrow? What about the day after that? And the day after that? And the day after that...

CA counts until December 6. Its obvious this seat is flipping in < 3 days.

[Oryxslayer]

I'm just glad Utah isn't a swing state. Could you imagine if the Presidential race came down to swing state Utah with how slow they count?

Even worse: swing state California making us wait three weeks to see who the President is.

Arizona is widely expected to be a 2020 swing state...

[Oryxslayer]

Also, lol:

https://twitter.com/DrewGodinich/status/1062546740337770497

LMAO. Gotta love all these Republicans in Clinton districts who were arrogant enough to think they were safe. I wonder how they felt when they got that cold hard slap of reality.

I mean there was chatter in the months before the election that the Gas tax would bring a bunch of Republicans to the polls but I never found anything beyond spin. And in the last month we could tell this line was failing - multiple quality polls found different gaps is Yes and No responses. What this should have told them is that there were very few committed partisans on this issue beyond the normal base, there were a lot of leaners who saw the issue as just another ballot question.

[Oryxslayer]

Starting to think Nate McMurray may win NY-27. He's winning absentees OUTSIDE OF ERIE AND NIAGARA with 60%, which is more than what he needs to close that margin. I especially think Erie and Niagara are friendlier.

So we’d have two 2 year rental seats then if he wins?

What is the other one that we are 100% sure about? 

Probably NM-02. Judging from History, Pearce probably runs again and wins his his seat back.

[Oryxslayer]

Starting to think Nate McMurray may win NY-27. He's winning absentees OUTSIDE OF ERIE AND NIAGARA with 60%, which is more than what he needs to close that margin. I especially think Erie and Niagara are friendlier.

Where is the updated count available? I had written this one off.

Wasserman has Collins up 132,402 to 129,594, but I'm not sure how current this is.

Its behind the NYT/CNN/WashPo/etc numbers for example.

[Oryxslayer]

So this puts dems at 228 seats called. Including dem advantaged seats (CA39, CA45, NM02, NY22, ME02, UT04), dems 234.

[Oryxslayer]

It's a good thing for Dems that their majority is mostly built off more durable suburban districts rather than very Trumpy districts which probably would've been one term rentals like NC-09, KY-06, IL-12, WV-03, KS-02, etc.

Yep. Dems have good reason to be very happy about how the House elections went. Less so the Senate (depending partly on how FL turns out), but not only did Dems pick up a lot of seats in the House, but they picked up the ones that are more holdable in the future.

Downside is that there are less house seats to grab from the GOP later to protect the majority - I count around 10 left on the table, mostly in PA/NY/TX.